USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +8.7 70
Results Rating +11.9 46
Consistency 0.13 95
Pace 75.7 25
Improvement -7.5 360

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 96 B- B C A+ C-
Defense B 42 B B C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 95 B 63% 65 +4.1 46
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 88 B- 42% 68 +2.1 72
Three Pointers 34% 314 C 34% 171 -3.3 289
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 219 B- +3.1 82
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 87
Second Chance B 35.5% 45 C 1.04 163 B 0.37 65
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.4% 278
Other Turnovers B- 6.6% 92
Turnovers C 17.0% 202
Freethrows A+ 0.42 1 C+ 73% 163 A+ 0.30 2
Total Offense B- +3.1 96

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B+ 61% 19 B- 9.4% 90
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 52 C 5.1% 190
Three Pointers D- 76% 331 B 0.3% 44
Total B- 59% 93 C+ 5.2% 139


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 198 B 52% 47 -2.4 99
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 126 D- 43% 333 +1.6 307
Three Pointers 40% 220 A- 30% 22 -3.2 48
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 125 B -3.8 41
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 45
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 119 B+ 0.90 24 B 0.26 48
Turnovers from Steals C 9.3% 195
Other Turnovers B 8.4% 53
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 118
Freethrows B- 0.28 105 D- 76% 335 C+ 0.21 154
Total Defense B +5.6 42

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 83 A 19.1% 12
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 150 B- 6.7% 73
Three Pointers C+ 82% 134 A- 2.1% 22
Total B 50% 68 A 9.6% 9

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.8 38 17.7 250
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 116 0.16 141
Consistency 0.12 189 0.10 22
Improvement -6.1 359 -1.4 263

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 77 68 58
Results Rating Rank 59 50 43
Conference Record 7 - 13 7 - 13 8 - 12
Conference Finish 13 12 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 7% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3% 7% 0%
Average Seed 11.2 11.1 11.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 7% 0%
First Round1% 3% 0%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 10
Quad 27 - 210 - 12
Quad 34 - 114 - 14
Quad 44 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 226 Cal Poly W 94 - 64 92% +12  97% 1 - 0 A+ +23 C- -0 C+ D D+ A+ +19 A- A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 324 Manhattan W 114 - 83 97% +16  91% 2 - 0 A- +17 A +12 D+ A+ C+ C+ +0 C- A C-
 Fri, Nov 14 99 Illinois St. W 87 - 67 63% +12  95% 3 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +17 A A- A+ A +9 A+ B- C-
 Thu, Nov 20 151 Troy W 107 - 106 3OT 85% +2  60% 4 - 0 C -2 D+ -3 C- F A- C+ +1 B+ F B+
 Mon, Nov 24 59 Boise St. W 70 - 67 47% +2  64% 5 - 0 B+ +12 C- -2 B D+ F+ A+ +14 A+ B A+
 Tue, Nov 25 52 Seton Hall W 83 - 81 42% -2  37% 6 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +19 A+ A C D -6 F A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 26 57 Arizona St. W 88 - 75 46% +4  76% 7 - 0 A +23 A+ +22 A+ A+ B C+ +1 D+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 83 @Oregon W 82 - 77 45% -1  46% 8 - 0 1 - 0 A- +15 A+ +15 A+ A F C+ +1 D- C+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 49 Washington L 76 - 84 52% +8  84% 8 - 1 1 - 1 C +0 C +1 D C A C -1 A- D- B-
 Tue, Dec 9 238 @San Diego W 94 - 81 83% +5  59% 9 - 1 B+ +12 B +6 A+ B- F B +4 A- C C
 Sun, Dec 14 128 Washington St. W 68 - 61 82% +6  98% 10 - 1 B- +6 F -10 F D- C- A+ +17 A A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 335 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 70 98% +10  69% 11 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +9 A+ B- C+ C+ +2 B+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 2 @Michigan L 66 - 96 3% -16  0% 11 - 2 1 - 2 C +0 D -5 C+ D+ F A +10 A- A+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 9 @Michigan St. L 51 - 80 9% -14  13% 11 - 3 1 - 3 D+ -6 F -12 F+ C+ F A- +7 D- A+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 61 @Minnesota W 70 - 69 OT 37% +3  68% 12 - 3 2 - 3 B+ +13 B- +5 A- F+ F A- +8 B+ C+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 109 Maryland W 88 - 71 78% +4  69% 13 - 3 3 - 3 A- +18 A+ +16 A- B- A+ B- +2 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 8 Purdue L 64 - 69 20% +2  53% 13 - 4 3 - 4 B+ +12 D -6 D A+ D+ A+ +18 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 66 Northwestern L 68 - 74 61% -1  31% 13 - 5 3 - 5 C -0 D+ -3 D- C- A+ B- +2 A A- F+
 Sun, Jan 25 24 @Wisconsin W 73 - 71 17% +1  58% 14 - 5 4 - 5 A +21 A- +11 C- B+ A+ A +10 A+ C- D
 Wed, Jan 28 29 @Iowa L 72 - 73 18% -1  51% 14 - 6 4 - 6 A- +17 B +7 A B- C A +11 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 108 Rutgers W 78 - 75 78% +10  91% 15 - 6 5 - 6 C+ +4 C+ +2 A+ D+ F C+ +1 A D D-
 Tue, Feb 3 39 Indiana W 81 - 75 42% +5  87% 16 - 6 6 - 6 A- +17 B +6 A A+ F A +10 A- A+ C
 Sun, Feb 8 119 @Penn St. W 77 - 75 61% -1  46% 17 - 6 7 - 6 B- +8 C- -1 F+ A+ D+ A +9 D+ B A+
 Wed, Feb 11 28 @Ohio St. L 82 - 89 18% +0  48% 17 - 7 7 - 7 B +11 B+ +9 B- B+ A- B- +3 C- A+ B-
 Wed, Feb 18 5 Illinois L 65 - 101 16% -21  0% 17 - 8 7 - 8 F+ -17 D -6 C- B F F -10 F+ D C
 Sat, Feb 21 83 Oregon L 70 - 71 68% +1  52% 17 - 9 7 - 9 C+ +3 C- -2 D- B+ B- B+ +5 B+ D- A
 Tue, Feb 24 30 @UCLA L 62 - 81 19% -6  19% 17 - 10 7 - 10 C -1 D+ -3 D+ A- D C+ +0 D A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 15 Nebraska L 67 - 82 26% -4  39% 17 - 11 7 - 11 C +1 C+ +3 B D+ C C- -2 A F A-
 Wed, Mar 4 49 @Washington L 72 - 91 30% -1  58% 17 - 12 7 - 12 C- -5 C- -2 D B+ C C -1 B- D C-
 Sat, Mar 7 30 UCLA L 74 - 77 38%
Totals 17 - 13 7 - 13 +9 B- +3 B B- C- B +6 C C+ A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B B- C B- 42% 46% 34% C- B- B C B C A+ C+ A+ B B D- A- B 38% 22% 40% C+ B C+ B+ B C+ B- D- C+
1.13 63% 42% 34% +3 0 1.08 35% 1.0 .37 17% .42 73% .30 1.01 52% 43% 30% -4 0 0.94 29% 0.9 .26 18% .28 76% .31
Nov
3		 Cal Poly C- C F B+ C 46% 9% 44% B+ C+ B F D D+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ A 48% 4% 48% F+ A- D- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.13 60% 20% 38% +2 +2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 17% .58 68% .39 0.77 44% 50% 30% -9 +3 0.89 35% 0.6 .21 27% .20 58% .12
Nov
9		 Manhattan A B F B D 48% 23% 30% C D+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A- F B C 42% 19% 38% D C- B- A+ A C- F C- F
1.39 66% 21% 39% +2 0 1.07 52% 1.3 .65 15% .46 75% .34 1.01 45% 60% 30% -3 0 0.96 24% 0.7 .17 15% .51 81% .41
Nov
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ A+ D- A 42% 24% 34% B A B A A- A+ A+ D A+ A A+ F A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% C- A+ F A+ B- C- B+ F C-
1.26 71% 50% 29% +6 0 1.14 31% 1.2 .38 6% .54 66% .35 0.97 44% 60% 22% -9 0 0.84 40% 0.7 .28 16% .22 92% .21
Nov
20		 Troy D+ C B+ D C 37% 24% 39% C- C- F B F A- A+ B- A+ C+ B A+ B B+ 47% 16% 37% C+ B+ F D+ F B+ F B- F
1.06 56% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.01 16% 1.1 .18 13% .52 74% .39 1.05 52% 27% 31% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .46 20% .43 71% .31
Nov
24		 Boise St. C- F B- A+ B+ 30% 28% 42% C- B C+ F D+ F+ B D- C+ A+ A- F A+ A+ 50% 10% 40% F+ A+ C+ B+ B A+ A+ F A+
1.01 40% 43% 48% +4 -2 1.08 23% 0.9 .19 19% .30 65% .19 0.96 50% 60% 24% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.9 .31 22% .20 91% .18
Nov
25		 Seton Hall A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 50% 28% 23% C- A+ A B+ A C A+ A+ A+ D D- F D+ F 43% 31% 26% A- F A+ A+ A+ D- B- B+ B
1.20 60% 27% 56% +5 0 1.13 41% 1.0 .41 23% .71 82% .58 1.17 65% 65% 36% +12 -1 1.24 17% 0.8 .14 13% .30 67% .20
Nov
26		 Arizona St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 30% 43% D- A+ A+ B A+ B B F C- C+ D A+ D C- 40% 12% 49% D- D+ C+ A+ A+ B- F F F
1.33 85% 64% 45% +22 -2 1.43 50% 1.1 .54 18% .33 61% .20 1.13 65% 20% 38% +4 +1 1.12 31% 0.7 .21 17% .49 85% .42
Dec
2		 Oregon A+ B- A+ C A+ 37% 24% 39% B- A+ A+ C- A F A+ D A+ C+ A F F D- 40% 13% 47% C- D- B- D+ C+ B+ F A F
1.20 59% 73% 33% +8 -1 1.17 45% 0.9 .39 22% .47 72% .34 1.12 44% 67% 43% +5 +1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 20% .48 65% .31
Dec
6		 Washington C F F B- D 31% 31% 38% C D D+ B+ C A A+ A+ A+ C C+ B- A- A- 40% 32% 28% C+ A- D D D- B- F D- F
1.04 44% 25% 35% -8 -2 0.83 23% 1.1 .25 11% .43 86% .37 1.15 60% 38% 29% -2 -1 0.96 39% 1.2 .47 16% .41 80% .33
Dec
9		 San Diego B C+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 21% 35% C A+ F A+ B- F A+ B A+ B A+ F A- A 32% 21% 47% C A- D+ C+ C C F F F
1.20 63% 56% 60% +19 0 1.42 24% 1.7 .40 27% .61 77% .47 1.03 39% 58% 30% -5 -1 0.91 30% 0.9 .28 18% .37 83% .31
Dec
14		 Washington St. F C C+ F F 48% 27% 25% C+ F F B+ D- C- A+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ 34% 12% 54% D+ A A+ D+ A+ C B B- B
0.97 57% 42% 9% -9 0 0.84 17% 1.2 .21 16% .57 79% .45 0.87 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 18% .24 71% .17
Dec
17		 Texas San Antonio B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C A+ C B B- C+ A+ A- A+ C+ A C- A B 24% 27% 49% A B+ F C F A+ F F F
1.31 76% 44% 43% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .44 15% .44 79% .35 0.94 42% 38% 25% -11 -2 0.78 43% 0.9 .40 23% .40 83% .33
Jan
2		 Michigan D A+ D F B 18% 41% 41% F C+ B- F D+ F A+ F A+ A F A+ A+ A- 43% 12% 45% B A- A A+ A+ D+ F B- F
0.79 67% 30% 25% -7 -4 0.80 28% 0.7 .20 25% .53 64% .34 1.15 80% 29% 23% +1 +1 1.07 31% 1.1 .34 13% .54 72% .39
Jan
5		 Michigan St. F B- F F F 40% 27% 33% C+ F+ C+ C- C+ F B+ B B+ A- D+ F D- F 33% 33% 35% A- D- A+ A+ A+ C B+ B B+
0.72 58% 23% 13% -15 -1 0.71 22% 0.8 .16 24% .30 75% .22 1.13 65% 59% 39% +11 -2 1.21 31% 0.6 .19 17% .30 72% .22
Jan
9		 Minnesota B- A- A- B- A 38% 27% 35% C A- A+ F F+ F A+ A+ A+ A- C+ A D+ B 20% 22% 59% A+ B+ F A+ C+ C+ B+ A+ A
1.07 67% 46% 35% +6 -1 1.13 45% 0.3 .12 24% .34 82% .28 1.05 60% 27% 37% 0 -1 1.00 36% 0.8 .29 17% .27 60% .16
Jan
13		 Maryland A+ A+ C C- A 39% 19% 42% C A- A+ F B- A+ D+ B C- B- A F D F+ 21% 35% 44% A+ D+ A+ F A+ C F F+ F
1.30 77% 36% 33% +7 0 1.16 39% 0.8 .30 9% .26 75% .19 1.05 44% 53% 37% +4 -3 1.05 15% 1.3 .19 18% .48 78% .38
Jan
17		 Purdue D A A+ F D- 37% 27% 35% B- D B A+ A+ D+ B F F+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ 41% 20% 39% D A+ A+ D A+ C- F+ C+ D-
0.93 68% 50% 6% -8 -1 0.84 28% 1.7 .47 19% .25 36% .09 1.00 57% 20% 35% -3 0 0.96 17% 1.3 .22 12% .36 73% .26
Jan
21		 Northwestern D+ C D+ F D- 47% 33% 20% D+ D- C D+ C- A+ A+ F A+ B- D+ B A+ A 45% 31% 24% B- A A C A- F+ B F C+
1.01 57% 33% 11% -9 -1 0.82 32% 0.8 .27 9% .70 60% .42 1.10 64% 35% 15% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .29 9% .29 83% .24
Jan
25		 Wisconsin A- A- D- F C- 29% 25% 46% C- C- A+ C- B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A A+ F A+ A+ 33% 11% 56% C+ A+ F A C- D D+ D+ D+
1.14 64% 33% 27% -4 -1 0.92 35% 0.9 .32 8% .39 74% .29 1.11 44% 50% 23% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 9% .34 80% .27
Jan
28		 Iowa B B+ A+ B- A+ 38% 32% 30% D- A B- C+ B- C C- D D+ A A- A+ B+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B+ A+ D+ F F A+ F F F
1.06 67% 53% 36% +9 -1 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 22% .30 69% .21 1.07 53% 25% 30% -7 0 0.89 36% 1.3 .48 22% .41 86% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Rutgers C+ A+ A B A+ 49% 32% 20% C- A+ A+ F D+ F A+ C- A+ C+ A B- A- A 31% 38% 31% B+ A D- C+ D D- A+ C- A+
1.11 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 43% 0.6 .25 24% .56 73% .41 1.06 44% 36% 28% -8 -3 0.81 38% 1.1 .42 11% .19 75% .14
Feb
3		 Indiana B C+ A A A+ 29% 38% 33% F+ A A+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ A A- F B A 37% 7% 56% C- A- A A+ A+ C A- D B+
1.11 54% 47% 40% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.4 .54 21% .54 81% .43 1.03 52% 100% 31% 0 +2 1.05 22% 0.8 .16 14% .26 81% .21
Feb
8		 Penn St. C- C B- F F+ 44% 24% 32% C F+ B+ A+ A+ D+ A D+ A A B- F C- C- 54% 13% 33% F D+ C- A B A+ A- A+ A+
1.06 59% 42% 25% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.8 .65 21% .31 72% .23 1.04 57% 71% 35% +5 +2 1.15 29% 1.0 .29 24% .27 60% .16
Feb
11		 Ohio St. B+ B+ B- D- B+ 28% 44% 28% F B- A C B+ A- A+ C A+ B- F+ F B- D 24% 34% 42% A+ C- B A+ A+ B- D F F
1.11 64% 41% 29% +1 -4 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 14% .52 73% .38 1.21 75% 65% 33% +13 -3 1.22 31% 0.8 .23 16% .40 96% .39
Feb
18		 Illinois D F D- A+ D+ 39% 31% 30% B C- A- C B F A+ F A+ F C C F D- 48% 10% 42% D- F+ C- D+ D C F F F
0.91 33% 29% 44% -8 -1 0.83 32% 0.9 .29 20% .35 60% .21 1.41 63% 40% 48% +11 +2 1.28 43% 1.3 .57 13% .42 92% .38
Feb
21		 Oregon C- F B- F+ D- 37% 27% 35% C+ D- B B+ B+ B- A+ C A+ B+ B- B A A- 48% 20% 33% C B+ A F D- A F D F
1.00 42% 43% 28% -8 -1 0.84 34% 1.0 .34 16% .41 75% .30 1.01 55% 33% 27% -6 +1 0.91 27% 1.8 .47 21% .49 78% .38
Feb
24		 UCLA D+ A- F D D+ 27% 18% 55% C D+ A+ C- A- D B- B- B C+ C- F C- D 35% 30% 35% C+ D A A+ A+ F A F B+
0.94 67% 13% 29% -6 0 0.89 43% 0.9 .38 21% .31 75% .23 1.23 63% 63% 37% +11 -1 1.20 25% 0.5 .13 8% .23 86% .20
Feb
28		 Nebraska C+ A- A+ F B 34% 23% 43% B+ B D- B+ D+ C A+ A+ A+ C- A D A- A+ 58% 10% 33% F A F C+ F A- C F D-
0.97 69% 55% 20% -1 -1 0.98 18% 1.0 .18 20% .33 94% .31 1.19 53% 40% 29% -5 +3 0.98 47% 1.1 .50 17% .26 93% .25
Mar
4		 Washington C- A D F D+ 24% 43% 33% F D B B B+ C A+ A+ A+ C F C A+ B- 28% 28% 43% B- B- F B- D C- A- A A
0.95 69% 30% 22% -6 -4 0.81 31% 1.1 .33 16% .39 80% .31 1.20 88% 41% 23% +2 -2 1.03 43% 1.1 .45 14% .23 67% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 10.4 37.5 47.9 11th
12th 30.7 30.7 12th
13th 21.4 21.4 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 62.5 37.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 37.5% 7.3% 0.0% 7.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 34.8 7.3%
7-13 62.5% 0.5% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 62.2 0.5%
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.1% 0.0% 3.0% 11.2 97.0 3.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 54.2% 11.0 1.7 49.2 3.4
Lose Out 34.5% 0.1% 11.3 0.1 0.0