Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#307
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#304
Pace64.5#284
Improvement+6.2#8

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#313
First Shot-5.5#322
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#167
Layup/Dunks-5.0#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#214
Freethrows-1.2#266
Improvement+2.5#63

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#268
First Shot-2.4#250
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#260
Layups/Dunks+2.0#92
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.2#361
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement+3.7#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 9.8% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.1% 9.7% 7.5%
First Round3.9% 4.8% 3.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Away) - 28.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 40 - 9
Quad 30 - 40 - 13
Quad 412 - 612 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 68   @ Utah L 59-100 5%     0 - 1 -30.2 -4.8 -27.8
  Nov 06, 2024 45   @ Utah St. L 46-101 3%     0 - 2 -41.1 -23.5 -17.7
  Nov 11, 2024 144   @ Tulane L 51-84 13%     0 - 3 -29.4 -15.8 -16.5
  Nov 19, 2024 64   @ TCU L 48-71 5%     0 - 4 -12.1 -12.7 -1.0
  Nov 22, 2024 90   @ Washington L 60-77 7%     0 - 5 -8.7 -3.2 -7.0
  Nov 24, 2024 149   @ UC Riverside L 52-69 14%     0 - 6 -13.8 -18.0 +3.5
  Nov 29, 2024 133   @ South Alabama L 65-74 OT 12%     0 - 7 -4.9 +1.1 -6.6
  Dec 01, 2024 13   @ Maryland L 58-96 1%     0 - 8 -17.5 -7.0 -9.0
  Dec 04, 2024 115   @ Wichita St. L 54-78 10%     0 - 9 -18.6 -15.4 -3.3
  Dec 07, 2024 50   @ Oklahoma L 78-94 3%     0 - 10 -2.6 +8.6 -10.7
  Dec 16, 2024 178   @ Rice L 75-77 17%     0 - 11 -0.4 -0.7 +0.4
  Dec 22, 2024 104   @ UAB L 74-91 9%     0 - 12 -10.3 +4.7 -16.4
  Jan 04, 2025 271   Jackson St. L 69-72 49%     0 - 13 0 - 1 -11.3 -1.3 -10.2
  Jan 11, 2025 359   Alabama A&M W 62-52 80%     1 - 13 1 - 1 -7.2 -14.7 +8.0
  Jan 13, 2025 311   Alabama St. W 67-65 61%     2 - 13 2 - 1 -9.3 -5.3 -3.8
  Jan 18, 2025 296   @ Texas Southern L 57-66 37%     2 - 14 2 - 2 -14.0 -10.7 -3.8
  Jan 20, 2025 356   @ Prairie View W 78-70 61%     3 - 14 3 - 2 -3.2 -3.9 +0.3
  Jan 25, 2025 321   Florida A&M L 64-65 63%     3 - 15 3 - 3 -13.0 -7.2 -5.9
  Jan 27, 2025 293   Bethune-Cookman W 70-61 56%     4 - 15 4 - 3 -0.9 -0.6 +0.4
  Feb 01, 2025 224   @ Southern L 69-74 23%     4 - 16 4 - 4 -5.8 -2.1 -3.6
  Feb 03, 2025 327   @ Grambling St. W 60-53 47%     5 - 16 5 - 4 -0.6 -5.4 +5.8
  Feb 08, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-60 90%     6 - 16 6 - 4 -3.3 -7.2 +3.4
  Feb 10, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 86-39 97%     7 - 16 7 - 4 +16.1 +9.2 +12.4
  Feb 15, 2025 293   @ Bethune-Cookman W 78-74 36%     8 - 16 8 - 4 -0.8 +6.5 -7.1
  Feb 17, 2025 321   @ Florida A&M L 76-85 44%     8 - 17 8 - 5 -15.9 +5.3 -21.9
  Feb 22, 2025 271   @ Jackson St. L 67-72 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 356   Prairie View W 77-69 79%    
  Mar 03, 2025 296   Texas Southern W 69-67 58%    
  Mar 06, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 74-57 94%    
  Mar 08, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-70 78%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 6.2 10.5 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.0 23.0 0.3 28.2 3rd
4th 0.5 13.7 6.9 21.0 4th
5th 0.0 3.6 12.5 0.2 16.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 8.2 3.5 12.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 2.7 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 2.7 15.0 34.8 36.2 11.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 1.2 9.8
12-6 36.2% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 3.6 32.6
11-7 34.8% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 2.4 32.4
10-8 15.0% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.8 14.3
9-9 2.7% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.2 2.5
8-10 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 16.0 8.2 91.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.2%