Preseason Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#250
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#295
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#275
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#199
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 14.1
.500 or above 8.0% 10.3% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 6.6% 8.1% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 41.8% 37.4% 52.7%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 21 - 71 - 12
Quad 33 - 74 - 19
Quad 45 - 39 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 300   Sacramento St. W 67-61 71%    
  Nov 13, 2024 167   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-72 25%    
  Nov 16, 2024 278   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 62-64 44%    
  Nov 20, 2024 344   Prairie View W 75-65 83%    
  Nov 23, 2024 245   @ Long Beach St. L 71-74 39%    
  Nov 26, 2024 91   Washington St. L 59-70 17%    
  Dec 04, 2024 47   San Diego St. L 59-70 17%    
  Dec 07, 2024 98   @ Santa Clara L 64-77 13%    
  Dec 11, 2024 32   @ BYU L 61-80 5%    
  Dec 14, 2024 282   San Diego W 73-68 66%    
  Dec 21, 2024 163   California Baptist L 64-65 45%    
  Dec 28, 2024 95   @ UNLV L 60-73 13%    
  Dec 31, 2024 70   New Mexico L 69-78 21%    
  Jan 04, 2025 81   @ Utah St. L 63-77 11%    
  Jan 07, 2025 84   @ Colorado St. L 59-73 12%    
  Jan 11, 2025 75   Nevada L 62-71 23%    
  Jan 18, 2025 229   Air Force W 64-62 57%    
  Jan 20, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 66-81 10%    
  Jan 25, 2025 84   Colorado St. L 62-70 25%    
  Jan 28, 2025 177   @ Wyoming L 65-72 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 63   @ Boise St. L 58-74 10%    
  Feb 04, 2025 160   San Jose St. L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 81   Utah St. L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 11, 2025 75   @ Nevada L 59-74 11%    
  Feb 15, 2025 95   UNLV L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 18, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 56-73 8%    
  Feb 22, 2025 229   @ Air Force L 61-65 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 63   Boise St. L 61-71 21%    
  Mar 04, 2025 177   Wyoming L 68-69 49%    
  Mar 08, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. L 63-70 27%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.7 5.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 0.3 2.5 6.4 7.7 5.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 24.6 10th
11th 3.2 7.5 9.5 6.9 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 31.3 11th
Total 3.2 7.8 12.0 13.9 13.7 13.0 10.7 8.4 6.2 4.4 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 32.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 69.4% 55.6% 13.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.3%
16-4 0.1% 19.8% 11.9% 7.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.0%
15-5 0.1% 8.7% 4.1% 4.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.7%
14-6 0.3% 12.5% 11.4% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3%
13-7 0.6% 5.4% 5.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.1% 4.8% 4.6% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2%
11-9 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-10 2.7% 1.4% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
9-11 4.4% 0.8% 0.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
8-12 6.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
7-13 8.4% 0.3% 0.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
6-14 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 10.7
5-15 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.0
4-16 13.7% 13.7
3-17 13.9% 13.9
2-18 12.0% 12.0
1-19 7.8% 7.8
0-20 3.2% 3.2
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%