Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#295
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#245
Pace72.6#109
Improvement-1.7#297

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#260
First Shot-4.7#299
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#122
Layup/Dunks-1.5#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.3#361
Freethrows+4.7#8
Improvement+0.4#146

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#309
First Shot-1.2#213
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#317
Layups/Dunks-4.0#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#50
Freethrows-1.0#249
Improvement-2.1#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 6.3% 11.7% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 9.1% 12.6% 7.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.6% 24.9% 33.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 83 - 14
Quad 48 - 611 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 76 @California L 60-87 6%     0 - 1 -16.4 -10.7 -4.5
  Tue, Nov 11 361 Western Illinois W 74-58 83%     1 - 1 -1.5 -4.5 +3.8
  Fri, Nov 14 57 @Mississippi L 60-82 4%     1 - 2 -9.0 +1.2 -12.9
  Mon, Nov 17 171 @Portland St. L 80-93 19%     1 - 3 -11.1 +6.6 -17.0
  Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86-70 94%     2 - 3 -9.1 -2.7 -7.5
  Tue, Nov 25 101 @Florida St. L 59-89 8%     2 - 4 -22.1 -17.0 -0.9
  Sun, Nov 30 183 @Fresno St. W 76-71 20%     3 - 4 +6.3 +4.0 +2.3
  Thu, Dec 4 261 @Cal St. Northridge L 66-87 31%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -23.4 -11.2 -11.1
  Sat, Dec 6 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 84-109 14%     3 - 6 0 - 2 -20.7 +6.2 -26.0
  Thu, Dec 11 155 North Dakota St. L 72-76 35%    
  Sat, Dec 13 311 Pepperdine W 74-70 65%    
  Tue, Dec 23 173 Idaho L 74-77 38%    
  Thu, Jan 1 120 UC Irvine L 67-74 24%    
  Sat, Jan 3 170 @UC Davis L 68-77 19%    
  Thu, Jan 8 258 UC Riverside W 76-75 53%    
  Sat, Jan 10 280 @Long Beach St. L 72-76 36%    
  Thu, Jan 15 141 UC Santa Barbara L 73-79 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 103 UC San Diego L 72-81 20%    
  Fri, Jan 23 104 @Hawaii L 68-83 9%    
  Thu, Jan 29 252 Cal Poly W 84-83 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 170 UC Davis L 71-74 39%    
  Thu, Feb 5 120 @UC Irvine L 64-77 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 303 @Cal St. Fullerton L 83-85 42%    
  Thu, Feb 12 104 Hawaii L 71-80 22%    
  Thu, Feb 19 258 @UC Riverside L 73-78 33%    
  Sat, Feb 21 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 86-82 63%    
  Thu, Feb 26 103 @UC San Diego L 69-84 9%    
  Sat, Feb 28 280 Long Beach St. W 75-73 58%    
  Thu, Mar 5 261 Cal St. Northridge W 80-79 53%    
  Sat, Mar 7 252 @Cal Poly L 81-86 31%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 14.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 5.1 6.9 3.6 0.5 0.0 17.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.7 7.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 20.2 10th
11th 0.4 1.8 4.3 6.3 5.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 20.4 11th
Total 0.4 1.8 4.8 8.6 13.0 15.2 15.0 14.2 10.6 7.5 4.5 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 71.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 6.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 12.2% 12.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.5% 6.2% 6.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.2% 2.9% 2.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
11-9 2.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
10-10 4.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.5
9-11 7.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 7.4
8-12 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.6
7-13 14.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.1
6-14 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.0
5-15 15.2% 15.2
4-16 13.0% 13.0
3-17 8.6% 8.6
2-18 4.8% 4.8
1-19 1.8% 1.8
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%