Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#77
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#39
Pace62.6#334
Improvement-2.5#317

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#115
First Shot+4.1#70
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#280
Layup/Dunks+5.1#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#35
Freethrows-2.7#323
Improvement+0.0#175

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#59
First Shot+4.3#61
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#147
Layups/Dunks-0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#23
Freethrows+2.7#32
Improvement-2.5#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.1% 33.5% 24.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.2% 3.7% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.2 11.2 11.7
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 94.5% 89.7%
Conference Champion 44.7% 46.5% 35.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four1.5% 1.7% 0.6%
First Round31.3% 32.6% 24.4%
Second Round8.8% 9.4% 5.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.6% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 83.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 24 - 34 - 3
Quad 310 - 314 - 7
Quad 48 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 227   Valparaiso W 83-63 84%     1 - 0 +16.5 +9.9 +7.4
  Nov 09, 2024 140   @ Seattle W 66-64 61%     2 - 0 +6.1 -0.1 +6.4
  Nov 16, 2024 84   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 OT 52%     2 - 1 +3.6 -1.8 +5.5
  Nov 17, 2024 122   @ College of Charleston W 68-47 56%     3 - 1 +26.5 +2.6 +25.5
  Nov 22, 2024 304   Louisiana W 89-69 91%     4 - 1 +12.2 +18.2 -4.5
  Nov 24, 2024 64   Kansas St. W 67-65 44%     5 - 1 +10.6 +5.3 +5.5
  Nov 25, 2024 92   McNeese St. W 62-58 54%     6 - 1 +10.0 +1.7 +8.9
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-52 99%     7 - 1 +12.8 +13.0 +2.4
  Dec 14, 2024 313   N.C. A&T W 83-74 95%     8 - 1 -2.6 +2.2 -5.0
  Dec 21, 2024 162   Texas Arlington W 78-68 84%    
  Jan 02, 2025 106   Western Kentucky W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 04, 2025 130   Middle Tennessee W 72-64 78%    
  Jan 09, 2025 128   @ Sam Houston St. W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 101   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 16, 2025 132   UTEP W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 199   New Mexico St. W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 242   @ Florida International W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 30, 2025 154   @ Kennesaw St. W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 173   @ Jacksonville St. W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 06, 2025 101   Louisiana Tech W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 128   Sam Houston St. W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 13, 2025 199   @ New Mexico St. W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 132   @ UTEP W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 242   Florida International W 76-61 90%    
  Feb 27, 2025 173   Jacksonville St. W 72-61 83%    
  Mar 02, 2025 154   Kennesaw St. W 77-67 81%    
  Mar 06, 2025 130   @ Middle Tennessee W 69-67 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 106   @ Western Kentucky L 70-71 49%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.4 7.3 11.2 11.2 7.7 3.8 0.9 44.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.8 6.9 7.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.4 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.4 8.1 11.5 13.9 15.5 14.8 12.0 7.8 3.8 0.9 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.8    3.7 0.0
16-2 98.8% 7.7    7.4 0.3
15-3 93.4% 11.2    9.6 1.6 0.0
14-4 75.5% 11.2    7.6 3.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 47.1% 7.3    3.1 3.2 0.9 0.1
12-6 17.1% 2.4    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.7% 44.7 32.7 9.4 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 88.6% 60.6% 28.0% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 71.1%
17-1 3.8% 73.1% 53.7% 19.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 41.8%
16-2 7.8% 58.8% 50.2% 8.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.6 0.7 3.2 17.3%
15-3 12.0% 46.6% 43.3% 3.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.2 2.0 0.0 6.4 5.8%
14-4 14.8% 37.5% 36.4% 1.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 2.2 3.2 0.0 9.3 1.7%
13-5 15.5% 30.8% 30.5% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 1.1 3.5 0.2 0.0 10.8 0.4%
12-6 13.9% 25.2% 25.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.4 2.9 0.3 10.4 0.1%
11-7 11.5% 19.8% 19.8% 12.1 0.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 9.3
10-8 8.1% 14.5% 14.5% 12.2 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.9
9-9 5.4% 12.6% 12.6% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.7
8-10 3.3% 9.4% 9.4% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0
7-11 1.7% 5.9% 5.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.1% 29.8% 2.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.7 10.4 15.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 67.9 3.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 5.0 1.7 2.1 10.4 30.7 22.4 17.0 6.2 3.3 2.9 2.1 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 77.4% 8.1 3.2 1.6 11.3 11.3 11.3 21.0 11.3 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 75.0% 8.6 1.7 13.3 10.0 8.3 11.7 16.7 13.3