Wisconsin
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.1#12
Expected Predictive Rating+17.8#9
Pace68.3#173
Improvement+2.1#102

Offense
Total Offense+11.1#12
First Shot+10.8#5
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#166
Layup/Dunks+1.7#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#26
Freethrows+5.6#1
Improvement-1.1#245

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#31
First Shot+6.2#27
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#111
Layups/Dunks+4.2#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#36
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement+3.3#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.2% 2.4% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 18.6% 20.5% 5.7%
Top 4 Seed 82.7% 86.6% 55.7%
Top 6 Seed 98.7% 99.7% 91.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.5 3.4 4.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round92.9% 93.8% 86.7%
Sweet Sixteen58.9% 60.1% 51.1%
Elite Eight26.1% 26.9% 20.8%
Final Four11.3% 11.7% 8.0%
Championship Game4.5% 4.7% 3.0%
National Champion1.6% 1.6% 1.4%

Next Game: Penn St. (Home) - 87.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 7
Quad 210 - 117 - 8
Quad 32 - 019 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 317   Holy Cross W 85-61 99%     1 - 0 +11.8 +8.9 +4.0
  Nov 07, 2024 187   Montana St. W 79-67 97%     2 - 0 +7.8 +9.7 -1.0
  Nov 10, 2024 167   Appalachian St. W 87-56 97%     3 - 0 +27.8 +17.2 +10.9
  Nov 15, 2024 10   Arizona W 103-88 60%     4 - 0 +30.5 +21.8 +6.5
  Nov 18, 2024 270   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-84 99%     5 - 0 -5.7 +9.7 -15.4
  Nov 22, 2024 78   Central Florida W 86-70 84%     6 - 0 +23.3 +6.5 +15.2
  Nov 24, 2024 60   Pittsburgh W 81-75 80%     7 - 0 +15.3 +13.3 +2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 361   Chicago St. W 74-53 99.7%    8 - 0 +1.4 -2.7 +5.3
  Dec 03, 2024 28   Michigan L 64-67 73%     8 - 1 0 - 1 +8.7 +0.3 +8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 24   @ Marquette L 74-88 50%     8 - 2 +4.1 +15.5 -12.2
  Dec 10, 2024 19   @ Illinois L 80-86 46%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +13.2 +10.8 +2.7
  Dec 14, 2024 69   Butler W 83-74 83%     9 - 3 +17.0 +13.8 +3.5
  Dec 22, 2024 338   Detroit Mercy W 76-53 99%     10 - 3 +8.6 +1.6 +8.1
  Jan 03, 2025 65   Iowa W 116-85 87%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +36.7 +32.9 +1.4
  Jan 06, 2025 64   @ Rutgers W 75-63 75%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +23.1 +6.1 +17.1
  Jan 10, 2025 84   Minnesota W 80-59 90%     13 - 3 3 - 2 +25.1 +15.3 +11.3
  Jan 14, 2025 35   Ohio St. W 70-68 76%     14 - 3 4 - 2 +12.7 +3.5 +9.3
  Jan 18, 2025 59   @ USC W 84-69 71%     15 - 3 5 - 2 +27.4 +15.6 +11.9
  Jan 21, 2025 26   @ UCLA L 83-85 52%     15 - 4 5 - 3 +15.6 +24.7 -9.1
  Jan 26, 2025 54   Nebraska W 83-55 83%     16 - 4 6 - 3 +36.0 +14.3 +21.6
  Jan 29, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 68-76 40%     16 - 5 6 - 4 +12.7 +9.1 +3.4
  Feb 01, 2025 52   @ Northwestern W 75-69 67%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +19.6 +19.3 +1.1
  Feb 04, 2025 46   Indiana W 76-64 81%     18 - 5 8 - 4 +20.8 +12.5 +9.0
  Feb 08, 2025 65   @ Iowa W 74-63 75%     19 - 5 9 - 4 +22.1 +7.3 +15.5
  Feb 15, 2025 15   @ Purdue W 94-84 42%     20 - 5 10 - 4 +30.2 +34.8 -3.9
  Feb 18, 2025 19   Illinois W 95-74 67%     21 - 5 11 - 4 +34.8 +24.6 +9.5
  Feb 22, 2025 36   Oregon L 73-77 OT 76%     21 - 6 11 - 5 +6.7 -1.1 +8.1
  Feb 25, 2025 104   Washington W 88-62 93%     22 - 6 12 - 5 +27.3 +23.6 +6.0
  Mar 02, 2025 8   @ Michigan St. L 62-71 37%     22 - 7 12 - 6 +12.7 -1.0 +14.1
  Mar 05, 2025 84   @ Minnesota W 74-67 79%     23 - 7 13 - 6 +16.5 +13.4 +3.8
  Mar 08, 2025 61   Penn St. W 84-72 87%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 66.2 66.2 2nd
3rd 1.2 20.9 22.1 3rd
4th 7.2 7.2 4th
5th 4.5 4.5 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 12.9 87.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 87.1% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 3.4 2.1 15.8 32.3 25.3 9.3 2.1 0.3 100.0%
13-7 12.9% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.4 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.6 2.7 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.5 2.2 16.5 35.1 28.9 12.0 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.4% 100.0% 2.3 9.8 52.9 33.2 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.0% 100.0% 3.0 2.4 22.3 48.4 24.5 2.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 25.5% 100.0% 3.4 0.5 11.7 42.6 34.6 9.7 0.9 0.1
Lose Out 2.9% 100.0% 5.8 3.5 8.4 27.2 33.8 21.6 4.9 0.7