Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#54
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#73
Pace63.0#324
Improvement-3.2#338

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#47
First Shot+7.0#29
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#260
Layup/Dunks+1.0#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#115
Freethrows+1.2#104
Improvement-0.4#213

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#73
First Shot+3.6#77
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#133
Layups/Dunks+3.5#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
Freethrows+1.5#80
Improvement-2.8#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 2.5% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.2% 32.8% 20.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.9% 15.8% 7.1%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 10.5
.500 or above 99.3% 99.7% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 97.2% 88.3%
Conference Champion 23.2% 26.5% 10.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.8% 5.2% 3.1%
First Round27.9% 30.3% 18.5%
Second Round12.2% 13.5% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 4.1% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Home) - 79.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 25 - 47 - 7
Quad 39 - 316 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 128   Sam Houston St. W 91-75 85%     1 - 0 +15.0 +17.3 -2.0
  Nov 09, 2024 96   Washington W 63-53 76%     2 - 0 +12.6 -2.9 +16.1
  Nov 13, 2024 208   Weber St. W 88-58 92%     3 - 0 +24.6 +18.9 +8.4
  Nov 16, 2024 78   Santa Clara W 85-59 71%     4 - 0 +30.1 +19.5 +12.4
  Nov 21, 2024 57   Vanderbilt L 71-73 52%     4 - 1 +7.4 +3.2 +4.2
  Nov 22, 2024 55   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-61 51%     5 - 1 +12.8 +8.2 +5.1
  Nov 24, 2024 85   Oklahoma St. W 90-78 63%     6 - 1 +18.4 +21.3 -2.8
  Dec 02, 2024 68   Washington St. L 57-68 68%     6 - 2 -6.0 -11.0 +4.7
  Dec 07, 2024 189   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-68 78%     6 - 3 -2.4 +1.3 -4.2
  Dec 11, 2024 123   South Dakota St. W 77-63 84%     7 - 3 +13.5 +16.6 -0.8
  Dec 14, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 105-73 96%     8 - 3 +21.5 +23.9 -3.4
  Dec 21, 2024 108   Colorado St. W 72-63 79%    
  Dec 28, 2024 187   @ Wyoming W 72-64 78%    
  Dec 31, 2024 47   Utah St. W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 03, 2025 71   @ New Mexico L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 256   @ Fresno St. W 78-66 87%    
  Jan 14, 2025 267   Air Force W 74-55 96%    
  Jan 18, 2025 185   San Jose St. W 76-62 90%    
  Jan 22, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 45   San Diego St. W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 29, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 113   UNLV W 73-64 81%    
  Feb 04, 2025 267   @ Air Force W 71-58 87%    
  Feb 11, 2025 256   Fresno St. W 81-63 95%    
  Feb 14, 2025 185   @ San Jose St. W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 18, 2025 108   @ Colorado St. W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 58   Boise St. W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 25, 2025 187   Wyoming W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 28, 2025 113   @ UNLV W 70-67 62%    
  Mar 04, 2025 71   New Mexico W 79-74 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 45   @ San Diego St. L 65-69 36%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.7 6.9 4.1 1.6 0.2 23.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.7 8.2 5.3 1.4 0.1 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.4 7.7 3.5 0.5 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 6.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 4.3 1.5 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 2.2 0.7 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.7 7.7 11.4 14.1 15.6 15.1 12.4 8.2 4.3 1.6 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 96.6% 4.1    3.7 0.4
17-3 83.5% 6.9    4.9 1.8 0.1
16-4 53.5% 6.7    3.0 2.9 0.7 0.0
15-5 20.8% 3.1    0.7 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 14.3 6.8 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.6% 95.3% 44.0% 51.3% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 91.6%
18-2 4.3% 86.9% 37.9% 48.9% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.6 78.9%
17-3 8.2% 70.4% 34.2% 36.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.0 2.4 55.1%
16-4 12.4% 50.8% 29.2% 21.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.8 0.2 6.1 30.5%
15-5 15.1% 34.3% 23.4% 10.9% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.3 0.3 9.9 14.2%
14-6 15.6% 21.3% 17.1% 4.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 0.4 12.3 5.1%
13-7 14.1% 14.0% 12.6% 1.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.4 0.4 12.1 1.6%
12-8 11.4% 10.6% 10.3% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 10.2 0.4%
11-9 7.7% 7.6% 7.4% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 7.1 0.1%
10-10 4.7% 5.3% 5.3% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.5
9-11 2.6% 3.1% 3.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5
8-12 1.2% 2.6% 2.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
7-13 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.2% 19.0% 11.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.1 3.5 6.1 12.7 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.8 13.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 8.5 30.5 33.9 23.7 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.5 18.5 40.7 29.6 3.7 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.9 3.7 7.4 11.1 14.8 18.5 25.9 14.8 3.7