Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#242
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#304
Pace74.4#58
Improvement+1.0#115

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#298
First Shot-3.5#280
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#239
Layup/Dunks+5.3#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.9#359
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement+1.8#44

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#175
First Shot+1.9#117
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#319
Layups/Dunks-2.3#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#9
Freethrows-3.1#341
Improvement-0.8#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 3.7% 8.1% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 10.2% 14.3% 8.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 48.3% 39.8% 51.2%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 25.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 33 - 114 - 17
Quad 45 - 39 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 197   @ Rice L 70-77 29%     0 - 1 -5.7 -6.5 +1.3
  Nov 09, 2024 210   @ Southern Utah L 75-80 31%     0 - 2 -4.4 -8.5 +4.8
  Nov 18, 2024 254   Howard L 70-75 64%     0 - 3 -13.2 -10.8 -2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 158   Northeastern L 58-60 33%     0 - 4 -2.0 -8.8 +6.6
  Nov 23, 2024 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-73 OT 51%     1 - 4 -1.7 -1.1 -0.7
  Nov 24, 2024 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 59-60 27%     1 - 5 +1.0 -7.2 +8.1
  Dec 04, 2024 84   Florida Atlantic L 77-88 22%     1 - 6 -7.4 +0.1 -7.1
  Dec 14, 2024 336   @ Stetson W 81-72 63%     2 - 6 +1.2 +2.6 -1.4
  Dec 17, 2024 164   @ East Carolina L 66-73 26%    
  Dec 21, 2024 353   IU Indianapolis W 78-67 86%    
  Dec 30, 2024 298   Utah Tech W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 02, 2025 130   Middle Tennessee L 71-74 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 106   Western Kentucky L 73-79 29%    
  Jan 09, 2025 101   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-76 12%    
  Jan 11, 2025 128   @ Sam Houston St. L 70-80 19%    
  Jan 16, 2025 199   New Mexico St. W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 18, 2025 132   UTEP L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 77   Liberty L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 30, 2025 173   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 01, 2025 154   @ Kennesaw St. L 74-82 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 128   Sam Houston St. L 73-77 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 101   Louisiana Tech L 67-73 28%    
  Feb 13, 2025 132   @ UTEP L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 199   @ New Mexico St. L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 77   @ Liberty L 61-76 10%    
  Feb 27, 2025 154   Kennesaw St. L 77-79 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 173   Jacksonville St. L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 06, 2025 106   @ Western Kentucky L 70-82 15%    
  Mar 08, 2025 130   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-77 20%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 1.1 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.8 2.0 0.2 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.9 6.4 3.1 0.3 0.0 14.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.5 7.9 3.8 0.5 0.0 21.7 9th
10th 1.3 4.3 8.5 10.3 8.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 36.2 10th
Total 1.3 4.3 9.0 12.9 15.4 15.4 13.7 10.5 7.4 4.7 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 93.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 79.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-5 52.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 19.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 15.1% 15.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 7.4% 7.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 7.4% 7.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.5% 4.5% 4.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 2.8% 4.1% 4.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
9-9 4.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.6
8-10 7.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.2
7-11 10.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.4
6-12 13.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.6
5-13 15.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.4
4-14 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.4
3-15 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.9
2-16 9.0% 9.0
1-17 4.3% 4.3
0-18 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%