USC
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#65
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#50
Pace70.3#149
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#98
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 3.7% 4.4% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 9.6% 11.2% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.2% 36.9% 19.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.9% 35.5% 19.1%
Average Seed 7.9 7.8 8.4
.500 or above 72.2% 78.1% 51.0%
.500 or above in Conference 35.7% 38.7% 24.6%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.3% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 10.5% 18.9%
First Four4.4% 4.7% 3.2%
First Round30.8% 34.3% 18.1%
Second Round16.5% 18.6% 8.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.5% 6.4% 2.4%
Elite Eight2.0% 2.3% 0.7%
Final Four0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: California (Home) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 9
Quad 24 - 37 - 12
Quad 34 - 111 - 13
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 179   Chattanooga W 77-51 87%     1 - 0 +22.2 +5.5 +18.1
  Nov 07, 2024 265   Idaho St. W 75-69 93%     2 - 0 -2.3 +4.1 -6.1
  Nov 13, 2024 160   Texas Arlington W 98-95 85%     3 - 0 +0.5 +8.7 -8.6
  Nov 17, 2024 119   California W 80-72 78%    
  Nov 20, 2024 251   San Jose St. W 80-64 93%    
  Nov 24, 2024 241   Grambling St. W 77-62 92%    
  Nov 28, 2024 40   St. Mary's L 70-72 41%    
  Dec 04, 2024 39   Oregon W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 07, 2024 79   @ Washington L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 15, 2024 165   Montana St. W 82-70 85%    
  Dec 18, 2024 202   Cal St. Northridge W 85-71 89%    
  Dec 22, 2024 273   Southern W 82-65 94%    
  Jan 04, 2025 25   Michigan L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 08, 2025 24   @ Indiana L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 20   @ Illinois L 73-81 24%    
  Jan 14, 2025 45   Iowa W 83-82 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 38   Wisconsin W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 22, 2025 67   @ Nebraska L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 27, 2025 30   UCLA L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 27   Michigan St. L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 04, 2025 50   @ Northwestern L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 07, 2025 15   @ Purdue L 71-80 22%    
  Feb 11, 2025 36   Penn St. W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 88   Minnesota W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 20, 2025 31   @ Maryland L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 23, 2025 37   @ Rutgers L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 26, 2025 17   Ohio St. L 72-74 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 39   @ Oregon L 71-76 32%    
  Mar 05, 2025 79   Washington W 78-74 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 30   @ UCLA L 65-72 28%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 1.8 0.2 5.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.3 1.8 0.1 5.8 10th
11th 0.2 2.1 3.4 0.5 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 3.8 1.7 0.1 6.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 7.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 1.4 0.0 7.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.5 2.3 0.3 7.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.8 17th
18th 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 7.4 18th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.7 5.8 8.1 10.1 11.2 11.5 11.1 10.1 8.4 6.5 4.4 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 96.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 86.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 64.1% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 30.5% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.9% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 3.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.7% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.0% 99.3% 12.4% 86.9% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-7 4.4% 97.6% 6.4% 91.2% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.4%
12-8 6.5% 92.8% 3.5% 89.2% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 92.5%
11-9 8.4% 80.4% 2.5% 77.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.0 1.6 79.9%
10-10 10.1% 58.7% 0.9% 57.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 0.2 4.2 58.3%
9-11 11.1% 27.0% 0.6% 26.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 0.3 8.1 26.5%
8-12 11.5% 7.5% 0.2% 7.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 10.7 7.3%
7-13 11.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2 0.7%
6-14 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 10.1
5-15 8.1% 8.1
4-16 5.8% 5.8
3-17 3.7% 3.7
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 33.2% 1.8% 31.4% 7.9 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.4 5.1 4.7 4.7 0.7 0.0 66.8 31.9%