Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#254
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#300
Pace77.3#15
Improvement+1.6#116

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#287
First Shot-2.6#247
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#274
Layup/Dunks-0.3#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#218
Freethrows-0.4#203
Improvement+3.3#45

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#204
First Shot-1.9#236
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#109
Layups/Dunks-2.9#292
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#295
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#238
Freethrows+3.3#12
Improvement-1.6#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.8% 0.7% 52.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 60 - 8
Quad 20 - 80 - 16
Quad 30 - 81 - 23
Quad 46 - 36 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 332   Sacramento St. W 64-57 78%     1 - 0 -6.3 -12.7 +6.5
  Nov 13, 2024 145   @ UC Santa Barbara L 86-91 20%     1 - 1 -1.5 +1.5 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 240   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 37%     1 - 2 -17.8 -19.7 +2.5
  Nov 20, 2024 356   Prairie View W 94-83 85%     2 - 2 -5.3 +1.6 -8.3
  Nov 23, 2024 304   @ Long Beach St. W 72-69 52%     3 - 2 -2.8 -7.3 +4.4
  Nov 26, 2024 107   Washington St. L 73-84 20%     3 - 3 -7.4 -9.2 +3.3
  Nov 27, 2024 158   California Baptist L 81-86 2OT 30%     3 - 4 -4.8 -6.6 +2.8
  Dec 04, 2024 51   San Diego St. L 62-84 11%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -13.8 -8.7 -3.0
  Dec 07, 2024 60   @ Santa Clara L 66-81 6%     3 - 6 -2.7 -7.0 +5.5
  Dec 11, 2024 26   @ BYU L 67-95 3%     3 - 7 -10.6 -5.2 -3.1
  Dec 14, 2024 314   San Diego W 73-65 73%     4 - 7 -3.7 -5.7 +1.9
  Dec 21, 2024 158   California Baptist L 69-86 39%     4 - 8 -19.3 -1.8 -18.3
  Dec 28, 2024 98   @ UNLV L 77-87 12%     4 - 9 0 - 2 -2.6 +10.5 -13.2
  Dec 31, 2024 38   New Mexico L 89-103 9%     4 - 10 0 - 3 -4.1 +5.2 -6.6
  Jan 04, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 83-89 5%     4 - 11 0 - 4 +7.9 +5.8 +2.6
  Jan 07, 2025 67   @ Colorado St. L 64-91 8%     4 - 12 0 - 5 -16.1 -6.6 -8.7
  Jan 11, 2025 80   Nevada L 66-77 OT 18%     4 - 13 0 - 6 -6.3 -8.7 +2.9
  Jan 17, 2025 294   Air Force W 74-65 67%     5 - 13 1 - 6 -0.9 +5.1 -4.9
  Jan 20, 2025 38   @ New Mexico L 67-95 4%     5 - 14 1 - 7 -13.1 -6.9 -2.0
  Jan 25, 2025 67   Colorado St. L 64-69 15%     5 - 15 1 - 8 +0.8 +1.1 -1.0
  Jan 28, 2025 166   @ Wyoming L 72-83 OT 24%     5 - 16 1 - 9 -8.7 +0.6 -9.1
  Feb 01, 2025 49   @ Boise St. L 60-82 5%     5 - 17 1 - 10 -8.5 -4.8 -4.4
  Feb 04, 2025 163   San Jose St. L 91-94 2OT 40%     5 - 18 1 - 11 -5.7 -2.2 -2.9
  Feb 07, 2025 45   Utah St. L 81-89 10%     5 - 19 1 - 12 +0.8 +10.2 -9.5
  Feb 10, 2025 80   @ Nevada L 69-94 9%     5 - 20 1 - 13 -15.3 +0.7 -15.9
  Feb 15, 2025 98   UNLV L 51-52 23%     5 - 21 1 - 14 +1.4 -15.1 +16.4
  Feb 18, 2025 51   @ San Diego St. L 60-83 5%     5 - 22 1 - 15 -9.8 -0.5 -9.8
  Feb 22, 2025 294   @ Air Force L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 49   Boise St. L 68-82 11%    
  Mar 04, 2025 166   Wyoming L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 163   @ San Jose St. L 71-79 22%    
Projected Record 6 - 25 2 - 18




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.4 0.4 9th
10th 17.6 41.7 27.0 7.3 0.2 93.8 10th
11th 5.3 0.5 0.0 5.8 11th
Total 22.9 42.2 27.0 7.3 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 7.3% 7.3
3-17 27.0% 27.0
2-18 42.2% 42.2
1-19 22.9% 22.9
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 20.4%