IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.5	#164
Expected Predictive Rating	-1.8	#194

Pace	63.3	#320
Improvement	-1.3	#267

Offense
Total Offense	-0.4	#182

First Shot	-1.9	#231
After Offensive Rebound	+1.5	#101

Layup/Dunks	+2.2	#103
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.8	#218
3 Pt Jumpshots	-5.5	#337
Freethrows	+2.1	#68

Improvement	-0.8	#253

Defense
Total Defense	+0.0	#174

First Shot	-0.5	#183
After Offensive Rebounds	+0.5	#149

Layups/Dunks	+0.1	#164
2 Pt Jumpshots	+2.9	#12
3 Pt Jumpshots	-4.4	#331
Freethrows	+0.9	#119

Improvement	-0.6	#235

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.3%	1.6%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.1	13.1	13.4

.500 or above	50.1%	56.6%	31.1%
.500 or above in Conference	41.5%	44.3%	33.1%
Conference Champion	0.9%	1.1%	0.5%
Last Place in Conference	9.1%	7.8%	12.8%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	1.3%	1.6%	0.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	5 - 6	6 - 12
Quad 4	9 - 4	15 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2024	274	Coastal Carolina	W	63-59	79%	1 - 0			-5.0	-1.9	-2.3
Nov 16, 2024	83	George Mason	W	78-77 2OT	35%	2 - 0			+4.6	+0.8	+3.7
Nov 21, 2024	173	Jacksonville St.	L	78-86	51%	2 - 1			-8.8	+5.0	-13.9
Nov 22, 2024	336	Stetson	W	71-64	83%	3 - 1			-3.8	-6.2	+2.6
Nov 23, 2024	215	Illinois-Chicago	W	72-55	59%	4 - 1			+14.3	+4.2	+11.7
Nov 29, 2024	313	N.C. A&T	W	93-69	85%	5 - 1			+12.4	+15.4	-2.6
Dec 03, 2024	142	UNC Wilmington	L	53-67	56%	5 - 2			-16.0	-19.8	+3.3
Dec 07, 2024	69	@ South Carolina	L	68-75	15%	5 - 3			+3.9	+13.3	-10.6
Dec 11, 2024	193	North Alabama	L	67-74	65%	5 - 4			-11.6	-7.9	-3.6
Dec 17, 2024	242	Florida International	W	73-66	74%
Dec 21, 2024	240	Gardner-Webb	W	75-68	73%
Dec 31, 2024	145	@ South Florida	L	68-72	35%
Jan 05, 2025	84	Florida Atlantic	L	73-77	35%
Jan 08, 2025	118	Temple	L	69-70	49%
Jan 11, 2025	34	@ Memphis	L	66-82	7%
Jan 14, 2025	72	North Texas	L	58-63	32%
Jan 18, 2025	100	@ Wichita St.	L	67-76	22%
Jan 21, 2025	247	@ Tulsa	W	70-69	55%
Jan 25, 2025	145	South Florida	W	71-69	57%
Feb 01, 2025	118	@ Temple	L	67-73	29%
Feb 05, 2025	197	Rice	W	68-64	65%
Feb 08, 2025	234	@ Texas San Antonio	W	74-73	52%
Feb 11, 2025	137	UAB	W	75-74	54%
Feb 15, 2025	170	@ Charlotte	L	64-67	40%
Feb 19, 2025	203	@ Tulane	L	69-70	45%
Feb 23, 2025	234	Texas San Antonio	W	77-71	72%
Mar 02, 2025	170	Charlotte	W	67-64	61%
Mar 06, 2025	203	Tulane	W	72-67	66%
Mar 09, 2025	84	@ Florida Atlantic	L	70-80	18%
Projected Record						14 - 15	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.0	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0				3.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	1.9	2.5	1.0	0.2	0.0					6.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.6	3.4	1.3	0.1	0.0						8.0	4th
5th									0.2	2.9	4.4	1.9	0.2	0.0							9.6	5th
6th								0.1	2.0	5.6	2.6	0.3	0.0								10.6	6th
7th							0.0	1.1	5.4	3.7	0.5	0.0									10.8	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	4.3	5.2	0.9	0.0										10.9	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	2.8	5.6	1.6	0.1											10.3	9th
10th					0.1	1.8	4.8	2.5	0.1												9.4	10th
11th				0.1	1.3	3.8	2.9	0.3	0.0												8.4	11th
12th		0.0	0.2	1.1	2.7	2.4	0.4	0.0													6.8	12th
13th	0.1	0.3	1.0	1.7	1.4	0.3	0.0														4.8	13th

Total	0.1	0.3	1.2	2.9	5.5	8.5	11.5	14.0	14.6	13.5	10.6	7.8	5.0	2.6	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-2	81.8%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
15-3	50.5%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	24.9%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	8.4%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.7%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																0.0							0.0
17-1	0.0%																	0.0	0.0					0.0
16-2	0.1%		10.6%	10.6%		12.0													0.0					0.1
15-3	0.4%		9.4%	9.4%		11.9												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.4
14-4	1.3%		7.4%	7.4%		12.2												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			1.2
13-5	2.6%		6.8%	6.8%		12.5												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			2.4
12-6	5.0%		5.2%	5.2%		12.8													0.1	0.1	0.0			4.7
11-7	7.8%		3.4%	3.4%		13.0												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	7.6
10-8	10.6%		1.6%	1.6%		13.2													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		10.4
9-9	13.5%		1.0%	1.0%		13.6													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		13.4
8-10	14.6%		0.5%	0.5%		14.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	14.5
7-11	14.0%		0.4%	0.4%		15.1															0.0	0.0	0.0	13.9
6-12	11.5%		0.3%	0.3%		15.5																0.0	0.0	11.5
5-13	8.5%		0.1%	0.1%		15.8																0.0	0.0	8.5
4-14	5.5%																							5.5
3-15	2.9%																							2.9
2-16	1.2%																							1.2
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		1.3%	1.3%	0.0%	13.1											0.0	0.0	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	98.7		0.0%