Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.6#25
Expected Predictive Rating+18.5#15
Pace63.3#329
Improvement-1.8#300

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#30
First Shot+5.9#34
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#53
Layup/Dunks+5.7#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
Freethrows+1.9#79
Improvement-2.2#336

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#29
First Shot+5.1#41
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#95
Layups/Dunks+3.3#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#122
Freethrows-0.9#245
Improvement+0.4#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.0% 2.2% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 8.4% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 19.3% 32.8% 17.0%
Top 6 Seed 43.6% 62.4% 40.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.4% 94.3% 82.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.0% 94.1% 82.2%
Average Seed 6.5 5.6 6.7
.500 or above 98.6% 99.9% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 83.5% 75.1%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four5.6% 2.9% 6.0%
First Round81.8% 92.9% 79.9%
Second Round55.3% 68.2% 53.1%
Sweet Sixteen23.3% 33.5% 21.6%
Elite Eight8.8% 13.9% 7.9%
Final Four3.4% 5.8% 3.0%
Championship Game1.2% 2.2% 1.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 14.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 9
Quad 27 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 016 - 10
Quad 47 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 186 Robert Morris W 101-69 95%     1 - 0 +27.3 +28.0 -0.1
  Fri, Nov 7 361 Western Illinois W 77-58 99%     2 - 0 +1.5 +3.7 -0.1
  Fri, Nov 14 77 Xavier W 81-62 83%     3 - 0 +23.5 +10.4 +13.0
  Tue, Nov 18 216 Southeast Missouri St. W 99-70 96%     4 - 0 +22.4 +26.4 -3.2
  Thu, Nov 20 352 Chicago St. W 93-54 99%     5 - 0 +23.2 +25.1 +3.8
  Tue, Nov 25 57 Mississippi W 74-69 67%     6 - 0 +15.0 +12.8 +2.7
  Wed, Nov 26 99 Grand Canyon W 59-46 81%     7 - 0 +18.2 +0.2 +20.1
  Tue, Dec 2 12 @Michigan St. L 52-71 25%     7 - 1 0 - 1 +2.5 +2.1 -3.3
  Sat, Dec 6 93 Maryland W 83-64 87%     8 - 1 1 - 1 +21.6 +12.0 +9.5
  Thu, Dec 11 2 @Iowa St. L 67-78 15%    
  Sun, Dec 14 245 Western Michigan W 83-61 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 316 Bucknell W 82-59 98%    
  Mon, Dec 29 317 Umass Lowell W 86-60 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 27 UCLA W 71-67 64%    
  Tue, Jan 6 102 @Minnesota W 70-63 73%    
  Sun, Jan 11 15 Illinois L 73-74 48%    
  Wed, Jan 14 7 @Purdue L 67-76 22%    
  Sat, Jan 17 28 @Indiana L 70-72 42%    
  Tue, Jan 20 123 Rutgers W 77-62 92%    
  Wed, Jan 28 35 USC W 78-73 67%    
  Sun, Feb 1 81 @Oregon W 74-69 66%    
  Wed, Feb 4 49 @Washington W 72-71 54%    
  Sun, Feb 8 61 Northwestern W 76-67 78%    
  Wed, Feb 11 93 @Maryland W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 7 Purdue L 70-73 41%    
  Tue, Feb 17 48 Nebraska W 76-69 73%    
  Sun, Feb 22 30 @Wisconsin L 73-75 43%    
  Wed, Feb 25 24 Ohio St. W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Feb 28 96 @Penn St. W 76-70 71%    
  Thu, Mar 5 1 Michigan L 69-78 22%    
  Sun, Mar 8 48 @Nebraska W 73-72 53%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.9 0.8 0.1 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.0 0.9 0.1 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.6 4.2 1.2 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.0 2.0 0.2 11.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 5.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.0 3.6 0.4 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.4 1.0 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.0 6.6 9.6 12.5 14.4 14.8 12.7 10.3 6.3 3.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 81.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
17-3 39.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 14.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.5% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 2.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.4% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 2.9 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.3% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 3.7 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.3% 99.9% 5.2% 94.7% 4.5 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.2 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 12.7% 99.8% 2.7% 97.1% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.2 3.7 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 14.8% 99.3% 1.7% 97.5% 6.4 0.2 0.8 2.6 4.2 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-9 14.4% 97.2% 0.9% 96.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 3.6 3.4 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.4 97.1%
10-10 12.5% 90.0% 0.6% 89.4% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.7 3.0 2.3 0.8 0.0 1.3 89.9%
9-11 9.6% 71.7% 0.4% 71.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.1 0.1 2.7 71.6%
8-12 6.6% 37.8% 0.2% 37.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.1 4.1 37.7%
7-13 4.0% 10.8% 10.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.5 10.8%
6-14 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.9%
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 84.4% 2.5% 81.9% 6.5 1.0 2.6 6.1 9.6 11.6 12.7 11.7 9.6 7.9 6.6 4.8 0.2 15.6 84.0%