Preseason Rankings
Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#44
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.2#305
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 4.5% 4.5% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 13.2% 13.3% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 24.3% 24.4% 5.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.6% 48.9% 17.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.4% 46.6% 16.6%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 7.9
.500 or above 69.5% 69.9% 30.2%
.500 or above in Conference 51.3% 51.5% 21.8%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.0% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 7.0% 20.6%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 2.6%
First Round46.4% 46.7% 16.0%
Second Round29.2% 29.4% 8.1%
Sweet Sixteen13.3% 13.4% 1.7%
Elite Eight5.6% 5.6% 0.0%
Final Four2.4% 2.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 33 - 113 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 348   Holy Cross W 81-56 99%    
  Nov 07, 2024 149   Montana St. W 77-65 88%    
  Nov 10, 2024 139   Appalachian St. W 74-62 86%    
  Nov 15, 2024 11   Arizona L 73-76 40%    
  Nov 18, 2024 284   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-64 96%    
  Nov 22, 2024 71   Central Florida W 71-69 58%    
  Nov 30, 2024 332   Chicago St. W 78-54 98%    
  Dec 03, 2024 30   Michigan W 72-70 55%    
  Dec 07, 2024 26   @ Marquette L 69-74 34%    
  Dec 10, 2024 22   @ Illinois L 71-76 33%    
  Dec 14, 2024 72   Butler W 72-69 59%    
  Dec 22, 2024 342   Detroit Mercy W 82-57 98%    
  Jan 03, 2025 45   Iowa W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 06, 2025 29   @ Rutgers L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 10, 2025 76   Minnesota W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 14, 2025 31   Ohio St. W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 46   @ USC L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 21, 2025 23   @ UCLA L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 26, 2025 51   Nebraska W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 29, 2025 38   @ Maryland L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 60   @ Northwestern L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 04, 2025 20   Indiana W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 45   @ Iowa L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 12   @ Purdue L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 18, 2025 22   Illinois W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 34   Oregon W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 25, 2025 62   Washington W 76-71 64%    
  Mar 02, 2025 24   @ Michigan St. L 64-69 34%    
  Mar 05, 2025 76   @ Minnesota L 69-70 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 67   Penn St. W 74-69 66%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.4 0.8 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.0 0.1 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 3.1 1.5 0.1 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 5.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.7 14th
15th 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.7 0.2 5.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.7 17th
18th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.1 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.3 7.0 8.8 9.8 10.3 10.3 9.5 8.7 7.5 5.9 4.3 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.2% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 93.4% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 78.3% 1.2    0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 54.3% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 23.7% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 63.6% 36.4% 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 46.4% 53.6% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.5% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.6% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 2.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.3% 99.9% 16.1% 83.8% 3.7 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 5.9% 99.5% 12.3% 87.3% 4.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 7.5% 98.1% 7.9% 90.2% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.9%
12-8 8.7% 92.6% 4.5% 88.1% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.6 92.3%
11-9 9.5% 79.8% 2.3% 77.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.1 1.9 79.3%
10-10 10.3% 59.7% 1.3% 58.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.1 59.1%
9-11 10.3% 30.6% 0.7% 29.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.2 30.1%
8-12 9.8% 9.6% 0.2% 9.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.8 9.4%
7-13 8.8% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.7 1.1%
6-14 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.1%
5-15 5.3% 5.3
4-16 3.7% 3.7
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 48.6% 4.2% 44.4% 6.5 1.7 2.8 3.9 4.7 5.3 5.8 5.4 5.2 4.5 4.4 4.0 0.9 0.0 51.4 46.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0