Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#219
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#184
Pace70.7#117
Improvement+2.6#69

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#314
First Shot-5.6#326
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#159
Layup/Dunks+2.2#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#334
Freethrows-0.9#244
Improvement-0.1#183

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot+3.2#84
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#285
Layups/Dunks+3.6#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#311
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement+2.7#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.0% 33.6% 28.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 94.9% 96.3% 85.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 66.9% 69.9% 45.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.3% 8.8% 13.1%
First Round28.5% 29.4% 22.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Away) - 87.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 11 - 7
Quad 417 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 268   @ South Dakota L 79-93 50%     0 - 1 -17.3 -9.7 -6.0
  Nov 07, 2024 50   @ Iowa L 74-89 7%     0 - 2 -1.6 -0.1 -0.9
  Nov 13, 2024 354   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 76%     0 - 3 -12.7 -8.9 -3.8
  Nov 20, 2024 21   @ Texas A&M L 54-71 3%     0 - 4 +1.1 -5.1 +4.9
  Nov 30, 2024 120   @ Louisiana Tech W 73-70 21%     1 - 4 +8.4 +1.7 +6.7
  Dec 07, 2024 251   @ Tulsa W 70-66 46%     2 - 4 +1.7 +2.4 -0.4
  Dec 17, 2024 19   @ Mississippi L 61-74 3%     2 - 5 +5.3 -4.4 +10.2
  Dec 20, 2024 152   @ Loyola Marymount L 73-89 26%     2 - 6 -12.4 +4.8 -17.5
  Dec 22, 2024 61   @ USC L 51-82 9%     2 - 7 -19.2 -19.0 +1.6
  Dec 30, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 43-77 7%     2 - 8 -20.7 -20.4 -2.1
  Jan 04, 2025 300   @ Texas Southern W 67-58 57%     3 - 8 1 - 0 +4.0 -5.0 +9.0
  Jan 06, 2025 330   @ Prairie View W 84-80 67%     4 - 8 2 - 0 -3.9 -2.7 -1.6
  Jan 11, 2025 360   Florida A&M W 91-57 90%     5 - 8 3 - 0 +16.6 +15.3 +2.9
  Jan 13, 2025 255   Bethune-Cookman W 69-53 68%     6 - 8 4 - 0 +7.9 -7.3 +14.3
  Jan 18, 2025 325   Grambling St. W 67-60 82%     7 - 8 5 - 0 -5.8 -8.4 +2.9
  Jan 25, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-72 88%    
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 75-56 97%    
  Feb 01, 2025 332   Alcorn St. W 72-61 85%    
  Feb 03, 2025 278   Jackson St. W 71-65 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 358   @ Alabama A&M W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 10, 2025 299   @ Alabama St. W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 330   Prairie View W 79-69 84%    
  Feb 17, 2025 300   Texas Southern W 72-65 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 325   @ Grambling St. W 68-64 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 255   @ Bethune-Cookman L 67-68 46%    
  Mar 03, 2025 360   @ Florida A&M W 74-65 78%    
  Mar 06, 2025 299   Alabama St. W 75-68 75%    
  Mar 08, 2025 358   Alabama A&M W 78-64 90%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 8.5 18.3 20.5 13.4 4.5 66.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 6.1 8.3 4.4 0.8 0.1 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.3 1.0 0.1 7.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.5 11.6 17.8 22.7 21.3 13.4 4.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.5    4.5
17-1 99.6% 13.4    13.0 0.4
16-2 96.1% 20.5    17.9 2.6 0.0
15-3 80.5% 18.3    11.7 5.9 0.6 0.0
14-4 47.8% 8.5    3.1 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.2% 1.8    0.1 0.8 0.6 0.2
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 66.9% 66.9 50.3 13.7 2.5 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.5% 49.1% 49.1% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.3
17-1 13.4% 42.7% 42.7% 14.8 0.1 1.5 3.7 0.4 7.7
16-2 21.3% 39.8% 39.8% 15.4 0.4 4.6 3.5 12.8
15-3 22.7% 31.9% 31.9% 15.7 0.0 2.0 5.3 15.5
14-4 17.8% 29.2% 29.2% 15.9 0.4 4.8 12.6
13-5 11.6% 22.7% 22.7% 16.0 0.1 2.6 8.9
12-6 5.5% 19.0% 19.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0 4.4
11-7 2.2% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.4 1.8
10-8 0.8% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.1 0.7
9-9 0.2% 19.0% 19.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.0% 33.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 10.9 18.0 67.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 13.5 0.5 8.2 43.2 42.3 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%