UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.8 133
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 141
Pace 63.5 320
Improvement +3.3 54

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #78 B+ C D+ C+ C+
Defense C- #247 D C+ C+ D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 181 63% 77 +1.8 111
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 218 39% 126 -0.4 204
Three Pointers 43% 149 39% 13 +4.4 42
1st FG Attempt 1.13 41 +5.7 41
Second Chance 32.5% 120 0.98 251 0.32 155
Turnovers 18.2% 269
Freethrows 0.31 176 77% 29 0.24 122
Total Offense +4.1 78

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 168 62% 289 -1.9 252
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 192 43% 320 -0.7 250
Three Pointers 41% 182 35% 247 -0.8 224
1st FG Attempt 1.09 293 -3.5 293
Second Chance 27.3% 72 1.05 228 0.29 103
Turnovers 17.4% 153
Freethrows 0.35 307 73% 226 0.26 308
Total Defense -2.3 247

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.2 158 +0.1 186
Shot Type Accuracy +5.3 36 +3.3 306
Possession Length 18.6 307 17.7 260
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 255 0.17 173
Improvement +0.8 #135 +2.6 #52

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 18% 12%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 14% 17% 5%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round16% 18% 12%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 72.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 67 - 9
Quad 412 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 236 San Jose St. W 85 - 74 80% +9  95% 1 - 0 C+ +4 A+ +15 A+ B- C F+ -10 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 254 @Sacramento St. W 92 - 87 66% +6  83% 2 - 0 C+ +3 A- +10 B D+ A D- -7 F C C+
 Mon, Nov 17 151 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 78 OT 66% +3  56% 2 - 1 D+ -7 D -4 D+ C+ A+ C- -2 C- B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 66 @Nevada L 64 - 77 18% -8  1% 2 - 2 C- -2 D -5 D B F B- +3 D+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 306 Lehigh W 72 - 70 83% -1  45% 3 - 2 D+ -6 C -0 F C- B D -6 C- D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 132 Seattle W 74 - 71 50% +1  52% 4 - 2 C+ +5 A+ +14 A+ A+ F D- -9 F+ D+ D-
 Thu, Dec 4 251 Long Beach St. W 84 - 77 OT 82% +1  53% 5 - 2 1 - 0 C -1 C +0 B- F D+ C- -2 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 322 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109 - 84 91% +14  93% 6 - 2 2 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +24 A+ A+ B F -13 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 91 Utah Valley L 53 - 68 36% -12  0% 6 - 3 D -10 F -17 F C F B+ +7 A- A B-
 Wed, Dec 17 244 @Green Bay L 64 - 67 63% -8  0% 6 - 4 C- -5 C- -1 A- C+ F D+ -4 F A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 206 Portland W 79 - 61 76% +11  78% 7 - 4 B+ +12 A- +10 A+ B- D- B +4 A F B
 Thu, Jan 1 210 @Cal St. Fullerton L 84 - 95 56% -13  0% 7 - 5 2 - 1 D -11 C+ +3 A+ C- F F -13 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 3 186 @Cal St. Northridge L 65 - 74 51% -6  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D+ -8 F -13 F F+ F+ B +5 C+ D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 8 180 UC Davis L 86 - 93 72% +3  51% 7 - 7 2 - 3 D- -11 B +7 A+ F A+ F -18 F F+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75 - 69 80% +9  97% 8 - 7 3 - 3 C -1 B +7 B F+ C D -7 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 102 Hawaii W 77 - 62 50% +12  98% 9 - 7 4 - 3 A- +17 A+ +16 A+ A- D- B- +3 B- B- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 265 Cal Poly W 107 - 67 84% +24  99% 10 - 7 5 - 3 A+ +31 A+ +31 A+ A B+ C+ +2 D+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 251 @Long Beach St. W 74 - 71 64% +8  96% 11 - 7 6 - 3 C +1 B +6 C+ C+ A D+ -5 F+ A F+
 Thu, Jan 29 139 @UC San Diego W 62 - 48 41% +9  92% 12 - 7 7 - 3 A +18 D -6 D+ D D A+ +25 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 210 Cal St. Fullerton W 83 - 69 77% +13  99% 13 - 7 8 - 3 B +8 C+ +2 B+ D D- B +5 C+ C A
 Thu, Feb 5 180 @UC Davis L 75 - 85 50% -5  14% 13 - 8 8 - 4 D -8 B +7 B- C+ D+ F -16 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 119 UC Irvine W 84 - 79 57% +6  58% 14 - 8 9 - 4 B- +5 A +12 A+ B+ D D -7 F+ A D+
 Thu, Feb 12 293 @UC Riverside W 76 - 70 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 265 @Cal Poly W 84 - 79 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 186 Cal St. Northridge W 83 - 77 73%
 Sun, Feb 22 102 @Hawaii L 70 - 76 29%
 Thu, Feb 26 293 UC Riverside W 79 - 67 88%
 Sat, Feb 28 119 @UC Irvine L 69 - 73 35%
 Sat, Mar 7 139 UC San Diego W 75 - 71 63%
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 7 +2 B- +4 B+ C D+ C- -2 D C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- C+ A- B+ 39% 19% 43% C+ B+ C+ C- C D+ C B+ C+ C- D+ D C- D 39% 20% 41% C D B C- C+ C+ D C- D
1.14 63% 39% 39% +5 0 1.13 33% 1.0 .32 18% .31 77% .24 1.12 62% 43% 35% +3 0 1.09 27% 1.1 .29 17% .35 73% .23
Nov
8		 San Jose St. A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% D+ A+ B+ D+ B- C A C- A- F+ C F A+ D 32% 32% 36% C+ D F F F A+ F F+ F
1.36 65% 60% 53% +19 0 1.39 42% 1.1 .46 18% .37 74% .27 1.18 57% 64% 25% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.5 .64 22% .43 81% .35
Nov
11		 Sacramento St. A- D+ F+ A+ B+ 44% 17% 39% C- B D B- D+ A A- B- A- D- C- F F F 40% 27% 33% D+ F B F C C+ D A+ C+
1.25 54% 33% 48% +6 +1 1.15 29% 1.2 .34 11% .38 76% .29 1.19 57% 57% 41% +8 -1 1.17 24% 1.4 .32 16% .37 65% .24
Nov
17		 Loyola Marymount D C F F D 39% 24% 37% C+ D+ D A C+ A+ D D D C- A C+ F C- 37% 21% 42% D+ C- D A+ B+ C+ F A+ F
1.00 54% 27% 26% -9 0 0.84 27% 1.3 .33 8% .25 71% .18 1.06 47% 36% 45% +3 0 1.08 31% 0.7 .21 19% .48 52% .25
Nov
22		 Nevada D C- F F D- 38% 11% 51% B D C A+ B F A+ F+ B+ B- F+ F+ A- D+ 45% 25% 30% D D+ A A A+ A+ F F F
0.94 53% 20% 26% -10 +1 0.84 26% 1.5 .39 22% .43 65% .28 1.13 65% 45% 31% +4 0 1.09 26% 0.9 .22 19% .54 87% .47
Nov
28		 Lehigh C F+ C F F 54% 22% 24% B F B+ F C- B A+ A+ A+ D D A+ F+ C- 20% 20% 61% B- C- C F D- C F F F
1.12 48% 40% 18% -11 +1 0.83 41% 0.8 .32 14% .58 88% .51 1.09 63% 13% 40% +2 -1 1.02 21% 1.3 .29 19% .44 91% .40
Nov
29		 Seattle A+ C A+ A A+ 31% 14% 56% C+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ A+ D- D- F B+ F 49% 28% 23% B F+ B+ F D+ D- F A- F+
1.18 55% 60% 40% +7 0 1.17 50% 1.1 .54 27% .55 88% .48 1.13 67% 58% 30% +9 0 1.19 20% 1.2 .24 14% .41 64% .26
Dec
4		 Long Beach St. C C- A A A- 15% 43% 43% F B- C F F D+ A+ A A+ C- B A+ C A 16% 40% 44% A+ A+ F F F C+ F D- F
1.14 57% 50% 40% +9 -5 1.11 28% 0.4 .13 19% .64 84% .54 1.04 56% 23% 33% -7 -4 0.80 39% 1.3 .50 18% .40 79% .31
Dec
6		 Cal St. Bakersfield A+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 13% 48% C+ A+ A B+ A+ B A+ A A+ F D+ D+ F F 37% 22% 41% F F A+ A+ A+ D- F B F
1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44 1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43
Dec
13		 Utah Valley F F F+ F F 57% 22% 22% B F C C- C F D A+ C B+ A+ F C+ A- 45% 11% 45% C A- C+ A+ A B- D F F+
0.78 35% 30% 20% -19 +1 0.65 31% 1.0 .31 28% .29 86% .25 1.01 43% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.8 .30 22% .34 78% .27
Dec
17		 Green Bay C- A+ C+ C+ B+ 48% 12% 40% A A- D- A+ C+ F F C- F D+ B- A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F A+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ B-
1.13 75% 40% 35% +9 +2 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 19% .15 71% .11 1.18 52% 0% 52% +10 +3 1.28 11% 0.3 .04 12% .46 52% .24
Dec
22		 Portland A- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 11% 55% B- A+ C+ B- B- D- F F F B C+ B A+ A+ 50% 19% 31% D+ A C- F F B A- A+ A
1.24 81% 20% 46% +16 +1 1.36 33% 1.1 .37 20% .18 56% .10 0.96 58% 33% 13% -10 +1 0.83 31% 1.6 .50 22% .22 64% .14
Jan
1		 Cal St. Fullerton C+ A+ B A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% C- A+ B+ F C- F F A+ D+ F F F A+ F 43% 25% 31% C+ F A F D- D F F F
1.10 85% 43% 45% +17 0 1.37 37% 0.8 .30 32% .19 100% .19 1.25 77% 54% 25% +8 0 1.18 17% 1.8 .31 13% .56 81% .45
Jan
3		 Cal St. Northridge F D+ F F F 46% 5% 48% A+ F D+ F F+ F+ B A+ A- B D F A+ B- 52% 14% 33% D C+ C+ D- D+ A- F B F
0.89 54% 0% 19% -15 +3 0.77 24% 0.9 .21 19% .34 85% .29 1.01 64% 67% 14% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.1 .34 22% .65 62% .40
Jan
8		 UC Davis B A- D+ A+ A+ 37% 18% 45% D+ A+ F C F A+ A- F C+ F F C F F 22% 22% 57% B+ F C F F+ D D- F F
1.21 68% 33% 52% +15 0 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 13% .40 64% .26 1.31 91% 36% 41% +13 -1 1.25 27% 1.4 .37 15% .40 83% .33
Jan
15		 Cal St. Bakersfield B C+ A- B+ B+ 24% 14% 62% D+ B D+ F F+ C A+ A A+ D C F A+ C- 39% 39% 22% B- C- C- F F F D B- D+
1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45 1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28
Jan
17		 Hawaii A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 27% 38% D- A+ B+ B A- D- C A+ B B- A+ F D+ B- 39% 16% 45% B- B- C- A- B- B- A D B+
1.24 75% 42% 41% +11 -1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 19% .30 80% .24 1.00 41% 57% 35% -3 +1 0.98 32% 0.9 .29 21% .26 77% .20
Jan
22		 Cal Poly A+ A+ F A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B- A+ A+ C A B+ F C F C+ F A+ A- D+ 39% 7% 54% C- D+ A+ F A- D+ D- A D+
1.60 95% 29% 56% +29 +1 1.63 45% 1.1 .50 13% .19 73% .14 1.00 78% 0% 28% 0 +2 1.07 17% 1.2 .21 19% .37 70% .26
Jan
24		 Long Beach St. B D- D- A+ C+ 52% 19% 29% B C+ C+ C- C+ A F+ F+ F D+ D F+ D F+ 38% 23% 40% D- F+ A+ C+ A F+ D+ F F+
1.18 52% 33% 50% +3 +1 1.10 30% 1.2 .37 13% .29 69% .20 1.13 67% 45% 37% +7 0 1.15 15% 1.0 .15 13% .29 88% .26
Jan
29		 UC San Diego D F F A C- 24% 24% 51% D- D+ F+ B- D D A C A A+ B- A+ D- B+ 57% 12% 31% F+ B C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B
0.95 36% 27% 39% -4 -2 0.91 21% 1.1 .24 18% .37 70% .26 0.73 54% 0% 38% -5 +2 0.98 26% 0.0 .00 29% .26 58% .15
Jan
31		 Cal St. Fullerton C+ A+ A+ D+ B+ 38% 9% 53% B B+ B F D D- C- A+ B- B F A+ D+ C 31% 25% 43% A- C+ A+ F C A B- B B
1.13 75% 60% 32% +7 +1 1.19 34% 0.7 .25 22% .30 82% .24 0.94 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.6 .24 20% .31 67% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 UC Davis B D+ A+ B+ C 68% 2% 30% A+ B- A F C+ D+ A- B A F F+ A+ F F 50% 14% 36% F F C- A+ A+ D F F F
1.16 53% 100% 38% 0 +5 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 20% .41 76% .31 1.31 68% 17% 56% +14 +2 1.34 28% 0.4 .12 15% .48 88% .42
Feb
7		 UC Irvine A A A+ D- A+ 36% 28% 36% D+ A+ B+ B- B+ D A+ B A+ D F B- F+ F 36% 41% 23% A+ F+ A A A D+ A F C+
1.18 65% 69% 29% +9 -1 1.17 39% 0.9 .36 20% .44 76% .33 1.11 75% 35% 38% +6 -3 1.09 23% 0.9 .19 15% .22 92% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.5 7.0 2.8 13.6 1st
2nd 0.3 5.3 13.6 5.7 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.7 9.2 20.5 11.7 0.7 42.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 6.8 2.3 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 1.3 0.1 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.5 7.2 17.6 28.4 28.9 13.4 2.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 2.8    2.1 0.7 0.0
15-5 52.5% 7.0    2.5 3.5 1.0 0.0
14-6 12.1% 3.5    0.3 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 4.9 5.9 2.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.8% 36.4% 36.4% 12.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.8
15-5 13.4% 28.5% 28.5% 13.0 0.7 2.3 0.8 9.6
14-6 28.9% 19.6% 19.6% 13.2 0.6 3.2 1.8 0.1 23.2
13-7 28.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.6 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.2 24.6
12-8 17.6% 8.1% 8.1% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 16.2
11-9 7.2% 5.7% 5.7% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.8
10-10 1.5% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.5
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 13.3 83.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 12.3 5.9 59.8 33.3 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%