USC
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#80
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#102
Pace69.7#160
Improvement+2.9#29

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#94
First Shot+6.2#39
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#328
Layup/Dunks+4.6#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#278
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement-0.2#192

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#81
First Shot+2.2#109
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#66
Layups/Dunks-0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#112
Freethrows-0.1#191
Improvement+3.1#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 9.0% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.7% 8.7% 3.4%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 9.6
.500 or above 38.5% 42.7% 20.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.2% 17.4% 10.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.4% 10.6% 14.9%
First Four2.0% 2.2% 1.2%
First Round6.9% 7.8% 2.9%
Second Round2.9% 3.3% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 11
Quad 23 - 46 - 15
Quad 33 - 29 - 17
Quad 46 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 178   Chattanooga W 77-51 84%     1 - 0 +22.1 +4.6 +19.0
  Nov 07, 2024 231   Idaho St. W 75-69 89%     2 - 0 -0.8 +3.9 -4.4
  Nov 13, 2024 162   Texas Arlington W 98-95 83%     3 - 0 -0.2 +9.0 -9.6
  Nov 17, 2024 120   California L 66-71 75%     3 - 1 -5.3 -6.2 +0.6
  Nov 20, 2024 185   San Jose St. W 82-68 85%     4 - 1 +9.8 +13.3 -2.1
  Nov 24, 2024 287   Grambling St. W 80-69 93%     5 - 1 +1.3 +7.0 -5.2
  Nov 28, 2024 41   St. Mary's L 36-71 32%     5 - 2 -23.4 -25.1 -3.0
  Nov 29, 2024 71   New Mexico L 73-83 47%     5 - 3 -2.2 +1.3 -3.2
  Dec 04, 2024 23   Oregon L 60-68 34%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +3.0 -6.5 +9.4
  Dec 07, 2024 96   @ Washington W 85-61 43%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +32.6 +19.0 +13.9
  Dec 15, 2024 139   Montana St. W 89-63 80%     7 - 4 +24.1 +8.3 +13.9
  Dec 18, 2024 148   Cal St. Northridge W 81-72 81%    
  Dec 22, 2024 223   Southern W 76-63 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 20   Michigan L 71-76 34%    
  Jan 08, 2025 46   @ Indiana L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 70-81 15%    
  Jan 14, 2025 43   Iowa L 79-80 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 35   Wisconsin L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 22, 2025 52   @ Nebraska L 70-76 28%    
  Jan 27, 2025 17   UCLA L 64-69 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 14   Michigan St. L 69-74 31%    
  Feb 04, 2025 59   @ Northwestern L 64-69 31%    
  Feb 07, 2025 22   @ Purdue L 68-78 18%    
  Feb 11, 2025 31   Penn St. L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 114   Minnesota W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 69-80 17%    
  Feb 23, 2025 62   @ Rutgers L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 39   Ohio St. L 71-73 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 68-78 18%    
  Mar 05, 2025 96   Washington W 74-70 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 17   @ UCLA L 61-72 16%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.8 1.8 0.1 5.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 3.7 0.6 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.3 0.1 7.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.5 0.8 0.0 9.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.9 2.3 0.1 11.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.2 4.1 0.5 0.0 13.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.7 4.9 1.0 0.0 14.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 11.7 17th
18th 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.8 18th
Total 0.3 1.6 4.4 8.7 12.8 15.6 15.7 13.9 11.0 7.4 4.4 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 32.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 14.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.5% 97.1% 8.6% 88.5% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.8%
13-7 1.1% 88.4% 4.0% 84.4% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 87.9%
12-8 2.5% 70.9% 2.4% 68.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 70.2%
11-9 4.4% 48.6% 1.5% 47.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.0 2.3 47.8%
10-10 7.4% 23.3% 0.7% 22.6% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 5.7 22.8%
9-11 11.0% 5.1% 0.2% 5.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.4 5.0%
8-12 13.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.8 0.5%
7-13 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 15.7 0.0%
6-14 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 15.6
5-15 12.8% 12.8
4-16 8.7% 8.7
3-17 4.4% 4.4
2-18 1.6% 1.6
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20
Total 100% 8.0% 0.3% 7.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.0 0.2 92.0 7.7%