Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#238
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#233
Pace69.2#145
Improvement-1.8#270

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#187
First Shot-3.1#271
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#35
Layup/Dunks-3.0#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#258
Freethrows+2.0#68
Improvement-1.4#253

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#288
First Shot-2.5#257
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#291
Layups/Dunks-4.8#336
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#44
Freethrows-0.2#199
Improvement-0.4#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.0% 1.2%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 28.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 60 - 8
Quad 33 - 74 - 15
Quad 48 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 77   Liberty L 63-83 14%     0 - 1 -12.6 -1.6 -11.7
  Nov 12, 2024 170   Cleveland St. L 67-75 45%     0 - 2 -11.0 -3.7 -7.5
  Nov 21, 2024 335   Lindenwood W 77-64 81%     1 - 2 -0.5 -2.3 +1.3
  Nov 24, 2024 338   Eastern Illinois W 81-53 82%     2 - 2 +14.0 +16.6 +1.2
  Nov 27, 2024 341   Northern Illinois W 87-82 83%     3 - 2 -9.4 +3.9 -13.6
  Nov 29, 2024 120   @ DePaul L 70-89 19%     3 - 3 -13.9 +1.9 -16.3
  Dec 05, 2024 74   Drake L 60-66 19%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -0.8 -1.8 +0.1
  Dec 14, 2024 215   Central Michigan W 93-77 54%     4 - 4 +10.7 +6.7 +2.2
  Dec 17, 2024 33   @ Ohio St. L 73-95 4%     4 - 5 -5.8 +3.4 -7.7
  Dec 20, 2024 302   @ Western Michigan W 76-73 55%     5 - 5 -2.4 +0.7 -3.1
  Dec 29, 2024 94   @ Bradley L 75-81 2OT 14%     5 - 6 0 - 2 +1.7 -2.0 +4.3
  Jan 01, 2025 219   @ Missouri St. W 73-72 36%     6 - 6 1 - 2 +0.4 +13.3 -12.8
  Jan 04, 2025 100   Northern Iowa W 80-73 27%     7 - 6 2 - 2 +9.1 +9.8 -0.6
  Jan 08, 2025 203   Indiana St. W 98-95 OT 52%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -1.8 +4.5 -6.7
  Jan 11, 2025 156   @ Murray St. L 47-58 24%     8 - 7 3 - 3 -8.0 -18.1 +8.9
  Jan 14, 2025 140   @ Belmont L 64-71 23%     8 - 8 3 - 4 -3.3 -15.4 +12.5
  Jan 18, 2025 147   Illinois-Chicago L 74-81 41%     8 - 9 3 - 5 -8.8 -0.3 -8.6
  Jan 22, 2025 74   @ Drake L 71-81 9%     8 - 10 3 - 6 +0.3 +10.5 -11.3
  Jan 25, 2025 237   Evansville L 68-78 59%     8 - 11 3 - 7 -16.6 -8.7 -7.4
  Jan 28, 2025 179   Southern Illinois L 75-79 47%     8 - 12 3 - 8 -7.5 +1.5 -9.1
  Feb 01, 2025 127   @ Illinois St. L 78-86 21%     8 - 13 3 - 9 -3.7 +12.1 -16.7
  Feb 05, 2025 203   @ Indiana St. L 62-80 33%     8 - 14 3 - 10 -17.7 -10.4 -7.9
  Feb 08, 2025 156   Murray St. L 56-74 42%     8 - 15 3 - 11 -20.1 -12.1 -9.5
  Feb 12, 2025 140   Belmont W 101-86 39%     9 - 15 4 - 11 +13.6 +21.7 -8.3
  Feb 16, 2025 237   @ Evansville L 69-79 40%     9 - 16 4 - 12 -11.5 +0.9 -12.8
  Feb 19, 2025 219   Missouri St. W 66-64 56%     10 - 16 5 - 12 -3.7 -1.3 -2.2
  Feb 22, 2025 179   @ Southern Illinois L 71-77 28%    
  Feb 26, 2025 94   Bradley L 70-77 28%    
  Mar 02, 2025 147   @ Illinois-Chicago L 74-81 22%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.9 0.9 8th
9th 0.8 0.8 9th
10th 6.4 0.3 6.7 10th
11th 41.3 41.6 8.8 0.0 91.6 11th
12th 12th
Total 41.3 41.6 15.2 2.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 2.0
7-13 15.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.1
6-14 41.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 41.5
5-15 41.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 41.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 29.6%