New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#38
Expected Predictive Rating+14.5#33
Pace80.5#4
Improvement+2.3#90

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#70
First Shot+4.2#70
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#143
Layup/Dunks+6.1#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#295
Freethrows+2.5#48
Improvement-1.0#232

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#22
First Shot+5.4#39
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#31
Layups/Dunks+2.8#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#211
Freethrows+0.5#142
Improvement+3.3#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 6.3% 12.8% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.1% 93.2% 80.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.2% 90.0% 72.3%
Average Seed 8.8 8.2 9.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.7% 99.0% 89.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.2% 2.1% 9.8%
First Round82.8% 92.0% 74.9%
Second Round37.6% 45.2% 31.1%
Sweet Sixteen8.5% 11.1% 6.2%
Elite Eight3.0% 4.1% 2.0%
Final Four0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 24 - 3
Quad 28 - 112 - 5
Quad 34 - 216 - 6
Quad 49 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 192   Nicholls St. W 91-84 93%     1 - 0 +2.6 +0.4 +1.0
  Nov 08, 2024 27   UCLA W 72-64 41%     2 - 0 +22.7 +2.4 +19.8
  Nov 12, 2024 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 100-81 93%     3 - 0 +14.3 +8.9 +2.2
  Nov 17, 2024 14   @ St. John's L 71-85 22%     3 - 1 +6.4 +13.1 -6.8
  Nov 21, 2024 327   Grambling St. W 80-58 98%     4 - 1 +9.3 -5.7 +12.4
  Nov 24, 2024 296   Texas Southern W 99-68 97%     5 - 1 +20.9 +15.0 +2.8
  Nov 28, 2024 65   Arizona St. L 82-85 65%     5 - 2 +5.3 +10.8 -5.3
  Nov 29, 2024 59   USC W 83-73 59%     6 - 2 +20.1 +11.8 +8.0
  Dec 04, 2024 163   San Jose St. W 83-77 91%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +3.3 +6.9 -3.6
  Dec 07, 2024 146   New Mexico St. L 83-89 OT 90%     7 - 3 -7.7 +3.5 -10.6
  Dec 18, 2024 34   Virginia Commonwealth W 78-71 57%     8 - 3 +17.6 +7.5 +9.8
  Dec 28, 2024 67   @ Colorado St. W 76-68 56%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +18.9 +9.1 +9.9
  Dec 31, 2024 254   @ Fresno St. W 103-89 91%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +11.3 +10.4 -1.8
  Jan 03, 2025 80   Nevada W 82-81 OT 77%     11 - 3 4 - 0 +5.7 +3.7 +1.9
  Jan 07, 2025 166   @ Wyoming W 61-53 83%     12 - 3 5 - 0 +10.3 -7.3 +17.7
  Jan 11, 2025 51   San Diego St. W 62-48 66%     13 - 3 6 - 0 +22.2 +0.0 +22.8
  Jan 14, 2025 163   @ San Jose St. L 70-71 83%     13 - 4 6 - 1 +1.4 -4.7 +6.1
  Jan 17, 2025 49   Boise St. W 84-65 65%     14 - 4 7 - 1 +27.4 +11.7 +15.0
  Jan 20, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 95-67 96%     15 - 4 8 - 1 +20.2 +5.8 +10.3
  Jan 25, 2025 98   @ UNLV W 75-73 68%     16 - 4 9 - 1 +9.4 +10.6 -1.0
  Feb 01, 2025 45   @ Utah St. W 82-63 44%     17 - 4 10 - 1 +32.9 +8.1 +23.7
  Feb 05, 2025 67   Colorado St. W 87-65 74%     18 - 4 11 - 1 +27.8 +21.3 +7.8
  Feb 08, 2025 294   @ Air Force W 88-53 94%     19 - 4 12 - 1 +30.2 +6.2 +21.2
  Feb 12, 2025 166   Wyoming W 71-67 92%     20 - 4 13 - 1 +1.2 -2.8 +3.9
  Feb 16, 2025 45   Utah St. W 82-79 64%     21 - 4 14 - 1 +11.8 +11.8 +0.0
  Feb 19, 2025 49   @ Boise St. L 78-86 46%     21 - 5 14 - 2 +5.5 +7.4 -1.6
  Feb 25, 2025 51   @ San Diego St. L 71-72 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 294   Air Force W 83-61 98%    
  Mar 04, 2025 80   @ Nevada W 74-71 59%    
  Mar 07, 2025 98   UNLV W 78-68 84%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.5 24.4 43.8 23.9 93.7 1st
2nd 2.4 3.6 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 4.2 27.9 43.8 23.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 23.9    23.9
17-3 100.0% 43.8    37.7 6.2
16-4 87.3% 24.4    9.5 13.4 1.5
15-5 36.1% 1.5    0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 93.7% 93.7 71.2 20.0 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 23.9% 96.9% 32.8% 64.1% 7.6 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.2 4.7 6.0 5.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 95.4%
17-3 43.8% 90.0% 32.1% 57.9% 9.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 8.6 14.5 10.3 2.5 4.4 85.3%
16-4 27.9% 75.8% 26.1% 49.7% 9.7 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.1 8.8 4.2 0.1 6.8 67.3%
15-5 4.2% 54.5% 16.3% 38.2% 10.3 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.0 1.9 45.6%
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 86.1% 29.9% 56.2% 8.8 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.9 7.6 16.5 26.3 21.4 8.0 0.1 13.9 80.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.9% 100.0% 6.1 1.3 5.5 21.6 36.0 26.6 7.8 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.4% 98.0% 8.0 0.7 4.5 24.7 37.4 26.4 4.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.0% 95.0% 8.4 0.5 1.7 13.2 33.3 35.2 10.5 0.4 0.1