Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#106
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#98
Pace67.2#249
Improvement+1.0#114

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#114
First Shot+3.0#96
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#222
Layup/Dunks-2.0#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#315
Freethrows+5.8#4
Improvement-0.4#217

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#108
First Shot+3.3#73
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#271
Layups/Dunks+3.4#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
Freethrows-1.7#276
Improvement+1.5#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.6% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.2 11.7
.500 or above 75.4% 84.3% 64.6%
.500 or above in Conference 60.5% 65.3% 54.7%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.8% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.2%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round4.3% 5.3% 3.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 23 - 54 - 9
Quad 39 - 412 - 13
Quad 46 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 193 Louisiana Tech W 77-50 81%     1 - 0 +21.9 +13.3 +11.8
  Sat, Nov 8 137 Pacific W 78-77 71%     2 - 0 -0.3 +8.1 -8.3
  Wed, Nov 12 143 Southern Illinois W 86-81 OT 72%     3 - 0 +3.2 +2.4 +0.2
  Sat, Nov 15 75 @Santa Clara L 83-98 27%     3 - 1 -4.4 +13.6 -17.8
  Tue, Nov 18 170 UC Davis L 71-75 79%     3 - 2 -8.0 -6.1 -1.6
  Sat, Nov 22 141 UC Santa Barbara W 77-64 72%     4 - 2 +11.3 +1.7 +9.9
  Thu, Nov 27 49 Washington L 66-83 27%     4 - 3 -6.4 -4.0 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 28 100 San Francisco W 81-65 47%     5 - 3 +21.0 +17.9 +4.6
  Tue, Dec 2 103 UC San Diego W 76-70 60%     6 - 3 +7.7 +8.7 -0.4
  Sun, Dec 7 151 @Washington St. W 76-75 55%    
  Sat, Dec 13 133 Duquesne W 80-74 70%    
  Sat, Dec 20 52 Boise St. L 67-70 39%    
  Tue, Dec 30 72 @Colorado St. L 70-77 27%    
  Sat, Jan 3 183 @Fresno St. W 75-72 61%    
  Tue, Jan 6 56 San Diego St. L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 107 Wyoming W 75-72 61%    
  Wed, Jan 14 51 @Utah St. L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 331 @Air Force W 74-62 85%    
  Tue, Jan 20 182 San Jose St. W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 84 @New Mexico L 74-79 33%    
  Tue, Jan 27 99 Grand Canyon W 72-70 57%    
  Fri, Jan 30 132 UNLV W 82-77 69%    
  Tue, Feb 3 52 @Boise St. L 64-73 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 183 Fresno St. W 78-69 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 56 @San Diego St. L 68-77 22%    
  Tue, Feb 17 182 @San Jose St. W 72-69 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 51 Utah St. L 72-75 39%    
  Tue, Feb 24 84 New Mexico W 77-76 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 132 @UNLV L 79-80 48%    
  Tue, Mar 3 107 @Wyoming L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 331 Air Force W 77-59 94%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 4.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.3 4.1 0.7 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.4 4.9 0.9 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 5.3 5.0 1.2 0.1 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.6 4.6 1.4 0.1 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 3.5 1.0 0.1 9.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.8 7.6 10.3 12.8 13.7 13.3 11.6 9.2 6.1 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 98.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 90.7% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 64.6% 1.2    0.7 0.5 0.1
15-5 33.2% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 72.7% 13.6% 59.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.4%
18-2 0.3% 55.0% 22.5% 32.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 41.9%
17-3 0.7% 33.8% 22.1% 11.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 15.1%
16-4 1.9% 21.4% 16.1% 5.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.5 6.3%
15-5 3.7% 14.9% 13.5% 1.4% 11.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.1 1.7%
14-6 6.1% 11.5% 11.0% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 5.4 0.6%
13-7 9.2% 8.0% 7.8% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.4 0.2%
12-8 11.6% 5.0% 5.0% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.0
11-9 13.3% 3.7% 3.7% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.8
10-10 13.7% 2.0% 2.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.4
9-11 12.8% 1.2% 1.2% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.6
8-12 10.3% 0.5% 0.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2
7-13 7.6% 0.6% 0.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
6-14 4.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 4.8
5-15 2.5% 2.5
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 4.4% 4.0% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 95.6 0.4%