USC
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#78
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#140
Pace69.7#165
Improvement-2.0#344

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#50
First Shot+8.8#16
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#343
Layup/Dunks+3.5#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
Freethrows-0.5#207
Improvement-0.6#288

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#110
First Shot+1.0#148
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#114
Layups/Dunks+1.6#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
Freethrows-3.5#338
Improvement-1.3#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 3.4% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 19.3% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.6% 18.5% 6.9%
Average Seed 8.5 8.5 9.2
.500 or above 52.5% 54.9% 24.9%
.500 or above in Conference 25.2% 26.2% 12.9%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.8% 15.8% 27.7%
First Four3.0% 3.1% 1.7%
First Round16.8% 17.7% 6.1%
Second Round8.4% 8.9% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.7% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 92.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 24 - 47 - 13
Quad 33 - 19 - 15
Quad 46 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 168   Chattanooga W 77-51 85%     1 - 0 +22.4 +6.1 +17.9
  Nov 07, 2024 236   Idaho St. W 75-69 90%     2 - 0 -0.7 +5.3 -5.7
  Nov 13, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 98-95 84%     3 - 0 -0.4 +8.5 -9.3
  Nov 17, 2024 104   California L 66-71 71%     3 - 1 -3.4 -2.0 -1.7
  Nov 20, 2024 251   San Jose St. W 79-64 92%    
  Nov 24, 2024 235   Grambling St. W 76-62 90%    
  Nov 28, 2024 44   St. Mary's L 69-73 37%    
  Dec 04, 2024 40   Oregon L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 07, 2024 84   @ Washington L 74-77 41%    
  Dec 15, 2024 155   Montana St. W 81-71 82%    
  Dec 18, 2024 194   Cal St. Northridge W 84-72 86%    
  Dec 22, 2024 275   Southern W 81-65 92%    
  Jan 04, 2025 24   Michigan L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 08, 2025 22   @ Indiana L 71-80 20%    
  Jan 11, 2025 26   @ Illinois L 73-82 21%    
  Jan 14, 2025 41   Iowa L 80-81 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 38   Wisconsin L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 22, 2025 65   @ Nebraska L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 27, 2025 28   UCLA L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 35   Michigan St. L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 04, 2025 74   @ Northwestern L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 07, 2025 19   @ Purdue L 70-80 20%    
  Feb 11, 2025 32   Penn St. L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 90   Minnesota W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 20, 2025 30   @ Maryland L 68-77 23%    
  Feb 23, 2025 42   @ Rutgers L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 26, 2025 20   Ohio St. L 70-74 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 40   @ Oregon L 70-77 27%    
  Mar 05, 2025 84   Washington W 77-74 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 28   @ UCLA L 64-73 23%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.6 0.1 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.6 0.1 5.4 10th
11th 0.2 2.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 3.8 1.8 0.1 6.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 7.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.3 1.5 0.0 8.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 9.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.0 3.5 0.8 0.0 10.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.8 3.3 1.1 0.1 10.7 17th
18th 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.2 2.4 0.8 0.1 10.5 18th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.5 8.2 10.3 12.2 12.2 11.7 10.5 8.1 6.3 4.5 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 85.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 62.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.5% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.9% 99.4% 11.6% 87.8% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 1.7% 98.0% 6.9% 91.1% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
13-7 2.9% 93.7% 5.8% 87.9% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 93.3%
12-8 4.5% 80.9% 3.0% 77.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.9 80.4%
11-9 6.3% 62.8% 1.3% 61.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.4 62.3%
10-10 8.1% 37.5% 1.0% 36.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.1 5.1 36.9%
9-11 10.5% 13.3% 0.5% 12.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 9.1 12.8%
8-12 11.7% 2.3% 0.1% 2.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.4 2.1%
7-13 12.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 12.2 0.1%
6-14 12.2% 0.1% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1
5-15 10.3% 10.3
4-16 8.2% 8.2
3-17 5.5% 5.5
2-18 2.9% 2.9
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 18.3% 0.9% 17.4% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 81.7 17.6%