IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.7	#173
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.2	#196

Pace	63.1	#337
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.8	#190

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.1	#165

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.8%	7.1%	3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.3	13.0	13.6

.500 or above	51.5%	69.2%	44.1%
.500 or above in Conference	47.3%	58.1%	42.8%
Conference Champion	4.2%	6.4%	3.3%
Last Place in Conference	8.3%	4.9%	9.8%

First Four	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
First Round	4.7%	7.0%	3.8%
Second Round	0.5%	0.9%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Neutral) - 29.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	6 - 7	7 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 4	15 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	314	Tennessee Martin	L	65-67	84%	0 - 1			-13.4	-19.1	+5.8
Nov 07, 2024	222	@ North Dakota St.	W	77-68	48%	1 - 1			+8.9	+7.0	+2.7
Nov 12, 2024	158	Ohio	W	85-75	57%	2 - 1			+7.5	+15.2	-6.8
Nov 22, 2024	99	McNeese St.	L	63-69	30%
Dec 04, 2024	151	@ Belmont	L	69-74	34%
Dec 07, 2024	284	Pacific	W	74-65	79%
Dec 15, 2024	102	Saint Louis	L	71-74	41%
Dec 18, 2024	294	Northern Illinois	W	73-64	80%
Dec 22, 2024	183	@ Cornell	L	73-75	42%
Dec 29, 2024	162	Illinois-Chicago	W	72-70	57%
Jan 02, 2025	136	@ Murray St.	L	63-68	33%
Jan 05, 2025	161	Southern Illinois	W	66-64	57%
Jan 08, 2025	248	@ Evansville	W	69-68	52%
Jan 11, 2025	128	Northern Iowa	L	67-68	49%
Jan 15, 2025	98	@ Drake	L	62-71	22%
Jan 18, 2025	195	Missouri St.	W	69-65	64%
Jan 21, 2025	207	Indiana St.	W	74-69	66%
Jan 25, 2025	90	@ Bradley	L	63-72	20%
Jan 29, 2025	151	Belmont	W	72-71	55%
Feb 01, 2025	278	Valparaiso	W	73-65	77%
Feb 05, 2025	162	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	69-73	37%
Feb 08, 2025	128	@ Northern Iowa	L	64-70	30%
Feb 12, 2025	98	Drake	L	65-68	41%
Feb 15, 2025	207	@ Indiana St.	L	71-72	46%
Feb 19, 2025	90	Bradley	L	66-69	39%
Feb 22, 2025	195	@ Missouri St.	L	66-68	44%
Feb 25, 2025	161	@ Southern Illinois	L	63-67	37%
Mar 02, 2025	248	Evansville	W	72-65	71%
Projected Record						14 - 14	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.6	1.1	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0		4.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.3	2.2	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0				6.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	2.2	3.1	1.7	0.4	0.0						7.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.5	2.5	3.7	1.6	0.2	0.0	0.0						8.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.7	4.4	2.1	0.3	0.0								9.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.3	4.7	2.4	0.2	0.0									9.9	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.3	4.7	2.8	0.4	0.0										10.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.3	2.1	4.9	3.0	0.6	0.0											10.9	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	1.9	4.3	2.8	0.6	0.0												9.9	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.5	2.0	3.6	2.5	0.6	0.0													9.2	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.8	2.0	2.8	1.8	0.4	0.0														7.9	11th
12th	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.4	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.0															4.8	12th

Total	0.1	0.3	1.0	2.2	3.8	5.8	7.8	9.6	10.9	11.2	11.2	10.3	8.5	6.4	4.7	3.1	1.8	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
18-2	96.3%	0.3		0.3	0.0
17-3	89.4%	0.8		0.6	0.2	0.0
16-4	64.6%	1.2		0.7	0.4	0.0	0.0
15-5	34.4%	1.1		0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0
14-6	12.0%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	2.4%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	4.2%	4.2		2.3	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%										0.0				0.0									0.0
19-1	0.1%		38.7%	22.6%	16.1%	10.5						0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1		20.8%
18-2	0.4%		38.3%	37.4%	0.9%	11.7												0.0	0.1	0.0				0.2		1.5%
17-3	0.8%		24.0%	23.6%	0.4%	12.1												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.6		0.5%
16-4	1.8%		25.8%	25.6%	0.2%	12.4												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0			1.3		0.2%
15-5	3.1%		18.5%	18.5%		12.7												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1			2.6
14-6	4.7%		16.0%	16.0%		13.1												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.0		3.9
13-7	6.4%		12.2%	12.2%		13.3													0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	5.6
12-8	8.5%		8.2%	8.2%		13.6													0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	7.8
11-9	10.3%		4.3%	4.3%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1		9.8
10-10	11.2%		2.3%	2.3%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	11.0
9-11	11.2%		1.7%	1.7%		14.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	11.0
8-12	10.9%		1.3%	1.3%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	10.8
7-13	9.6%		0.6%	0.6%		15.9																0.0	0.1	9.5
6-14	7.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	7.8
5-15	5.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.8
4-16	3.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
3-17	2.2%																							2.2
2-18	1.0%																							1.0
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		4.8%	4.8%	0.0%	13.3					0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	1.0	1.7	1.3	0.5	0.2	95.2		0.0%