Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#46
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#22
Pace65.4#299
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#56
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 1.6% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 5.3% 6.2% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 11.1% 12.7% 4.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.1% 46.6% 28.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.6% 33.9% 18.2%
Average Seed 8.4 8.3 9.2
.500 or above 97.4% 98.5% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 93.5% 86.8%
Conference Champion 22.9% 24.6% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four7.6% 8.0% 5.9%
First Round39.4% 42.8% 25.6%
Second Round21.2% 23.3% 12.2%
Sweet Sixteen8.0% 8.9% 4.1%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.5% 1.4%
Final Four1.1% 1.3% 0.4%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Home) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 25 - 36 - 6
Quad 38 - 214 - 8
Quad 48 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 123   Sam Houston St. W 91-75 83%     1 - 0 +15.9 +19.1 -2.9
  Nov 09, 2024 79   Washington W 63-53 71%     2 - 0 +14.3 -1.8 +16.8
  Nov 13, 2024 233   Weber St. W 88-58 93%     3 - 0 +23.6 +19.5 +6.8
  Nov 16, 2024 111   Santa Clara W 77-68 80%    
  Nov 21, 2024 83   Vanderbilt W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 02, 2024 75   Washington St. W 76-71 69%    
  Dec 07, 2024 164   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-64 73%    
  Dec 11, 2024 166   South Dakota St. W 77-64 88%    
  Dec 14, 2024 257   Texas Southern W 77-59 95%    
  Dec 21, 2024 91   Colorado St. W 71-64 74%    
  Dec 28, 2024 196   @ Wyoming W 74-65 79%    
  Dec 31, 2024 43   Utah St. W 74-72 59%    
  Jan 03, 2025 56   @ New Mexico L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 234   @ Fresno St. W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 14, 2025 286   Air Force W 75-55 96%    
  Jan 18, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 77-60 93%    
  Jan 22, 2025 43   @ Utah St. L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 25, 2025 55   San Diego St. W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 47   @ Boise St. L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 94   UNLV W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 04, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 72-58 88%    
  Feb 11, 2025 234   Fresno St. W 80-64 92%    
  Feb 14, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. W 74-63 83%    
  Feb 18, 2025 91   @ Colorado St. W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 47   Boise St. W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 25, 2025 196   Wyoming W 77-62 90%    
  Feb 28, 2025 94   @ UNLV W 70-68 55%    
  Mar 04, 2025 56   New Mexico W 81-77 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 55   @ San Diego St. L 64-66 43%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.6 6.7 5.0 2.3 0.6 22.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 4.1 6.9 5.1 1.5 0.2 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.8 6.7 3.6 0.6 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.5 5.8 2.4 0.3 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.6 4.2 1.6 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 2.5 0.9 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.9 6.1 7.8 10.7 13.0 13.8 13.0 11.3 8.2 5.3 2.3 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.1
18-2 95.3% 5.0    4.5 0.5
17-3 81.0% 6.7    4.7 1.8 0.1
16-4 49.3% 5.6    2.5 2.4 0.6 0.0
15-5 17.3% 2.3    0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 15.1 6.0 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 99.4% 60.9% 38.5% 2.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
19-1 2.3% 99.4% 53.9% 45.5% 3.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
18-2 5.3% 97.3% 43.9% 53.4% 5.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.1%
17-3 8.2% 92.4% 37.2% 55.2% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.6 87.9%
16-4 11.3% 79.7% 28.1% 51.5% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 71.7%
15-5 13.0% 60.5% 21.4% 39.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 5.2 49.8%
14-6 13.8% 39.5% 14.4% 25.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.3 29.4%
13-7 13.0% 21.9% 10.5% 11.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 10.2 12.7%
12-8 10.7% 12.3% 7.7% 4.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 9.4 5.0%
11-9 7.8% 7.4% 6.1% 1.3% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 7.2 1.4%
10-10 6.1% 3.4% 3.2% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.9 0.2%
9-11 3.9% 2.0% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.8
8-12 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
7-13 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.1% 17.9% 25.1% 8.4 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.5 4.9 6.5 10.9 2.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 56.9 30.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 50.0 24.0 18.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 23.8 38.1 23.8 14.3