Tulane
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#203
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#312
Pace68.3#196
Improvement-0.8#248

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#191
First Shot+0.1#167
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#236
Layup/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#143
Freethrows+1.5#93
Improvement-0.4#217

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#207
First Shot-1.2#206
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#193
Layups/Dunks+3.9#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#348
Freethrows-2.8#333
Improvement-0.4#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 13.2% 23.5% 8.0%
.500 or above in Conference 32.4% 49.0% 23.9%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 13.4% 5.5% 17.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 14
Quad 48 - 512 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 326   Louisiana Monroe W 80-64 83%     1 - 0 +3.8 -1.1 +4.1
  Nov 11, 2024 343   Alcorn St. W 84-51 87%     2 - 0 +18.7 +11.2 +10.4
  Nov 15, 2024 126   @ Furman L 67-75 24%     2 - 1 -2.8 +1.3 -4.6
  Nov 19, 2024 289   Bethune-Cookman W 72-57 77%     3 - 1 +5.2 -1.9 +7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 346   New Orleans L 87-93 OT 88%     3 - 2 -20.7 -7.2 -12.5
  Nov 26, 2024 187   Wyoming L 63-64 47%     3 - 3 -2.3 -6.1 +3.8
  Nov 27, 2024 129   Belmont L 66-89 35%     3 - 4 -21.1 -7.2 -14.3
  Dec 02, 2024 230   SE Louisiana L 67-71 67%     3 - 5 -10.7 -2.5 -8.4
  Dec 07, 2024 83   @ George Mason L 64-76 14%     3 - 6 -2.4 +2.2 -5.4
  Dec 10, 2024 282   Southern Miss W 86-58 76%     4 - 6 +18.6 +9.8 +8.7
  Dec 14, 2024 65   Florida St. L 64-77 16%     4 - 7 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6
  Dec 31, 2024 170   @ Charlotte L 67-71 34%    
  Jan 04, 2025 234   Texas San Antonio W 80-75 67%    
  Jan 07, 2025 137   @ UAB L 75-81 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 145   South Florida W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 15, 2025 84   Florida Atlantic L 76-82 30%    
  Jan 19, 2025 118   @ Temple L 69-77 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 197   @ Rice L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 30, 2025 34   Memphis L 72-83 15%    
  Feb 02, 2025 247   Tulsa W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 05, 2025 234   @ Texas San Antonio L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 72   @ North Texas L 57-70 13%    
  Feb 15, 2025 197   Rice W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 164   East Carolina W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 23, 2025 100   @ Wichita St. L 69-79 18%    
  Feb 26, 2025 170   Charlotte W 70-68 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 247   @ Tulsa L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 06, 2025 164   @ East Carolina L 67-72 34%    
  Mar 09, 2025 137   UAB L 77-78 49%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.6 4.9 0.8 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.0 6.0 1.6 0.1 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.8 2.7 0.2 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.8 3.7 0.5 10.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.6 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.2 7.3 10.8 13.6 15.1 14.1 11.8 8.9 5.8 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 89.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 55.4% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 31.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 10.7% 10.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 6.6% 6.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 6.9% 6.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.5% 5.0% 5.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-6 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
11-7 5.8% 1.8% 1.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.7
10-8 8.9% 1.3% 1.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.8
9-9 11.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 11.7
8-10 14.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 14.1
7-11 15.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.1
6-12 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-13 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
4-14 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.3
3-15 4.2% 4.2
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%