South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#123
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#141
Pace69.7#161
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#130
First Shot-0.5#183
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#76
Layup/Dunks-0.6#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#149
Freethrows-0.2#191
Improvement-0.7#246

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#142
First Shot-2.5#259
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#8
Layups/Dunks+3.5#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#334
Freethrows+1.1#107
Improvement+0.3#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.9% 41.0% 31.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 12.7 13.6
.500 or above 94.7% 98.7% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 98.2% 96.1%
Conference Champion 43.9% 54.9% 43.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round31.8% 41.0% 31.5%
Second Round3.3% 5.2% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 415 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 92   McNeese St. W 80-73 37%     1 - 0 +13.0 +6.0 +6.6
  Nov 08, 2024 272   Long Beach St. W 80-79 86%     2 - 0 -7.9 +2.6 -10.5
  Nov 14, 2024 192   Northern Colorado L 69-78 65%     2 - 1 -10.5 -6.6 -3.8
  Nov 20, 2024 282   Southern Miss W 101-76 86%     3 - 1 +15.6 +7.5 +3.7
  Nov 24, 2024 198   Duquesne W 71-60 66%     4 - 1 +9.3 +4.1 +5.9
  Nov 25, 2024 58   Boise St. L 82-83 26%     4 - 2 +8.3 +13.8 -5.5
  Nov 26, 2024 191   Missouri St. W 75-55 65%     5 - 2 +18.5 +7.5 +12.3
  Dec 04, 2024 212   @ Montana L 67-71 58%     5 - 3 -3.5 -9.6 +6.2
  Dec 07, 2024 251   Eastern Washington W 74-53 84%     6 - 3 +12.9 -3.1 +16.8
  Dec 11, 2024 54   @ Nevada L 63-77 16%     6 - 4 -1.1 +6.5 -10.0
  Dec 13, 2024 73   @ Colorado L 70-81 22%     6 - 5 -0.5 +8.8 -10.2
  Dec 29, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 72-91 4%    
  Jan 02, 2025 325   Denver W 81-66 91%    
  Jan 08, 2025 143   @ St. Thomas L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 294   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 302   North Dakota W 82-69 89%    
  Jan 18, 2025 293   Oral Roberts W 81-69 87%    
  Jan 23, 2025 271   @ UMKC W 73-68 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 228   South Dakota W 87-78 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 131   @ North Dakota St. L 73-75 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 302   @ North Dakota W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 06, 2025 143   St. Thomas W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 294   Nebraska Omaha W 79-67 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 228   @ South Dakota W 84-81 61%    
  Feb 19, 2025 131   North Dakota St. W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 23, 2025 271   UMKC W 76-65 84%    
  Feb 27, 2025 293   @ Oral Roberts W 78-72 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 325   @ Denver W 78-69 78%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 8.8 13.5 11.1 5.9 1.6 43.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.9 9.1 8.5 3.8 0.5 26.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.6 4.4 1.0 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.5 0.2 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 3.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.6 8.0 12.4 16.4 18.3 17.3 11.6 5.9 1.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
15-1 100.0% 5.9    5.8 0.1
14-2 95.4% 11.1    9.6 1.5 0.0
13-3 77.9% 13.5    9.1 4.1 0.3
12-4 48.1% 8.8    3.8 4.1 0.9 0.0
11-5 16.4% 2.7    0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 43.9% 43.9 30.5 11.2 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.6% 58.3% 58.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.7
15-1 5.9% 53.7% 53.7% 12.5 0.1 1.5 1.4 0.2 2.7
14-2 11.6% 45.4% 45.4% 12.9 0.0 1.3 2.9 1.0 0.0 6.4
13-3 17.3% 39.9% 39.9% 13.3 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.4
12-4 18.3% 32.8% 32.8% 13.7 0.2 2.1 3.0 0.7 0.0 12.3
11-5 16.4% 27.1% 27.1% 14.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.1 0.0 11.9
10-6 12.4% 21.9% 21.9% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.1 9.7
9-7 8.0% 17.6% 17.6% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 6.6
8-8 4.6% 14.3% 14.3% 15.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 4.0
7-9 2.3% 10.8% 10.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 2.1
6-10 1.0% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.1 0.9
5-11 0.4% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 31.9% 31.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.4 11.3 10.7 4.6 0.7 68.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.7 2.6 7.9 5.3 7.9 50.0 23.7 2.6