Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#227
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#250
Pace69.1#172
Improvement+4.5#10

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#175
First Shot-4.3#305
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#12
Layup/Dunks-3.5#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#265
Freethrows+2.3#58
Improvement+1.8#47

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#283
First Shot-2.4#255
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#262
Layups/Dunks-3.1#290
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#80
Freethrows-0.4#223
Improvement+2.7#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.7% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 15.6% 37.7% 14.6%
.500 or above in Conference 16.9% 28.7% 16.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 24.2% 15.1% 24.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.6% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 4.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 33 - 74 - 15
Quad 48 - 412 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 77   Liberty L 63-83 16%     0 - 1 -12.9 -2.7 -10.9
  Nov 12, 2024 241   Cleveland St. L 67-75 64%     0 - 2 -15.2 -5.1 -10.3
  Nov 21, 2024 347   Lindenwood W 77-64 85%     1 - 2 -1.8 -4.7 +2.5
  Nov 24, 2024 322   Eastern Illinois W 81-53 79%     2 - 2 +15.9 +15.4 +4.3
  Nov 27, 2024 344   Northern Illinois W 87-82 85%     3 - 2 -9.4 +2.9 -12.6
  Nov 29, 2024 88   @ DePaul L 70-89 12%     3 - 3 -9.9 +3.2 -13.6
  Dec 05, 2024 70   Drake L 60-66 21%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -1.1 +0.0 -2.0
  Dec 14, 2024 219   Central Michigan W 93-77 59%     4 - 4 +10.2 +8.8 -0.5
  Dec 17, 2024 39   @ Ohio St. L 65-83 4%    
  Dec 20, 2024 295   @ Western Michigan W 75-74 52%    
  Dec 29, 2024 76   @ Bradley L 68-82 10%    
  Jan 01, 2025 191   @ Missouri St. L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 99   Northern Iowa L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 08, 2025 168   Indiana St. W 82-81 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 116   @ Murray St. L 66-76 19%    
  Jan 14, 2025 129   @ Belmont L 77-85 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 215   Illinois-Chicago W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 22, 2025 70   @ Drake L 61-75 10%    
  Jan 25, 2025 268   Evansville W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 28, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 160   @ Illinois St. L 69-75 28%    
  Feb 05, 2025 168   @ Indiana St. L 78-84 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 116   Murray St. L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 12, 2025 129   Belmont L 80-82 41%    
  Feb 16, 2025 268   @ Evansville L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 191   Missouri St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 76   Bradley L 71-79 25%    
  Mar 02, 2025 215   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-77 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.1 1.0 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.1 1.6 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 13.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.6 3.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 15.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 6.3 3.3 0.6 0.0 16.7 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 3.1 4.8 4.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 15.8 12th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.2 6.5 9.7 12.5 14.0 13.9 12.1 9.7 7.3 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 60.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 38.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 25.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 10.5% 10.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.6% 10.8% 10.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.4% 7.4% 7.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
12-8 2.7% 3.7% 3.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
11-9 4.7% 2.4% 2.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5
10-10 7.3% 1.1% 1.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2
9-11 9.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.6
8-12 12.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
7-13 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 13.9
6-14 14.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.0
5-15 12.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.5
4-16 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
3-17 6.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.5
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%