Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
9 Illinois 99.8%   3   13 - 5 5 - 3 22 - 9 14 - 6 +18.7      +9.4 17 +9.3 9 78.6 12 +15.2 25 +15.3 5
10 Purdue 100.0%   3   15 - 4 7 - 1 23 - 8 15 - 5 +17.6      +10.3 9 +7.3 22 64.8 277 +18.6 12 +21.3 3
11 Michigan 99.3%   4   14 - 4 6 - 1 22 - 9 14 - 6 +17.3      +10.3 10 +6.9 24 72.9 72 +14.7 27 +21.4 2
12 Michigan St. 99.8%   3   16 - 2 7 - 0 24 - 7 15 - 5 +17.1      +8.5 21 +8.7 13 69.9 143 +20.3 6 +26.9 1
18 Wisconsin 98.9%   5   15 - 3 5 - 2 23 - 8 13 - 7 +15.8      +10.0 12 +5.8 42 68.7 177 +18.3 14 +17.0 4
25 Maryland 88.3%   7   14 - 5 4 - 4 21 - 10 11 - 9 +14.7      +7.2 30 +7.5 21 72.2 85 +11.8 44 +10.9 8
28 Oregon 98.2%   6   15 - 3 4 - 3 23 - 8 12 - 8 +13.4      +6.9 35 +6.5 33 69.9 146 +19.3 8 +14.9 6
31 UCLA 77.3%   8   12 - 6 3 - 4 19 - 12 10 - 10 +13.0      +4.3 68 +8.7 12 64.7 278 +12.2 42 +10.4 13
36 Ohio St. 46.4%   11   10 - 8 2 - 5 17 - 14 9 - 11 +12.6      +6.3 43 +6.2 38 68.3 191 +9.4 60 +5.9 16
50 Iowa 36.3%   11 - 6 3 - 4 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10.6      +10.4 8 +0.2 163 77.7 18 +10.8 52 +10.7 11
51 Penn St. 30.4%   12 - 6 2 - 5 18 - 13 8 - 12 +10.5      +6.6 38 +4.0 75 76.4 24 +8.8 65 +7.2 15
52 Nebraska 41.1%   12 - 6 2 - 5 18 - 13 8 - 12 +10.5      +4.7 58 +5.8 43 70.6 122 +11.5 46 +7.4 14
55 Northwestern 28.7%   11 - 7 2 - 5 17 - 14 8 - 12 +10.1      +3.4 90 +6.6 28 63.4 315 +9.8 55 +10.5 12
56 Indiana 44.8%   11   14 - 5 5 - 3 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10.0      +4.3 69 +5.7 48 71.1 109 +13.3 35 +14.1 7
61 USC 15.1%   11 - 7 3 - 4 16 - 15 8 - 12 +9.1      +4.9 55 +4.2 66 69.7 151 +7.9 71 +10.8 10
66 Rutgers 8.4%   10 - 8 3 - 4 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8.4      +4.6 62 +3.8 78 71.3 106 +7.8 73 +10.9 9
95 Washington 1.7%   9 - 8 1 - 6 13 - 17 5 - 15 +6.0      +1.9 130 +4.1 70 71.6 96 +7.1 79 +4.3 18
98 Minnesota 0.2%   9 - 9 1 - 6 13 - 18 5 - 15 +5.0      +2.3 117 +2.7 98 59.8 356 +3.8 111 +4.8 17





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Illinois 3.6 13.3 20.1 20.9 17.9 12.4 6.8 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Purdue 2.5 36.0 26.1 15.9 10.8 5.8 2.7 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Michigan 3.0 26.7 21.1 18.1 13.7 9.1 5.1 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 2.3 44.3 23.1 13.5 8.2 5.3 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 4.5 8.7 13.6 17.1 16.8 15.0 10.8 7.1 4.3 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Maryland 7.3 0.6 2.3 5.2 8.5 12.6 14.5 14.9 11.6 9.3 6.6 4.7 3.5 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Oregon 6.2 1.8 5.0 8.3 12.6 15.6 16.4 12.7 9.2 6.1 4.4 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1
UCLA 8.5 0.4 1.3 3.2 5.2 8.2 11.3 12.5 12.6 10.6 9.0 7.6 5.8 4.8 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2
Ohio St. 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.1 7.1 9.0 9.7 10.2 10.0 10.2 8.9 8.0 7.2 5.5 3.1 1.1
Iowa 10.5 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.2 3.5 5.6 7.7 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.0 9.8 8.7 7.5 5.8 4.5 2.3 0.8
Penn St. 11.3 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.3 4.4 6.4 8.0 8.9 10.1 10.2 10.0 9.7 9.1 8.1 6.3 3.6 1.6
Nebraska 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.0 4.6 6.0 7.9 8.8 9.4 10.0 10.5 10.3 9.8 9.3 5.3 2.3
Northwestern 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.6 5.3 6.8 7.9 9.0 9.8 10.2 10.5 9.8 8.8 8.0 4.9 1.9
Indiana 9.5 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.0 7.8 10.1 11.6 11.4 11.2 10.2 9.2 7.1 5.2 3.3 1.9 0.5 0.1
USC 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.9 5.4 7.5 8.9 9.9 10.2 10.3 10.6 9.3 8.4 6.9 4.1 1.2
Rutgers 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 3.1 3.7 5.4 6.9 8.7 9.8 11.4 12.6 12.5 12.2 8.0 2.7
Washington 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.9 5.3 7.3 9.8 15.5 26.5 24.3
Minnesota 16.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 3.1 4.7 7.6 13.4 26.0 40.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois 14 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 7.4 13.0 20.5 23.3 19.3 9.5 2.9
Purdue 15 - 5 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.3 6.0 12.3 18.6 21.7 20.2 12.1 4.9 1.0
Michigan 14 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 5.2 9.7 16.2 20.1 18.6 14.8 8.2 3.2 0.6
Michigan St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.6 10.5 16.2 20.0 19.3 14.0 8.1 2.6 0.5
Wisconsin 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.4 12.4 17.2 20.4 18.3 12.7 6.3 2.1 0.3
Maryland 11 - 9 0.1 0.8 2.8 6.8 12.5 18.2 21.4 18.6 11.7 5.4 1.5 0.2
Oregon 12 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.7 8.5 13.7 19.2 21.3 16.7 9.9 4.1 1.2 0.2
UCLA 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 5.9 11.6 17.0 19.5 18.5 13.2 7.1 2.9 0.8 0.1
Ohio St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.2 8.8 14.5 18.6 19.2 15.8 10.1 4.6 1.9 0.3 0.0
Iowa 9 - 11 0.1 1.0 3.2 7.7 13.8 18.0 19.3 16.3 11.4 6.0 2.3 0.7 0.2
Penn St. 8 - 12 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.8 10.5 15.9 19.5 18.6 14.5 8.6 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
Nebraska 8 - 12 0.1 0.8 3.0 7.7 13.1 17.6 19.4 16.8 11.9 6.1 2.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Northwestern 8 - 12 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.7 11.8 17.5 19.7 17.0 12.3 7.7 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Indiana 9 - 11 0.7 3.8 10.2 17.1 20.3 19.5 14.6 8.5 4.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
USC 8 - 12 0.3 1.4 5.6 11.1 16.8 20.0 18.8 14.0 7.2 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 7 - 13 0.7 4.2 11.0 17.4 20.8 19.3 13.4 7.6 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.1
Washington 5 - 15 1.1 5.3 12.4 18.1 20.4 17.8 12.4 7.5 3.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 5 - 15 2.4 9.6 18.1 21.8 20.6 14.6 7.6 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Illinois 13.3% 5.2 5.0 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Purdue 36.0% 21.8 10.0 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
Michigan 26.7% 15.2 7.9 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 44.3% 28.8 11.2 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 8.7% 3.4 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Maryland 0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Oregon 1.8% 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Penn St.
Nebraska
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
USC 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0
Washington
Minnesota


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Illinois 99.8% 21.4% 78.5% 3   11.3 21.6 24.6 20.1 11.6 6.4 2.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.8%
Purdue 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3   12.1 22.6 25.2 18.8 11.9 5.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan 99.3% 16.3% 83.0% 4   7.8 15.0 21.0 20.6 15.8 10.2 5.2 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.7 99.2%
Michigan St. 99.8% 16.5% 83.3% 3   9.4 19.7 23.2 19.9 13.0 7.7 4.3 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 99.7%
Wisconsin 98.9% 9.5% 89.4% 5   2.4 7.1 14.1 17.8 18.7 16.1 10.7 6.4 3.3 1.6 0.8 1.1 98.7%
Maryland 88.3% 5.4% 82.9% 7   0.3 1.2 3.5 7.1 12.8 16.8 16.6 12.8 8.4 5.6 3.2 0.1 11.7 87.7%
Oregon 98.2% 4.5% 93.8% 6   0.3 1.6 5.6 10.4 18.4 21.1 19.3 11.1 6.3 3.0 1.1 0.0 1.8 98.1%
UCLA 77.3% 2.7% 74.6% 8   0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 5.5 10.5 14.6 15.4 11.2 8.6 7.1 0.6 22.7 76.6%
Ohio St. 46.4% 1.8% 44.7% 11   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.8 5.0 6.5 7.3 7.0 7.2 8.6 0.8 53.6 45.5%
Iowa 36.3% 0.8% 35.5% 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.2 5.9 7.8 8.2 7.7 0.6 63.7 35.8%
Penn St. 30.4% 0.7% 29.7% 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.6 4.8 6.1 7.5 7.0 0.5 69.6 29.9%
Nebraska 41.1% 0.7% 40.4% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 5.1 7.6 8.2 8.0 7.7 0.8 58.9 40.7%
Northwestern 28.7% 0.6% 28.1% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 5.2 5.8 6.4 6.8 0.8 71.3 28.2%
Indiana 44.8% 0.6% 44.2% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 4.5 8.5 10.0 10.3 8.4 0.6 55.2 44.5%
USC 15.1% 0.4% 14.7% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.0 4.1 4.8 0.4 84.9 14.8%
Rutgers 8.4% 0.2% 8.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 2.0 3.1 0.3 91.7 8.2%
Washington 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.1 98.3 1.7%
Minnesota 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Illinois 99.8% 0.2% 99.8% 91.1% 61.0% 32.7% 16.1% 7.6% 3.5%
Purdue 100.0% 0.1% 99.9% 90.7% 57.8% 28.1% 13.1% 6.0% 2.5%
Michigan 99.3% 0.3% 99.2% 86.3% 51.6% 25.2% 11.7% 4.8% 2.0%
Michigan St. 99.8% 0.1% 99.8% 88.5% 54.3% 25.5% 11.4% 5.2% 2.1%
Wisconsin 98.9% 0.7% 98.5% 77.3% 39.8% 16.6% 7.1% 2.7% 1.0%
Maryland 88.3% 3.4% 86.8% 57.7% 23.4% 9.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Oregon 98.2% 1.1% 97.7% 62.8% 23.7% 8.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2%
UCLA 77.3% 7.9% 73.3% 41.8% 13.2% 4.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Ohio St. 46.4% 9.7% 41.9% 23.5% 7.5% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Iowa 36.3% 8.8% 31.9% 14.9% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Penn St. 30.4% 7.7% 26.6% 12.0% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 41.1% 8.6% 36.6% 16.9% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 28.7% 7.8% 24.7% 10.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 44.8% 9.4% 39.9% 16.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
USC 15.1% 5.3% 12.4% 5.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 8.4% 3.5% 6.4% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 1.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 10.1 0.4 4.9 21.3 37.4 26.2 8.7 1.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.8 0.0 1.0 9.7 29.0 37.3 18.7 4.1 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 7.0 0.3 2.2 9.1 23.0 30.2 24.5 9.0 1.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.6% 3.5 0.4 3.9 15.0 31.4 30.0 14.7 4.0 0.6 0.1
Elite Eight 87.9% 1.6 12.1 36.8 34.5 14.0 2.4 0.2 0.0
Final Four 55.3% 0.7 44.7 42.5 11.8 0.9 0.0
Final Game 27.5% 0.3 72.5 25.9 1.7
Champion 11.9% 0.1 88.1 11.9