Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#240
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#236
Pace64.9#268
Improvement+0.1#187

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#188
First Shot-1.7#221
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#107
Layup/Dunks-3.9#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#352
Freethrows+2.1#65
Improvement+0.9#137

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#292
First Shot-4.0#304
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#180
Layups/Dunks+1.1#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#171
Freethrows-6.1#364
Improvement-0.9#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.2 15.9
.500 or above 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 14.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 34 - 64 - 14
Quad 48 - 512 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 112   @ California L 73-86 17%     0 - 1 -7.2 -2.0 -4.7
  Nov 11, 2024 136   North Dakota St. W 86-81 38%     1 - 1 +3.8 +16.0 -11.8
  Nov 16, 2024 254   Fresno St. W 74-58 63%     2 - 1 +8.2 -4.0 +11.6
  Nov 22, 2024 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 54-74 29%     2 - 2 -18.5 -8.6 -14.0
  Nov 23, 2024 268   Florida International L 73-76 OT 55%     2 - 3 -8.6 -1.7 -6.8
  Nov 24, 2024 212   Northeastern W 68-60 43%     3 - 3 +5.4 +2.5 +3.8
  Nov 30, 2024 282   @ Southern Utah L 64-74 49%     3 - 4 -14.1 -7.1 -7.4
  Dec 05, 2024 85   @ UC Irvine L 66-82 11%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -6.7 +3.0 -10.0
  Dec 07, 2024 54   @ UC San Diego L 60-81 6%     3 - 6 0 - 2 -7.9 -5.7 -2.3
  Dec 18, 2024 284   @ Portland W 81-64 50%     4 - 6 +12.6 +13.5 +1.2
  Dec 21, 2024 201   Portland St. L 58-59 51%     4 - 7 -5.7 -13.9 +8.2
  Dec 23, 2024 136   @ North Dakota St. L 60-94 22%     4 - 8 -30.1 -14.4 -16.6
  Jan 02, 2025 222   UC Davis W 75-64 55%     5 - 8 1 - 2 +5.2 +9.3 -3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 80-65 73%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +4.1 +11.3 -5.2
  Jan 09, 2025 145   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-78 23%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -8.5 -2.5 -6.7
  Jan 11, 2025 114   Cal St. Northridge W 94-90 33%     7 - 9 3 - 3 +4.3 +15.3 -11.3
  Jan 18, 2025 207   @ Hawaii L 70-81 34%     7 - 10 3 - 4 -11.0 -1.5 -9.5
  Jan 23, 2025 342   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 71-68 69%     8 - 10 4 - 4 -6.5 -7.0 +0.4
  Jan 25, 2025 149   UC Riverside L 79-83 40%     8 - 11 4 - 5 -5.9 +11.9 -18.1
  Jan 30, 2025 242   Cal Poly L 81-90 60%     8 - 12 4 - 6 -16.0 -0.9 -14.6
  Feb 01, 2025 114   @ Cal St. Northridge L 62-88 18%     8 - 13 4 - 7 -20.6 -11.1 -8.0
  Feb 06, 2025 145   UC Santa Barbara L 75-81 39%     8 - 14 4 - 8 -7.6 +10.3 -18.8
  Feb 08, 2025 149   @ UC Riverside L 64-69 23%     8 - 15 4 - 9 -1.8 -1.2 -1.1
  Feb 13, 2025 54   UC San Diego L 54-73 13%     8 - 16 4 - 10 -11.0 -3.1 -12.0
  Feb 15, 2025 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 91-54 83%     9 - 16 5 - 10 +22.4 +12.5 +9.8
  Feb 20, 2025 222   @ UC Davis W 71-66 36%     10 - 16 6 - 10 +4.3 +7.2 -2.5
  Feb 22, 2025 85   UC Irvine L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 27, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. W 71-70 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 242   @ Cal Poly L 79-82 39%    
  Mar 06, 2025 207   Hawaii W 70-69 54%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.6 5th
6th 4.6 1.8 6.5 6th
7th 7.0 27.0 12.6 1.0 47.6 7th
8th 3.2 19.3 8.5 0.2 31.2 8th
9th 8.1 5.8 0.2 14.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 11.4 32.1 35.7 17.6 3.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 3.2
9-11 17.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 17.6
8-12 35.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 35.6
7-13 32.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 32.1
6-14 11.4% 11.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 11.3%