Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#104
Expected Predictive Rating+13.9#25
Pace62.6#345
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#118
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#95
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 2.0% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 26.8% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 4.1% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.6 11.0 12.1
.500 or above 88.7% 95.5% 84.4%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 88.6% 79.1%
Conference Champion 26.2% 33.1% 21.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.8% 2.3%
First Four1.0% 1.6% 0.5%
First Round20.9% 26.0% 17.6%
Second Round5.6% 8.4% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.6% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Neutral) - 39.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 37 - 49 - 8
Quad 49 - 119 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 278   Valparaiso W 83-63 85%     1 - 0 +13.9 +9.7 +4.9
  Nov 09, 2024 152   @ Seattle W 66-64 54%     2 - 0 +5.9 +0.7 +5.4
  Nov 16, 2024 74   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 39%    
  Nov 17, 2024 100   @ College of Charleston L 74-77 38%    
  Nov 22, 2024 188   Louisiana W 71-65 72%    
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 77-49 99%    
  Dec 14, 2024 300   N.C. A&T W 79-64 91%    
  Dec 21, 2024 160   Texas Arlington W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 02, 2025 118   Western Kentucky W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 04, 2025 129   Middle Tennessee W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 123   @ Sam Houston St. L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 92   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 16, 2025 194   UTEP W 73-63 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 147   New Mexico St. W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 267   @ Florida International W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 30, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 210   @ Jacksonville St. W 68-63 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 92   Louisiana Tech W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 123   Sam Houston St. W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 147   @ New Mexico St. W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 194   @ UTEP W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 267   Florida International W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 27, 2025 210   Jacksonville St. W 71-60 82%    
  Mar 02, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 81-72 77%    
  Mar 06, 2025 129   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-66 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 118   @ Western Kentucky L 74-75 46%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.5 6.3 6.9 4.8 2.8 0.7 26.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 5.3 6.5 4.0 1.2 0.1 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 5.4 5.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.8 4.0 1.0 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.0 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.6 8.6 10.5 12.0 12.5 12.1 10.6 8.1 4.9 2.8 0.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.8    2.7 0.0
16-2 97.3% 4.8    4.4 0.4
15-3 85.5% 6.9    5.3 1.6 0.1
14-4 59.2% 6.3    3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 29.3% 3.5    1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1
12-6 8.8% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.2% 26.2 18.1 6.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 86.3% 56.1% 30.2% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 68.8%
17-1 2.8% 69.9% 51.0% 19.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 38.7%
16-2 4.9% 59.2% 48.6% 10.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.0 20.7%
15-3 8.1% 41.8% 37.9% 3.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.7 6.2%
14-4 10.6% 31.3% 30.7% 0.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.3 1.0%
13-5 12.1% 24.6% 24.5% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.2 1.9 0.8 0.1 9.1 0.1%
12-6 12.5% 19.0% 18.9% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.1 0.1%
11-7 12.0% 13.9% 13.8% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.4 0.0%
10-8 10.5% 9.8% 9.8% 13.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.5
9-9 8.6% 7.2% 7.2% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.0
8-10 6.6% 4.5% 4.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.3
7-11 4.6% 3.1% 3.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5
6-12 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.3% 19.7% 1.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 4.1 8.7 3.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 78.7 2.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.7 20.0 11.1 15.6 17.8 17.8 11.1 2.2 4.4