Preseason Rankings
New Mexico
Mountain West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#70
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.1#8
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#69
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#71
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 2.9% 3.2% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 6.2% 6.6% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.2% 28.8% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.2% 16.4% 4.9%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.8
.500 or above 84.8% 86.9% 64.3%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 82.5% 66.3%
Conference Champion 18.1% 19.1% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.7% 1.9%
First Four3.6% 3.8% 1.7%
First Round25.5% 26.9% 11.3%
Second Round13.1% 14.0% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.3% 1.4%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.2% 0.5%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 35 - 8
Quad 37 - 212 - 10
Quad 48 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 215   Nicholls St. W 83-69 91%    
  Nov 08, 2024 23   UCLA L 69-73 35%    
  Nov 12, 2024 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 84-70 90%    
  Nov 17, 2024 18   @ St. John's L 76-84 25%    
  Nov 21, 2024 273   Grambling St. W 81-64 93%    
  Nov 24, 2024 261   Texas Southern W 84-68 92%    
  Nov 28, 2024 73   Arizona St. W 79-78 52%    
  Dec 04, 2024 160   San Jose St. W 81-70 83%    
  Dec 07, 2024 161   New Mexico St. W 80-69 83%    
  Dec 18, 2024 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 76-72 64%    
  Dec 28, 2024 84   @ Colorado St. L 73-75 44%    
  Dec 31, 2024 250   @ Fresno St. W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 03, 2025 75   Nevada W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 07, 2025 177   @ Wyoming W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 47   San Diego St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 14, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 17, 2025 63   Boise St. W 77-74 58%    
  Jan 20, 2025 250   Fresno St. W 81-66 90%    
  Jan 25, 2025 95   @ UNLV L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 81   @ Utah St. L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 05, 2025 84   Colorado St. W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 229   @ Air Force W 75-66 76%    
  Feb 12, 2025 177   Wyoming W 83-71 84%    
  Feb 16, 2025 81   Utah St. W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 18, 2025 63   @ Boise St. L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 25, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 71-76 35%    
  Mar 01, 2025 229   Air Force W 78-63 89%    
  Mar 04, 2025 75   @ Nevada L 75-77 42%    
  Mar 07, 2025 95   UNLV W 77-72 66%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 4.4 4.6 3.6 1.7 0.4 18.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 5.0 3.4 1.1 0.2 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.0 4.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.1 4.0 1.2 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.0 6.6 8.3 9.8 11.1 11.4 11.1 9.7 8.1 5.7 3.7 1.7 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.0
18-2 95.9% 3.6    3.2 0.4
17-3 80.2% 4.6    3.4 1.1 0.1
16-4 54.3% 4.4    2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 27.0% 2.6    0.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 11.9 4.9 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 99.4% 60.5% 38.9% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
19-1 1.7% 97.6% 52.6% 45.0% 3.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.9%
18-2 3.7% 93.3% 41.6% 51.7% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 88.5%
17-3 5.7% 83.0% 34.7% 48.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.0 73.9%
16-4 8.1% 65.3% 27.8% 37.5% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.2 2.8 51.9%
15-5 9.7% 46.0% 21.9% 24.1% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.2 30.8%
14-6 11.1% 28.6% 16.7% 11.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.9 14.3%
13-7 11.4% 16.1% 11.2% 4.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.5 5.5%
12-8 11.1% 9.8% 8.0% 1.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.0 1.9%
11-9 9.8% 5.8% 5.5% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.3%
10-10 8.3% 3.8% 3.8% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.1%
9-11 6.6% 2.0% 2.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
8-12 5.0% 1.3% 1.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
7-13 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-14 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-15 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 27.2% 14.2% 13.1% 8.8 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.9 4.2 6.6 2.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.8 15.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 62.8 27.0 7.3 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 16.7 50.0 16.7 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 27.3 50.0 22.7