Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 UCLA 95.7%   4   10 - 1 2 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 +15.3      +4.4 64 +10.9 4 65.0 279 +18.4 13 +28.8 1
15 Michigan St. 93.5%   4   9 - 2 2 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 7 +15.3      +7.2 33 +8.0 11 68.2 205 +15.3 28 +21.9 3
16 Illinois 87.9%   5   7 - 3 1 - 1 20 - 11 12 - 8 +15.2      +7.9 24 +7.4 15 74.8 49 +11.9 49 +10.7 13
19 Maryland 89.2%   6   9 - 2 1 - 1 22 - 9 12 - 8 +15.1      +7.0 34 +8.1 9 72.8 78 +12.5 43 +13.0 5
20 Purdue 89.8%   5   8 - 3 1 - 1 20 - 11 12 - 8 +14.3      +9.9 9 +4.4 68 65.2 276 +15.6 26 +13.9 4
21 Michigan 86.9%   6   8 - 3 2 - 0 20 - 11 13 - 7 +14.2      +7.6 28 +6.6 27 71.6 104 +12.2 45 +27.9 2
23 Oregon 95.1%   4   10 - 1 1 - 1 22 - 9 12 - 8 +14.0      +7.6 30 +6.4 30 69.2 171 +21.7 7 +11.4 12
30 Penn St. 66.4%   9   9 - 2 1 - 1 21 - 10 11 - 9 +12.6      +6.5 38 +6.2 31 76.5 28 +10.9 51 +11.5 11
36 Wisconsin 72.2%   9   9 - 3 0 - 2 20 - 11 10 - 10 +12.3      +8.7 12 +3.5 85 68.4 195 +14.4 34 -1.5 16
38 Ohio St. 51.9%   10   7 - 4 1 - 1 17 - 14 10 - 10 +11.7      +6.8 36 +5.0 53 68.3 198 +10.4 57 +11.9 9
42 Iowa 44.4%   11   7 - 3 1 - 1 18 - 13 10 - 10 +10.8      +8.2 19 +2.7 104 77.7 19 +9.4 66 +11.7 10
45 Indiana 43.6%   8 - 3 1 - 1 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10.6      +6.3 40 +4.4 70 73.3 70 +10.4 56 +6.7 15
53 Nebraska 44.5%   11   7 - 2 1 - 1 17 - 12 9 - 11 +10.0      +4.2 71 +5.8 36 71.2 117 +13.0 41 +12.9 7
61 Northwestern 30.5%   8 - 3 1 - 1 17 - 14 8 - 12 +9.1      +2.3 113 +6.8 21 62.6 334 +10.1 60 +13.0 6
64 Rutgers 22.2%   7 - 4 1 - 1 16 - 15 8 - 12 +8.8      +4.4 66 +4.3 72 72.5 85 +8.2 77 +12.2 8
76 USC 11.1%   8 - 4 1 - 1 15 - 16 7 - 13 +7.5      +3.6 86 +3.9 79 69.6 160 +5.3 99 +10.4 14
82 Washington 10.9%   7 - 3 0 - 2 15 - 15 6 - 14 +6.8      +2.2 116 +4.6 62 71.8 100 +9.2 67 -7.3 18
114 Minnesota 0.4%   6 - 5 0 - 2 12 - 19 4 - 16 +3.4      +0.2 165 +3.1 95 59.8 356 +1.4 147 -2.3 17





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
UCLA 4.0 26.9 16.9 12.4 9.4 7.7 6.2 5.2 4.1 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 4.4 23.0 15.1 12.1 10.0 8.5 6.9 6.0 4.7 3.7 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois 5.6 14.2 12.6 11.2 9.9 8.7 7.8 7.0 6.2 5.2 4.5 3.6 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1
Maryland 5.3 14.2 13.4 12.0 10.4 9.3 7.9 7.0 5.8 4.9 4.2 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
Purdue 6.0 11.2 11.1 10.8 9.8 9.3 8.3 7.4 6.7 5.8 4.9 4.0 3.5 2.5 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1
Michigan 5.1 17.4 13.4 11.6 9.9 8.7 7.5 6.7 5.5 4.9 4.0 3.3 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
Oregon 6.4 9.3 9.8 9.8 9.4 9.2 8.5 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.5 4.5 4.0 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.1
Penn St. 7.3 5.7 7.6 7.9 8.5 8.7 8.4 8.3 7.8 7.1 6.6 6.0 4.9 4.1 3.4 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3
Wisconsin 9.1 2.1 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.6 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.2 1.0
Ohio St. 8.7 3.4 4.4 5.7 6.1 6.8 6.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.0 7.6 6.7 6.0 5.4 4.3 3.2 1.9 0.7
Iowa 9.5 2.2 3.3 4.2 5.1 5.9 6.3 6.7 7.2 7.7 8.1 7.7 7.5 7.2 6.5 5.8 4.6 3.0 1.0
Indiana 10.5 1.3 2.4 3.0 3.7 4.4 5.2 5.7 6.3 6.8 7.6 7.5 8.6 8.8 8.6 7.5 6.5 4.4 1.5
Nebraska 10.5 1.4 2.3 3.1 3.7 4.4 5.0 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.6 8.1 8.3 8.3 7.9 7.5 6.5 4.6 1.8
Northwestern 11.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.6 5.6 6.5 7.4 7.8 9.1 9.3 9.6 8.8 8.4 6.0 2.7
Rutgers 12.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.0 4.0 4.7 5.6 6.9 7.4 8.7 9.5 10.2 10.5 10.3 8.0 3.4
USC 12.9 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.6 5.9 6.7 8.2 9.5 11.2 12.1 12.6 10.5 5.3
Washington 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.2 5.5 6.9 8.9 11.7 15.4 19.9 15.6
Minnesota 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.2 3.0 4.7 7.2 12.0 21.8 45.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UCLA 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.9 9.2 12.0 14.4 14.8 14.1 11.0 7.0 3.5 1.2 0.2
Michigan St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.4 4.4 7.1 10.3 13.3 14.6 14.8 12.4 9.7 5.7 2.7 0.9 0.2
Illinois 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.5 6.8 9.5 12.8 14.1 14.4 13.0 10.1 6.3 3.2 1.1 0.2
Maryland 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.2 9.5 12.2 14.5 15.3 13.6 10.5 6.7 3.2 1.2 0.2
Purdue 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.8 7.7 10.8 13.3 14.6 14.4 12.2 8.4 5.4 2.4 0.8 0.1
Michigan 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.5 6.0 9.0 11.7 13.9 14.6 13.3 10.7 7.5 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.1
Oregon 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.7 8.8 11.6 14.2 15.1 13.8 11.0 7.5 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1
Penn St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.7 7.6 11.0 13.3 14.7 14.5 12.2 8.7 5.4 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.0
Wisconsin 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.4 8.2 11.7 14.1 14.7 13.7 11.6 7.9 4.6 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Ohio St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.7 7.7 10.7 13.5 14.6 13.7 11.6 8.5 6.0 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Iowa 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.9 6.5 9.4 12.2 14.1 14.1 12.7 10.1 7.0 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Indiana 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 5.5 8.7 12.2 13.8 14.0 12.9 10.7 8.0 4.9 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 9 - 11 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.6 8.8 11.5 13.2 14.4 13.1 10.8 7.8 5.1 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.1 7.3 10.6 13.6 14.9 14.3 11.7 9.0 5.8 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 8 - 12 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.4 9.1 12.6 14.5 14.7 13.4 10.4 7.4 4.6 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
USC 7 - 13 0.2 1.3 3.7 7.4 11.3 14.8 15.5 14.4 12.0 8.7 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 6 - 14 0.5 2.2 5.2 9.4 13.0 15.0 15.3 13.0 10.2 7.3 4.3 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 4 - 16 2.7 8.4 14.4 17.8 17.7 14.5 10.5 6.8 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UCLA 26.9% 16.7 7.1 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 23.0% 14.1 6.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois 14.2% 7.7 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maryland 14.2% 7.4 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purdue 11.2% 5.8 3.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan 17.4% 10.3 4.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon 9.3% 4.6 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 5.7% 2.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 2.1% 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 3.4% 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iowa 2.2% 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana 1.3% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 1.4% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
USC 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UCLA 95.7% 13.8% 82.0% 4   6.5 12.7 16.4 15.2 13.4 10.8 8.0 5.6 3.3 2.2 1.6 0.1 4.3 95.0%
Michigan St. 93.5% 13.3% 80.2% 4   4.8 9.3 12.7 13.2 12.9 12.1 10.4 7.3 5.0 3.4 2.1 0.2 6.5 92.5%
Illinois 87.9% 11.8% 76.1% 5   3.7 7.2 10.6 12.0 12.0 11.4 10.5 7.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 0.4 12.1 86.3%
Maryland 89.2% 11.9% 77.3% 6   3.2 6.2 9.4 10.8 12.0 11.6 11.7 9.6 6.9 4.9 2.6 0.2 10.8 87.7%
Purdue 89.8% 9.1% 80.7% 5   2.9 6.7 10.8 12.5 13.4 12.6 10.5 7.1 5.1 4.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.2 88.8%
Michigan 86.9% 10.0% 76.9% 6   2.4 5.2 8.6 10.3 11.3 12.1 12.6 10.2 6.3 4.4 3.2 0.3 13.1 85.4%
Oregon 95.1% 8.5% 86.7% 4   3.7 8.5 14.2 14.4 15.0 13.4 8.5 6.0 4.8 3.7 2.7 0.2 4.9 94.7%
Penn St. 66.4% 5.3% 61.1% 9   0.4 1.0 2.5 4.0 5.6 7.0 9.1 10.5 10.3 9.4 6.3 0.4 33.6 64.6%
Wisconsin 72.2% 4.0% 68.2% 9   0.4 1.3 2.9 4.5 6.9 9.3 10.5 10.2 10.1 8.6 6.9 0.7 27.8 71.1%
Ohio St. 51.9% 3.5% 48.4% 10   0.2 0.7 1.8 2.8 4.2 6.0 7.5 7.9 7.1 6.6 6.4 0.7 0.0 48.1 50.2%
Iowa 44.4% 2.5% 41.9% 11   0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.7 7.8 8.1 7.8 6.0 0.5 55.6 43.0%
Indiana 43.6% 2.1% 41.4% 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.1 6.0 7.4 7.4 6.7 5.7 0.6 0.0 56.4 42.3%
Nebraska 44.5% 1.8% 42.7% 11   0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 3.0 4.2 5.9 7.6 7.4 6.6 6.0 0.7 55.5 43.5%
Northwestern 30.5% 1.0% 29.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.6 5.0 5.7 5.9 5.2 0.6 69.5 29.8%
Rutgers 22.2% 0.8% 21.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.4 0.5 0.0 77.8 21.6%
USC 11.1% 0.4% 10.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.8 2.6 0.3 88.9 10.8%
Washington 10.9% 0.3% 10.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.7 2.8 0.3 89.1 10.6%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.6 0.4%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UCLA 95.7% 1.7% 95.0% 75.4% 40.8% 18.8% 8.2% 3.4% 1.4%
Michigan St. 93.5% 2.1% 92.5% 70.5% 37.4% 17.6% 7.9% 3.4% 1.3%
Illinois 87.9% 3.7% 86.4% 65.1% 34.5% 16.1% 7.4% 3.2% 1.3%
Maryland 89.2% 2.7% 88.0% 64.5% 32.9% 15.4% 6.7% 2.8% 1.2%
Purdue 89.8% 4.1% 87.8% 64.0% 31.3% 13.3% 5.6% 2.4% 1.0%
Michigan 86.9% 3.3% 85.3% 60.1% 28.7% 12.6% 5.2% 2.1% 0.8%
Oregon 95.1% 2.9% 93.6% 68.6% 33.5% 14.0% 5.6% 2.0% 0.8%
Penn St. 66.4% 6.2% 63.5% 38.2% 14.8% 5.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Wisconsin 72.2% 7.3% 68.7% 40.3% 15.3% 5.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Ohio St. 51.9% 6.9% 48.6% 28.0% 10.4% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Iowa 44.4% 6.2% 41.3% 22.1% 7.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Indiana 43.6% 6.1% 40.5% 21.7% 7.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Nebraska 44.5% 6.5% 41.2% 21.5% 6.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Northwestern 30.5% 5.7% 27.5% 13.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Rutgers 22.2% 4.8% 19.7% 9.2% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 11.1% 2.8% 9.7% 4.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 10.9% 2.9% 9.2% 3.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 10.4 0.0 0.4 4.0 17.4 33.1 30.0 12.6 2.3 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 10.0 0.1 1.0 7.7 24.3 34.7 23.8 7.4 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.7 0.1 0.8 4.3 13.0 25.2 28.8 19.0 7.2 1.5 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.0% 3.1 1.0 8.2 23.4 31.7 23.5 9.5 2.4 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 80.7% 1.3 19.3 40.7 28.8 9.5 1.6 0.1 0.0
Final Four 46.6% 0.6 53.4 38.1 7.9 0.6 0.0
Final Game 21.3% 0.2 78.7 20.2 1.1
Champion 8.6% 0.1 91.4 8.6