Wisconsin
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#7
Expected Predictive Rating+19.3#7
Pace67.9#192
Improvement+4.7#25

Offense
Total Offense+12.5#6
First Shot+11.9#2
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#148
Layup/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#19
Freethrows+6.0#1
Improvement+2.1#83

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#39
First Shot+5.6#33
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#120
Layups/Dunks+4.0#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#42
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement+2.7#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 10.9% 12.7% 2.3%
Top 2 Seed 39.6% 44.1% 18.7%
Top 4 Seed 88.8% 91.6% 76.2%
Top 6 Seed 99.5% 99.7% 98.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.9 2.8 3.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 36.9% 41.6% 15.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round94.6% 95.3% 91.1%
Sweet Sixteen62.9% 64.5% 55.9%
Elite Eight32.9% 34.1% 27.8%
Final Four15.2% 15.9% 12.2%
Championship Game6.7% 7.0% 5.3%
National Champion3.0% 3.2% 1.8%

Next Game: Oregon (Home) - 82.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 6
Quad 29 - 017 - 7
Quad 34 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 317   Holy Cross W 85-61 99%     1 - 0 +12.3 +9.3 +4.1
  Nov 07, 2024 188   Montana St. W 79-67 97%     2 - 0 +7.9 +10.4 -1.7
  Nov 10, 2024 141   Appalachian St. W 87-56 96%     3 - 0 +29.6 +17.8 +12.1
  Nov 15, 2024 8   Arizona W 103-88 60%     4 - 0 +31.2 +23.9 +5.1
  Nov 18, 2024 262   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-84 98%     5 - 0 -5.0 +10.8 -15.8
  Nov 22, 2024 81   Central Florida W 86-70 86%     6 - 0 +23.0 +6.5 +14.9
  Nov 24, 2024 52   Pittsburgh W 81-75 78%     7 - 0 +16.6 +13.8 +3.0
  Nov 30, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 74-53 99.7%    8 - 0 +2.7 -1.0 +4.9
  Dec 03, 2024 22   Michigan L 64-67 71%     8 - 1 0 - 1 +10.1 -0.2 +10.2
  Dec 07, 2024 29   @ Marquette L 74-88 56%     8 - 2 +3.3 +14.7 -12.4
  Dec 10, 2024 18   @ Illinois L 80-86 50%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +12.7 +10.8 +2.2
  Dec 14, 2024 66   Butler W 83-74 84%     9 - 3 +17.3 +14.6 +2.9
  Dec 22, 2024 334   Detroit Mercy W 76-53 99%     10 - 3 +9.6 +2.3 +8.4
  Jan 03, 2025 61   Iowa W 116-85 87%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +37.7 +33.7 +1.6
  Jan 06, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 75-63 77%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +22.9 +7.3 +15.7
  Jan 10, 2025 76   Minnesota W 80-59 90%     13 - 3 3 - 2 +25.9 +15.5 +11.9
  Jan 14, 2025 33   Ohio St. W 70-68 77%     14 - 3 4 - 2 +13.1 +4.9 +8.3
  Jan 18, 2025 59   @ USC W 84-69 72%     15 - 3 5 - 2 +27.7 +16.8 +10.9
  Jan 21, 2025 27   @ UCLA L 83-85 56%     15 - 4 5 - 3 +15.3 +24.7 -9.5
  Jan 26, 2025 48   Nebraska W 83-55 83%     16 - 4 6 - 3 +36.5 +14.1 +22.2
  Jan 29, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 68-76 43%     16 - 5 6 - 4 +12.5 +7.2 +5.1
  Feb 01, 2025 58   @ Northwestern W 75-69 72%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +18.8 +18.9 +0.8
  Feb 04, 2025 57   Indiana W 76-64 84%     18 - 5 8 - 4 +20.0 +11.8 +8.9
  Feb 08, 2025 61   @ Iowa W 74-63 75%     19 - 5 9 - 4 +22.8 +8.0 +15.5
  Feb 15, 2025 16   @ Purdue W 94-84 45%     20 - 5 10 - 4 +30.0 +35.2 -4.4
  Feb 18, 2025 18   Illinois W 95-74 69%     21 - 5 11 - 4 +34.6 +24.8 +9.2
  Feb 22, 2025 39   Oregon W 81-72 82%    
  Feb 25, 2025 90   Washington W 84-68 93%    
  Mar 02, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 74-76 42%    
  Mar 05, 2025 76   @ Minnesota W 74-65 79%    
  Mar 08, 2025 62   Penn St. W 86-73 89%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 14.0 22.7 36.9 1st
2nd 0.0 6.8 26.3 1.3 34.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 13.4 4.5 19.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 4.1 6.9 4th
5th 0.4 1.9 0.2 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.7 5.9 24.6 44.8 24.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 94.8% 22.7    13.7 8.3 0.8
15-5 31.3% 14.0    0.8 4.4 6.3 2.3 0.2
14-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 36.9% 36.9 14.5 12.6 7.1 2.4 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 24.0% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 2.0 7.2 11.4 4.7 0.7 0.1 100.0%
15-5 44.8% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 2.8 3.3 14.2 16.5 8.6 2.0 0.3 100.0%
14-6 24.6% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 3.7 0.3 2.9 8.0 8.1 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 5.9% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 4.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.7% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 5.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2.9 10.9 28.7 30.2 19.0 8.2 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.6% 100.0% 1.5 54.9 42.6 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.4% 100.0% 1.9 29.1 55.9 14.5 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.8% 100.0% 2.1 21.2 49.2 26.7 3.0