North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#222
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#256
Pace64.7#312
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#330
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 15.0% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 46.9% 65.0% 40.1%
.500 or above in Conference 62.1% 71.3% 58.7%
Conference Champion 13.2% 18.6% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.6% 5.4% 9.9%
First Four2.3% 1.8% 2.5%
First Round10.2% 14.0% 8.8%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 27.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 33 - 74 - 9
Quad 410 - 614 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 173   Illinois St. L 68-77 52%     0 - 1 -12.7 -0.7 -12.7
  Nov 11, 2024 261   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-86 46%     0 - 2 -7.2 +14.6 -22.2
  Nov 13, 2024 111   @ Santa Clara W 88-80 OT 18%     1 - 2 +14.9 +9.6 +4.6
  Nov 18, 2024 161   @ Southern Illinois L 66-73 27%    
  Nov 26, 2024 141   @ Samford L 76-83 25%    
  Nov 27, 2024 349   West Georgia W 78-68 81%    
  Nov 28, 2024 124   Utah Valley L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 04, 2024 233   @ Weber St. L 69-72 40%    
  Dec 07, 2024 192   Northern Colorado W 77-75 56%    
  Dec 10, 2024 93   @ Butler L 68-80 15%    
  Dec 15, 2024 311   Western Michigan W 77-69 76%    
  Dec 23, 2024 261   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 02, 2025 169   St. Thomas W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 266   Nebraska Omaha W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 09, 2025 245   @ Oral Roberts L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 309   @ Denver W 78-76 55%    
  Jan 16, 2025 205   UMKC W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 252   @ South Dakota L 76-78 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 271   North Dakota W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 166   South Dakota St. L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 169   @ St. Thomas L 71-77 32%    
  Feb 06, 2025 205   @ UMKC L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 266   @ Nebraska Omaha L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 245   Oral Roberts W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 309   Denver W 81-73 74%    
  Feb 19, 2025 166   @ South Dakota St. L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 271   @ North Dakota L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 26, 2025 252   South Dakota W 79-75 64%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.7 3.5 2.1 0.9 0.2 13.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.3 5.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.1 5.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.3 5.3 1.5 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.7 5.7 1.4 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.1 1.2 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.2 1.3 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.9 0.9 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 4.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.7 7.2 9.7 12.0 13.4 13.0 12.0 9.4 6.9 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
14-2 95.9% 2.1    1.9 0.1 0.0
13-3 81.6% 3.5    2.6 0.9 0.1
12-4 53.8% 3.7    1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0
11-5 24.5% 2.3    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 8.1 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 56.5% 54.3% 2.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8%
15-1 0.9% 46.9% 46.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-2 2.2% 40.1% 40.1% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-3 4.3% 29.3% 29.3% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.1
12-4 6.9% 25.0% 25.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 5.2
11-5 9.4% 20.4% 20.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 7.5
10-6 12.0% 13.4% 13.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 10.4
9-7 13.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 11.7
8-8 13.4% 7.4% 7.4% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 12.4
7-9 12.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.6 11.4
6-10 9.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.4
5-11 7.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.1
4-12 4.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-13 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-14 1.1% 1.1
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.3 3.5 4.0 88.7 0.0%