Iowa
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#50
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#52
Pace77.7#18
Improvement-1.4#244

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#8
First Shot+10.8#3
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#217
Layup/Dunks+7.5#7
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#61
Freethrows-2.2#309
Improvement+3.8#22

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#163
First Shot-0.3#191
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#130
Layups/Dunks-3.8#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#118
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#246
Freethrows+3.9#5
Improvement-5.2#359
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 2.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.3% 36.4% 25.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.8% 35.8% 25.5%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 9.8
.500 or above 88.0% 88.1% 72.5%
.500 or above in Conference 37.0% 37.0% 29.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
First Four8.8% 8.8% 7.8%
First Round31.9% 31.9% 19.6%
Second Round14.9% 14.9% 5.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 3.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 26 - 29 - 14
Quad 32 - 011 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 93-66 99%    
  Nov 07, 2024 219   Southern W 89-74 93%     1 - 0 +9.0 +13.3 -4.9
  Nov 12, 2024 268   South Dakota W 96-77 95%     2 - 0 +10.2 +9.2 +0.2
  Nov 15, 2024 85   Washington St. W 76-66 65%     3 - 0 +16.7 +0.1 +15.8
  Nov 19, 2024 294   Rider W 83-58 96%     4 - 0 +14.6 +2.7 +11.1
  Nov 22, 2024 54   Utah St. L 69-77 51%     4 - 1 +2.2 -6.8 +9.8
  Nov 26, 2024 338   South Carolina Upstate W 110-77 98%     5 - 1 +18.8 +16.7 -2.0
  Dec 03, 2024 55   Northwestern W 80-79 63%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +8.3 +12.7 -4.4
  Dec 07, 2024 11   @ Michigan L 83-85 19%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +18.0 +13.7 +4.4
  Dec 12, 2024 4   Iowa St. L 80-89 25%     6 - 3 +8.7 +15.1 -6.2
  Dec 15, 2024 343   New Orleans W 104-57 98%     7 - 3 +32.5 +25.0 +8.3
  Dec 21, 2024 69   Utah W 95-88 60%     8 - 3 +15.1 +16.4 -2.0
  Dec 30, 2024 351   New Hampshire W 112-70 98%     9 - 3 +26.4 +18.1 +2.2
  Jan 03, 2025 18   @ Wisconsin L 85-116 22%     9 - 4 1 - 2 -12.4 +12.9 -23.0
  Jan 07, 2025 52   Nebraska W 97-87 OT 61%     10 - 4 2 - 2 +17.8 +15.8 +0.7
  Jan 11, 2025 56   Indiana W 85-60 63%     11 - 4 3 - 2 +32.2 +14.4 +17.2
  Jan 14, 2025 61   @ USC L 89-99 45%     11 - 5 3 - 3 +1.8 +18.1 -15.9
  Jan 17, 2025 31   @ UCLA L 70-94 31%     11 - 6 3 - 4 -8.3 +9.7 -18.8
  Jan 21, 2025 98   Minnesota W 80-72 79%    
  Jan 24, 2025 51   Penn St. W 90-87 62%    
  Jan 27, 2025 36   @ Ohio St. L 79-84 31%    
  Feb 04, 2025 10   Purdue L 79-83 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 18   Wisconsin L 83-85 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 66   @ Rutgers L 84-85 48%    
  Feb 16, 2025 25   @ Maryland L 81-88 26%    
  Feb 19, 2025 28   Oregon L 83-84 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 95   Washington W 86-79 76%    
  Feb 25, 2025 9   @ Illinois L 83-94 15%    
  Feb 28, 2025 55   @ Northwestern L 76-78 41%    
  Mar 06, 2025 12   Michigan St. L 81-85 38%    
  Mar 09, 2025 52   @ Nebraska L 81-84 39%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.7 3.5 5th
6th 0.5 3.0 2.0 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 4.4 0.7 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 6.1 2.6 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 0.2 4.3 5.1 0.6 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 1.5 7.1 1.9 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.2 4.3 5.1 0.3 10.0 11th
12th 1.5 6.8 1.5 0.0 9.8 12th
13th 0.2 4.3 3.9 0.3 8.7 13th
14th 0.0 1.5 4.7 1.2 0.0 7.5 14th
15th 0.4 2.8 2.6 0.1 5.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 4.5 16th
17th 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.3 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 18th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.2 7.7 13.8 18.0 19.3 16.3 11.4 6.0 2.3 0.7 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 29.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.7% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.3% 97.8% 3.9% 93.9% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.7%
12-8 6.0% 93.8% 2.2% 91.7% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 93.7%
11-9 11.4% 84.4% 1.7% 82.7% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.4 3.0 2.4 0.7 1.8 84.2%
10-10 16.3% 63.9% 1.3% 62.6% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.6 2.6 0.1 5.9 63.4%
9-11 19.3% 30.1% 0.4% 29.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 0.3 13.5 29.8%
8-12 18.0% 9.0% 0.2% 8.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.3 16.4 8.8%
7-13 13.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 13.8 0.3%
6-14 7.7% 7.7
5-15 3.2% 3.2
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 36.3% 0.8% 35.5% 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.2 5.9 7.8 8.2 7.7 0.6 63.7 35.8%