Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
19 Purdue 83.0%   4   4 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 8 +14.0      +9.6 10 +4.5 59 67.2 247 +16.7 13 0.0 1
20 Ohio St. 79.3%   5   3 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +14.0      +6.6 35 +7.4 14 65.6 286 +15.1 23 0.0 1
22 Indiana 77.8%   5   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 8 +13.8      +7.3 28 +6.5 25 71.6 106 +12.5 34 0.0 1
24 Michigan 76.0%   6   3 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 8 +13.6      +7.4 27 +6.2 31 70.7 134 +8.0 73 0.0 1
26 Illinois 73.6%   7   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +13.5      +7.9 19 +5.6 41 73.9 70 +6.2 90 0.0 1
28 UCLA 65.4%   8   3 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 12 - 8 +13.1      +4.0 68 +9.1 6 63.8 324 +3.5 127 0.0 1
30 Maryland 64.5%   9   4 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 9 +12.9      +4.8 58 +8.1 9 69.9 162 +3.7 124 0.0 1
32 Penn St. 67.8%   8   4 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 9 +12.7      +6.0 41 +6.7 21 80.6 7 +11.4 41 0.0 1
35 Michigan St. 62.8%   9   4 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 9 +11.8      +4.6 60 +7.3 15 70.4 147 +10.5 48 0.0 1
38 Wisconsin 67.3%   8   5 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 10 +11.5      +8.2 17 +3.3 82 67.3 245 +17.5 11 0.0 1
40 Oregon 59.0%   10   4 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +11.4      +5.3 49 +6.0 34 68.3 210 +9.4 57 0.0 1
41 Iowa 60.0%   10   4 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 10 +11.3      +7.7 22 +3.6 77 77.7 25 +13.6 29 0.0 1
42 Rutgers 52.4%   9   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +11.1      +4.4 62 +6.6 22 69.1 185 +6.7 86 0.0 1
65 Nebraska 26.5%   3 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 12 +8.4      +3.4 86 +5.0 50 71.1 118 +4.7 114 0.0 1
74 Northwestern 22.3%   4 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 13 +7.7      +3.5 83 +4.2 68 61.7 349 +7.3 81 0.0 1
78 USC 18.3%   3 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 13 +7.3      +5.2 50 +2.1 110 69.7 165 +3.1 140 0.0 1
84 Washington 17.1%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 13 +6.8      +1.7 125 +5.1 48 76.1 42 +7.7 78 0.0 1
90 Minnesota 10.2%   4 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 14 +5.7      +1.2 141 +4.5 58 60.5 354 +5.2 106 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Purdue 6.3 13.6 10.9 9.5 8.6 7.7 7.3 6.7 6.1 5.4 4.9 4.5 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.5
Ohio St. 6.2 14.1 10.8 9.9 8.5 7.9 7.2 6.5 5.7 5.4 4.8 4.3 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.5
Indiana 6.7 13.4 9.9 8.9 8.1 7.0 6.8 6.3 5.9 5.3 5.3 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.5 0.9
Michigan 6.7 12.2 10.2 9.3 8.4 7.7 7.0 6.5 6.1 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.4 0.8
Illinois 6.5 13.7 10.6 9.4 8.0 7.4 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.5 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.5 0.9
UCLA 6.7 11.7 9.9 9.3 8.3 7.8 7.2 6.6 6.0 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.1 1.5 0.9
Maryland 7.1 9.5 9.0 8.6 8.2 7.7 7.5 6.9 6.6 6.2 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.0 3.4 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.9
Penn St. 7.3 9.6 8.7 8.0 7.7 7.3 7.3 7.0 6.4 6.1 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.3 3.7 3.0 2.5 1.8 1.1
Michigan St. 8.0 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.0 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.1 2.4 1.5
Wisconsin 8.4 5.8 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.9 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.5 2.9 1.9
Oregon 8.4 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.0 4.4 3.8 3.0 2.1
Iowa 8.5 5.8 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.4 5.9 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.3 3.8 2.8 1.9
Rutgers 9.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 5.9 5.3 4.4 3.1
Nebraska 11.8 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.6 8.2 8.7 9.3 8.8 8.1
Northwestern 12.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.9 5.5 6.1 7.2 7.9 8.3 9.9 10.3 10.6 9.6
USC 12.5 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.3 10.7 10.5
Washington 12.9 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.7 4.3 5.0 5.4 6.4 7.1 8.2 9.6 10.8 12.1 13.5
Minnesota 14.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.3 3.7 4.6 5.9 6.9 8.2 10.3 12.6 15.5 18.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.0 5.8 8.1 10.1 11.7 12.2 11.7 10.7 8.4 5.9 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.2
Ohio St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.7 8.1 9.8 11.0 12.1 12.2 10.8 8.6 6.1 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.1
Indiana 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.0 11.1 11.4 10.9 9.7 7.9 5.6 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.2
Michigan 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.6 8.5 10.3 11.4 11.8 11.5 10.1 7.9 5.6 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.1
Illinois 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.4 8.5 9.7 10.9 11.4 11.2 10.1 8.4 6.0 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2
UCLA 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.5 8.8 10.2 11.3 12.1 11.5 10.1 7.7 5.5 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.1
Maryland 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.2 5.2 7.3 9.3 11.2 12.2 12.2 11.2 9.2 7.1 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
Penn St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.5 7.5 9.8 11.3 11.8 11.5 10.6 8.7 6.8 4.4 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
Michigan St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.7 6.7 8.9 10.4 11.8 12.0 11.0 9.8 7.5 5.4 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1
Wisconsin 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.5 5.2 7.4 9.6 10.9 11.9 11.7 10.7 9.3 6.9 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Oregon 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.3 7.5 9.2 10.7 11.6 11.5 10.3 9.2 7.0 4.7 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Iowa 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.6 5.2 7.6 9.4 11.1 12.0 11.5 10.4 9.2 6.9 4.8 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Rutgers 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.2 7.1 9.1 10.3 11.5 11.4 10.6 8.9 7.2 5.2 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Nebraska 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.3 6.9 9.1 11.0 11.9 11.8 10.7 9.5 7.6 5.7 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 2.8 5.2 8.0 10.4 11.9 12.5 12.1 10.5 8.6 6.5 4.6 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
USC 7 - 13 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.5 8.2 10.3 12.2 12.2 11.7 10.5 8.1 6.3 4.5 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 7 - 13 0.4 1.8 3.9 6.7 9.3 11.1 12.2 11.8 10.8 9.5 7.6 5.6 3.9 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 0.7 2.7 5.7 9.0 11.5 13.4 13.4 12.2 9.9 7.8 5.6 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 13.6% 8.0 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 14.1% 8.4 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Indiana 13.4% 8.2 3.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan 12.2% 7.2 3.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois 13.7% 8.3 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UCLA 11.7% 6.9 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Maryland 9.5% 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 9.6% 5.4 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 7.1% 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 5.8% 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon 6.3% 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 5.8% 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 4.7% 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 1.5% 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
USC 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 83.0% 10.3% 72.7% 4   5.8 9.3 12.0 11.5 11.2 9.5 6.6 4.8 3.9 3.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 17.0 81.1%
Ohio St. 79.3% 10.1% 69.2% 5   4.5 7.6 9.1 10.0 10.0 9.7 8.1 6.1 5.1 4.2 4.3 0.7 0.0 20.7 76.9%
Indiana 77.8% 9.9% 67.9% 5   4.9 7.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 8.8 8.3 6.9 5.7 4.5 4.1 0.5 0.0 22.2 75.4%
Michigan 76.0% 9.3% 66.8% 6   3.9 6.0 8.0 8.7 9.1 9.2 8.6 7.1 5.7 4.5 4.6 0.6 0.0 24.0 73.6%
Illinois 73.6% 9.5% 64.0% 7   3.8 5.6 7.6 7.7 8.6 8.6 8.9 8.1 5.8 4.5 4.0 0.5 26.4 70.8%
UCLA 65.4% 8.2% 57.3% 8   1.9 3.2 5.2 5.7 6.9 7.8 8.5 8.7 7.2 5.6 4.2 0.4 0.0 34.6 62.4%
Maryland 64.5% 7.3% 57.2% 9   1.4 2.5 4.0 5.0 6.4 7.3 9.0 9.5 8.0 6.8 4.4 0.3 0.0 35.5 61.7%
Penn St. 67.8% 7.6% 60.2% 8   1.9 3.5 5.0 6.1 7.2 7.5 8.3 8.2 7.6 6.8 5.3 0.4 32.2 65.1%
Michigan St. 62.8% 5.4% 57.4% 9   1.3 2.6 4.5 5.8 6.6 7.5 7.7 7.4 6.9 5.8 5.9 0.8 0.0 37.2 60.7%
Wisconsin 67.3% 4.7% 62.7% 8   1.3 2.9 4.9 6.3 7.7 9.0 8.3 7.6 6.9 5.7 5.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 32.7 65.7%
Oregon 59.0% 4.7% 54.3% 10   1.1 2.2 3.7 4.9 5.9 6.9 7.5 7.4 7.2 6.1 5.5 0.7 0.0 41.0 57.0%
Iowa 60.0% 4.6% 55.4% 10   1.0 1.9 3.6 4.4 6.0 6.9 7.8 8.1 7.7 6.8 5.4 0.6 0.0 40.0 58.1%
Rutgers 52.4% 4.0% 48.3% 9   1.1 2.0 3.5 4.2 5.5 6.2 6.9 6.9 6.0 5.0 4.7 0.6 47.6 50.4%
Nebraska 26.5% 1.5% 25.1% 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.1 0.5 0.0 73.5 25.4%
Northwestern 22.3% 0.9% 21.4% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.7 3.8 4.2 0.5 0.0 77.7 21.6%
USC 18.3% 0.9% 17.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 81.7 17.6%
Washington 17.1% 0.9% 16.2% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.3 0.4 82.9 16.4%
Minnesota 10.2% 0.3% 9.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.3 0.2 89.8 9.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 83.0% 4.7% 80.8% 60.2% 31.7% 14.1% 6.2% 2.5% 1.0%
Ohio St. 79.3% 4.3% 77.2% 56.1% 28.7% 13.1% 5.8% 2.5% 1.0%
Indiana 77.8% 4.0% 75.9% 54.4% 27.7% 12.9% 5.8% 2.5% 1.0%
Michigan 76.0% 4.7% 73.8% 52.3% 26.0% 11.5% 5.0% 2.2% 0.9%
Illinois 73.6% 3.9% 71.8% 50.4% 24.7% 11.3% 5.0% 2.1% 0.8%
UCLA 65.4% 4.0% 63.5% 42.6% 19.4% 8.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6%
Maryland 64.5% 3.9% 62.7% 40.5% 17.6% 7.8% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%
Penn St. 67.8% 4.8% 65.3% 42.6% 18.8% 8.3% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5%
Michigan St. 62.8% 5.9% 59.7% 37.3% 15.7% 6.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Wisconsin 67.3% 5.8% 64.3% 39.4% 16.3% 6.1% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
Oregon 59.0% 5.5% 56.3% 34.4% 14.1% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Iowa 60.0% 5.1% 57.3% 34.4% 14.0% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Rutgers 52.4% 4.7% 50.0% 30.9% 12.9% 5.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Nebraska 26.5% 4.1% 24.4% 12.8% 4.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Northwestern 22.3% 4.2% 20.0% 9.8% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
USC 18.3% 3.0% 16.8% 8.4% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 17.1% 3.3% 15.3% 7.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Minnesota 10.2% 2.2% 8.9% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.8 0.0 0.3 2.6 11.3 24.9 30.9 21.1 7.5 1.3 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.1 16.4 29.4 28.4 15.2 4.0 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.2 0.0 0.4 2.5 8.8 19.7 27.3 23.6 12.7 4.0 0.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 98.0% 2.8 2.0 11.9 27.6 30.7 19.4 6.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 76.4% 1.2 23.6 41.7 26.0 7.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
Final Four 42.7% 0.5 57.3 35.4 6.8 0.5 0.0
Final Game 19.7% 0.2 80.3 18.8 0.9
Champion 8.0% 0.1 92.0 8.0