IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.6	#229
Expected Predictive Rating	-2.1	#201

Pace	63.0	#326
Improvement	-0.6	#234

Offense
Total Offense	-1.4	#211

First Shot	-1.8	#229
After Offensive Rebound	+0.4	#160

Layup/Dunks	-4.5	#323
2 Pt Jumpshots	+6.5	#6
3 Pt Jumpshots	-5.3	#335
Freethrows	+1.5	#92

Improvement	-0.1	#181

Defense
Total Defense	-2.1	#238

First Shot	-2.4	#257
After Offensive Rebounds	+0.3	#153

Layups/Dunks	+3.5	#69
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.5	#152
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.1	#235
Freethrows	-5.3	#363

Improvement	-0.5	#227

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.8%	0.9%	0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.9	14.3

.500 or above	22.0%	27.4%	10.9%
.500 or above in Conference	26.4%	29.5%	20.0%
Conference Champion	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	15.0%	13.0%	19.1%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.8%	0.9%	0.5%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 67.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 5
Quad 3	5 - 8	5 - 13
Quad 4	8 - 5	13 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	118	@ California	L	73-86	19%	0 - 1			-7.3	-3.0	-3.8
Nov 11, 2024	130	North Dakota St.	W	86-81	41%	1 - 1			+3.8	+17.2	-12.9
Nov 16, 2024	257	Fresno St.	W	74-58	67%	2 - 1			+7.8	-2.1	+9.3
Nov 22, 2024	192	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	54-74	31%	2 - 2			-18.3	-7.3	-15.1
Nov 23, 2024	248	Florida International	L	73-76 OT	55%	2 - 3			-7.8	-2.0	-5.7
Nov 24, 2024	160	Northeastern	W	68-60	37%	3 - 3			+7.8	+5.1	+3.7
Nov 30, 2024	218	@ Southern Utah	L	64-74	35%	3 - 4			-9.6	-6.5	-3.5
Dec 05, 2024	60	@ UC Irvine	L	66-82	8%	3 - 5	0 - 1		-3.8	+3.8	-7.8
Dec 07, 2024	91	@ UC San Diego	L	60-81	12%	3 - 6	0 - 2		-11.9	-7.5	-4.6
Dec 18, 2024	325	@ Portland	W	81-64	61%	4 - 6			+10.7	+15.3	-2.6
Dec 21, 2024	260	Portland St.	W	75-70	67%
Dec 23, 2024	130	@ North Dakota St.	L	66-74	22%
Jan 02, 2025	185	UC Davis	W	69-68	53%
Jan 04, 2025	261	Long Beach St.	W	70-65	67%
Jan 09, 2025	138	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	65-73	23%
Jan 11, 2025	158	Cal St. Northridge	L	73-74	48%
Jan 19, 2025	174	@ Hawaii	L	64-70	29%
Jan 23, 2025	275	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	65-66	48%
Jan 25, 2025	171	UC Riverside	W	69-68	51%
Jan 30, 2025	265	Cal Poly	W	80-75	67%
Feb 01, 2025	158	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	70-76	28%
Feb 06, 2025	138	UC Santa Barbara	L	68-70	43%
Feb 08, 2025	171	@ UC Riverside	L	66-72	30%
Feb 13, 2025	91	UC San Diego	L	64-71	27%
Feb 15, 2025	275	Cal St. Fullerton	W	69-63	69%
Feb 20, 2025	185	@ UC Davis	L	66-71	31%
Feb 22, 2025	60	UC Irvine	L	63-73	19%
Feb 27, 2025	261	@ Long Beach St.	L	67-68	46%
Mar 01, 2025	265	@ Cal Poly	L	77-78	47%
Mar 06, 2025	174	Hawaii	W	68-67	51%
Projected Record						13 - 17	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0					1.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	1.0	1.8	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.0						5.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	1.6	3.2	2.0	0.6	0.1								7.6	4th
5th									0.2	1.9	4.5	2.4	0.5	0.0									9.5	5th
6th								0.2	2.1	5.3	3.3	0.6	0.0										11.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	2.1	6.1	4.1	0.7	0.0											13.2	7th
8th						0.2	2.4	6.5	4.6	0.9	0.0												14.7	8th
9th				0.0	0.4	2.7	6.0	4.5	1.0	0.0													14.7	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.8	3.0	5.0	3.3	0.7	0.0														12.9	10th
11th	0.1	0.4	1.3	2.3	2.8	1.5	0.4	0.0															8.9	11th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.5	3.1	6.2	9.4	12.3	14.0	14.1	12.5	10.2	7.2	4.4	2.5	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0						Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	69.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
16-4	43.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
15-5	15.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	3.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0						0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.2%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	0.0%																			0.0				0.0
16-4	0.1%		17.0%	17.0%		12.3													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
15-5	0.6%		9.8%	9.8%		13.0													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.5
14-6	1.3%		10.3%	10.3%		13.4													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.1
13-7	2.5%		5.0%	5.0%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		2.4
12-8	4.4%		3.3%	3.3%		13.6													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		4.3
11-9	7.2%		1.7%	1.7%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		7.1
10-10	10.2%		0.8%	0.8%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.1
9-11	12.5%		0.6%	0.6%		15.2															0.0	0.1	0.0	12.4
8-12	14.1%		0.2%	0.2%		15.8																0.0	0.0	14.0
7-13	14.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	14.0
6-14	12.3%																							12.3
5-15	9.4%																							9.4
4-16	6.2%																							6.2
3-17	3.1%																							3.1
2-18	1.5%																							1.5
1-19	0.4%																							0.4
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		0.8%	0.8%	0.0%	14.0													0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	99.2		0.0%