Wisconsin
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#15
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#17
Pace68.6#167
Improvement+0.1#189

Offense
Total Offense+10.8#12
First Shot+10.5#5
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#167
Layup/Dunks+1.6#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#26
Freethrows+5.6#2
Improvement-1.9#277

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#35
First Shot+5.9#30
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#115
Layups/Dunks+4.1#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#40
Freethrows+0.3#163
Improvement+2.0#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 5.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 45.1% 57.6% 9.6%
Top 6 Seed 87.3% 94.9% 65.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 4.8 4.3 6.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round83.1% 85.9% 74.9%
Sweet Sixteen46.0% 49.5% 35.9%
Elite Eight18.2% 19.0% 15.8%
Final Four7.4% 7.6% 6.7%
Championship Game2.7% 2.8% 2.5%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.8%

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 27 - 7
Quad 210 - 116 - 9
Quad 32 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 320   Holy Cross W 85-61 99%     1 - 0 +11.7 +8.8 +4.0
  Nov 07, 2024 188   Montana St. W 79-67 97%     2 - 0 +7.7 +10.0 -1.4
  Nov 10, 2024 178   Appalachian St. W 87-56 96%     3 - 0 +27.1 +16.8 +10.6
  Nov 15, 2024 12   Arizona W 103-88 58%     4 - 0 +30.2 +21.1 +7.0
  Nov 18, 2024 267   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-84 98%     5 - 0 -5.6 +9.6 -15.2
  Nov 22, 2024 70   Central Florida W 86-70 81%     6 - 0 +24.1 +6.8 +15.7
  Nov 24, 2024 62   Pittsburgh W 81-75 78%     7 - 0 +15.4 +13.6 +1.9
  Nov 30, 2024 362   Chicago St. W 74-53 99.7%    8 - 0 +1.4 -2.8 +5.3
  Dec 03, 2024 31   Michigan L 64-67 72%     8 - 1 0 - 1 +8.4 +0.1 +8.2
  Dec 07, 2024 25   @ Marquette L 74-88 47%     8 - 2 +4.1 +15.2 -12.0
  Dec 10, 2024 17   @ Illinois L 80-86 42%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +13.6 +10.9 +3.0
  Dec 14, 2024 72   Butler W 83-74 81%     9 - 3 +17.0 +13.5 +3.7
  Dec 22, 2024 337   Detroit Mercy W 76-53 99%     10 - 3 +8.7 +1.6 +8.1
  Jan 03, 2025 60   Iowa W 116-85 84%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +37.9 +33.4 +2.1
  Jan 06, 2025 65   @ Rutgers W 75-63 73%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +23.0 +6.5 +16.7
  Jan 10, 2025 84   Minnesota W 80-59 89%     13 - 3 3 - 2 +24.7 +15.6 +10.7
  Jan 14, 2025 39   Ohio St. W 70-68 76%     14 - 3 4 - 2 +12.1 +3.5 +8.7
  Jan 18, 2025 61   @ USC W 84-69 69%     15 - 3 5 - 2 +27.2 +15.4 +11.9
  Jan 21, 2025 24   @ UCLA L 83-85 46%     15 - 4 5 - 3 +16.4 +24.9 -8.7
  Jan 26, 2025 57   Nebraska W 83-55 83%     16 - 4 6 - 3 +35.3 +13.9 +21.2
  Jan 29, 2025 11   @ Maryland L 68-76 36%     16 - 5 6 - 4 +13.0 +9.3 +3.5
  Feb 01, 2025 49   @ Northwestern W 75-69 64%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +19.8 +19.6 +1.1
  Feb 04, 2025 43   Indiana W 76-64 79%     18 - 5 8 - 4 +21.1 +12.9 +8.9
  Feb 08, 2025 60   @ Iowa W 74-63 69%     19 - 5 9 - 4 +23.4 +7.9 +16.2
  Feb 15, 2025 16   @ Purdue W 94-84 40%     20 - 5 10 - 4 +30.0 +34.5 -3.8
  Feb 18, 2025 17   Illinois W 95-74 63%     21 - 5 11 - 4 +35.1 +24.7 +9.8
  Feb 22, 2025 35   Oregon L 73-77 OT 73%     21 - 6 11 - 5 +6.9 -1.0 +8.3
  Feb 25, 2025 105   Washington W 88-62 93%     22 - 6 12 - 5 +27.2 +23.5 +6.0
  Mar 02, 2025 8   @ Michigan St. L 62-71 32%     22 - 7 12 - 6 +13.3 -0.7 +14.4
  Mar 05, 2025 84   @ Minnesota W 74-67 78%     23 - 7 13 - 6 +16.2 +13.8 +3.1
  Mar 08, 2025 58   Penn St. L 75-86 83%     23 - 8 13 - 7 -3.9 +1.6 -4.9
  Mar 13, 2025 49   Northwestern W 75-69 73%    
Projected Record 24 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 4.8 0.3 3.9 16.0 24.9 23.2 18.9 10.7 2.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 4.8 0.3 3.9 16.0 24.9 23.2 18.9 10.7 2.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.0% 100.0% 2.9 2.4 29.0 50.2 17.3 1.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.5% 100.0% 3.7 0.2 5.5 33.2 45.5 13.8 1.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 22.4% 100.0% 4.1 1.9 23.7 42.2 25.4 6.1 0.7
Lose Out 26.0% 99.8% 6.0 0.0 1.2 8.4 21.6 34.2 27.5 6.8 0.1