Wisconsin
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#38
Expected Predictive Rating+17.5#11
Pace67.3#245
Improvement-0.1#190

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#17
First Shot+9.5#12
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#252
Layup/Dunks-1.2#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#28
Freethrows+6.7#6
Improvement+1.0#52

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#82
First Shot+1.5#130
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#73
Layups/Dunks+5.9#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#330
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#297
Freethrows+2.2#77
Improvement-1.2#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 5.6% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 15.4% 19.5% 8.6%
Top 6 Seed 32.2% 38.7% 21.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.3% 74.3% 55.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.7% 72.8% 54.1%
Average Seed 6.7 6.4 7.3
.500 or above 87.3% 92.9% 77.9%
.500 or above in Conference 60.0% 65.0% 51.6%
Conference Champion 5.8% 7.1% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 2.8% 5.4%
First Four5.8% 5.3% 6.5%
First Round64.3% 71.5% 52.2%
Second Round39.4% 45.3% 29.4%
Sweet Sixteen16.3% 19.4% 11.0%
Elite Eight6.1% 7.4% 4.0%
Final Four2.2% 2.8% 1.3%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Central Florida (Neutral) - 62.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 46 - 9
Quad 26 - 311 - 11
Quad 33 - 014 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 318   Holy Cross W 85-61 97%     1 - 0 +12.3 +7.0 +6.4
  Nov 07, 2024 155   Montana St. W 79-67 90%     2 - 0 +9.2 +9.5 +0.6
  Nov 10, 2024 200   Appalachian St. W 87-56 93%     3 - 0 +26.1 +15.0 +11.3
  Nov 15, 2024 13   Arizona W 103-88 46%     4 - 0 +27.5 +19.9 +5.3
  Nov 18, 2024 191   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-84 92%     5 - 0 -1.4 +10.4 -11.9
  Nov 22, 2024 71   Central Florida W 76-72 63%    
  Nov 30, 2024 349   Chicago St. W 88-61 99%    
  Dec 03, 2024 24   Michigan W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 07, 2024 15   @ Marquette L 71-77 28%    
  Dec 10, 2024 26   @ Illinois L 75-80 32%    
  Dec 14, 2024 85   Butler W 77-72 66%    
  Dec 22, 2024 338   Detroit Mercy W 86-60 99%    
  Jan 03, 2025 41   Iowa W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 06, 2025 42   @ Rutgers L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 10, 2025 90   Minnesota W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 14, 2025 20   Ohio St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 78   @ USC W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 21, 2025 28   @ UCLA L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 26, 2025 65   Nebraska W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 29, 2025 30   @ Maryland L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 74   @ Northwestern W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 04, 2025 22   Indiana W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 41   @ Iowa L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 19   @ Purdue L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 18, 2025 26   Illinois W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 40   Oregon W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 84   Washington W 79-71 75%    
  Mar 02, 2025 35   @ Michigan St. L 71-74 38%    
  Mar 05, 2025 90   @ Minnesota W 69-66 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 32   Penn St. W 80-78 56%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.2 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.3 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.0 0.9 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.5 0.2 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 3.5 0.7 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.2 1.8 0.1 5.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 5.6 13th
14th 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.9 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.5 5.2 7.4 9.6 10.9 11.9 11.7 10.7 9.3 6.9 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 96.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1
17-3 88.6% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
16-4 60.9% 1.7    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 31.8% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 2.8 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.7% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 3.6 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.9% 99.9% 11.8% 88.1% 4.5 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 9.3% 99.7% 8.2% 91.6% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.4 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 10.7% 98.8% 4.6% 94.2% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.8 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.7%
11-9 11.7% 95.5% 2.7% 92.8% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.5 95.4%
10-10 11.9% 86.4% 1.8% 84.5% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.1 1.6 86.1%
9-11 10.9% 58.7% 0.6% 58.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.2 0.3 4.5 58.5%
8-12 9.6% 28.7% 0.4% 28.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.8 28.4%
7-13 7.4% 6.3% 0.1% 6.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.0 6.2%
6-14 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.4%
5-15 3.5% 3.5
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 67.3% 4.7% 62.7% 6.7 1.3 2.9 4.9 6.3 7.7 9.0 8.3 7.6 6.9 5.7 5.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 32.7 65.7%