Furman
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#126
Expected Predictive Rating+16.3#23
Pace64.9#284
Improvement-1.3#268

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#157
First Shot-0.5#186
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#127
Layup/Dunks-3.8#306
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#39
Freethrows-1.2#255
Improvement-0.4#215

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#115
First Shot+4.9#41
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#343
Layups/Dunks-4.1#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.9#1
Freethrows-0.3#208
Improvement-0.9#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 22.0% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 12.8
.500 or above 99.5% 99.8% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 94.2% 89.9%
Conference Champion 27.3% 30.5% 22.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round20.0% 22.0% 17.0%
Second Round2.5% 2.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Away) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 37 - 48 - 6
Quad 414 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 129   @ Belmont W 76-74 40%     1 - 0 +6.9 +2.9 +4.0
  Nov 11, 2024 204   Jacksonville W 78-69 76%     2 - 0 +3.9 +1.8 +1.7
  Nov 15, 2024 203   Tulane W 75-67 76%     3 - 0 +2.9 +3.7 -0.3
  Nov 23, 2024 299   @ Charleston Southern W 67-46 74%     4 - 0 +16.7 -3.2 +21.3
  Nov 26, 2024 140   Seattle W 61-56 54%     5 - 0 +6.1 -3.8 +10.6
  Nov 30, 2024 10   @ Kansas L 51-86 6%     5 - 1 -14.6 -8.2 -8.4
  Dec 04, 2024 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 76-73 51%     6 - 1 +5.0 +8.4 -3.2
  Dec 07, 2024 119   Princeton W 69-63 59%     7 - 1 +5.8 -0.9 +7.2
  Dec 14, 2024 262   South Carolina St. W 68-64 84%     8 - 1 -4.6 +2.2 -6.1
  Dec 21, 2024 232   @ Harvard W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 01, 2025 308   @ Western Carolina W 73-66 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 08, 2025 345   @ The Citadel W 72-61 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 163   Wofford W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 147   East Tennessee St. W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 178   Chattanooga W 74-68 72%    
  Jan 22, 2025 350   @ VMI W 75-64 85%    
  Jan 25, 2025 229   @ Mercer W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 109   Samford W 79-78 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 147   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 308   Western Carolina W 76-63 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 178   @ Chattanooga W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 229   Mercer W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 109   @ Samford L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 350   VMI W 78-61 94%    
  Feb 26, 2025 345   The Citadel W 75-58 93%    
  Mar 01, 2025 163   @ Wofford L 68-69 49%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.7 7.4 7.9 5.2 2.1 0.4 27.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.3 8.7 5.4 1.5 0.1 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.1 7.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.9 2.3 0.2 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.7 1.1 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.8 10.4 13.6 15.6 15.7 13.2 9.4 5.4 2.1 0.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.0 0.0
16-2 97.4% 5.2    4.7 0.5
15-3 84.0% 7.9    5.8 2.0 0.1
14-4 55.9% 7.4    3.5 3.3 0.6 0.0
13-5 23.4% 3.7    0.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.3% 27.3 17.5 7.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 56.3% 52.9% 3.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7.2%
17-1 2.1% 46.6% 45.8% 0.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.1 1.4%
16-2 5.4% 39.8% 39.8% 0.1% 12.0 0.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.2 0.1%
15-3 9.4% 34.7% 34.7% 12.2 0.2 2.3 0.8 0.0 6.1
14-4 13.2% 28.5% 28.5% 12.4 0.1 2.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 9.4
13-5 15.7% 22.6% 22.6% 12.7 0.0 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.2
12-6 15.6% 16.4% 16.4% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 13.0
11-7 13.6% 12.8% 12.8% 13.2 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 11.9
10-8 10.4% 9.4% 9.4% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 9.4
9-9 6.8% 7.4% 7.4% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.3
8-10 4.0% 5.7% 5.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.8
7-11 2.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 9.0 7.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.2 2.3 4.7 10.5 7.0 8.1 15.1 14.0 26.7 11.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 12.5% 11.0 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 13.8% 11.3 10.3 3.4