UMKC
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#271
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#321
Pace66.5#251
Improvement+0.3#160

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#281
First Shot-5.3#326
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#97
Layup/Dunks-12.0#364
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#19
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement+2.4#28

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#237
First Shot-1.2#207
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#266
Layups/Dunks-3.3#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement-2.1#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 5.2% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 7.9% 19.4% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 39.4% 50.9% 38.2%
Conference Champion 2.6% 4.8% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 9.0% 15.2%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
First Round2.4% 4.4% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 9.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 48 - 810 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 5   @ Iowa St. L 56-82 1%     0 - 1 -3.5 -3.7 -1.3
  Nov 16, 2024 36   @ Creighton L 56-79 4%     0 - 2 -7.9 -9.3 +1.5
  Nov 22, 2024 237   American L 60-64 43%     0 - 3 -8.0 -12.6 +4.4
  Nov 23, 2024 248   Albany L 65-67 46%     0 - 4 -6.8 -5.6 -1.5
  Nov 30, 2024 297   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 59-80 43%     0 - 5 -25.2 -18.8 -4.4
  Dec 04, 2024 291   Idaho L 77-82 65%     0 - 6 -14.8 -1.2 -13.8
  Dec 07, 2024 139   @ Montana St. L 62-74 17%     0 - 7 -7.9 -1.4 -7.9
  Dec 10, 2024 312   @ Portland W 69-64 47%     1 - 7 -0.3 -1.2 +1.3
  Dec 14, 2024 265   Bowling Green W 85-77 61%     2 - 7 -0.7 +11.0 -11.3
  Dec 17, 2024 100   @ Wichita St. L 65-79 10%    
  Dec 21, 2024 147   East Tennessee St. L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 02, 2025 228   South Dakota W 80-79 53%    
  Jan 04, 2025 293   Oral Roberts W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 08, 2025 294   @ Nebraska Omaha L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 16, 2025 131   @ North Dakota St. L 66-77 16%    
  Jan 18, 2025 302   @ North Dakota L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 23, 2025 123   South Dakota St. L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 143   St. Thomas L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 30, 2025 325   @ Denver W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 293   @ Oral Roberts L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 06, 2025 131   North Dakota St. L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 302   North Dakota W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 13, 2025 228   @ South Dakota L 77-82 32%    
  Feb 19, 2025 294   Nebraska Omaha W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 23, 2025 123   @ South Dakota St. L 65-76 16%    
  Feb 27, 2025 325   Denver W 74-68 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 143   @ St. Thomas L 67-77 20%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.8 1.3 0.1 9.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.8 5.6 1.6 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 7.4 6.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 7.2 5.9 1.1 0.0 16.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 6.2 5.1 0.9 0.0 14.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.7 3.8 0.8 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.2 9th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.3 5.0 8.7 12.5 15.3 15.8 13.8 10.8 7.4 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 98.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 78.5% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
12-4 44.5% 0.9    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 14.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.2% 18.6% 18.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-3 0.8% 16.6% 16.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-4 2.1% 14.6% 14.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.8
11-5 4.2% 10.9% 10.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.8
10-6 7.4% 8.1% 8.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.8
9-7 10.8% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.2
8-8 13.8% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 13.4
7-9 15.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 15.4
6-10 15.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 15.1
5-11 12.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.4
4-12 8.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.7
3-13 5.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.0
2-14 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
1-15 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%