East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#266
Expected Predictive Rating-10.9#317
Pace71.8#126
Improvement-0.3#214

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#273
First Shot-2.9#262
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#240
Layup/Dunks+2.4#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#347
Freethrows+2.0#75
Improvement-0.7#236

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#224
First Shot-3.0#273
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#99
Layups/Dunks-0.1#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#244
Freethrows-0.2#196
Improvement+0.4#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 2.6% 3.7% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 9.9% 11.6% 7.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 33.7% 30.6% 39.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Home) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 32 - 73 - 16
Quad 47 - 610 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 232 Georgia Southern W 92-89 56%     1 - 0 -4.1 +3.1 -7.6
  Sat, Nov 8 105 @Richmond L 72-87 12%     1 - 1 -7.6 -1.4 -5.5
  Tue, Nov 18 109 @UNC Wilmington L 60-85 13%     1 - 2 -18.1 -8.0 -11.3
  Fri, Nov 21 285 Charleston Southern L 65-77 66%     1 - 3 -21.9 -12.0 -9.9
  Tue, Nov 25 12 Michigan St. L 56-89 2%     1 - 4 -14.5 -7.3 -6.3
  Thu, Nov 27 108 St. Bonaventure L 58-67 18%     1 - 5 -4.9 -12.6 +7.8
  Tue, Dec 2 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-56 81%     2 - 5 -2.8 +2.9 -3.5
  Sat, Dec 6 281 UNC Greensboro L 78-82 65%     2 - 6 -13.5 -0.1 -13.5
  Thu, Dec 11 282 Appalachian St. W 70-66 64%    
  Sun, Dec 14 223 Buffalo W 75-74 54%    
  Wed, Dec 17 262 Presbyterian W 68-65 61%    
  Mon, Dec 22 22 @North Carolina L 65-89 1%    
  Wed, Dec 31 187 Tulane L 75-76 46%    
  Wed, Jan 7 160 @Temple L 73-81 23%    
  Sun, Jan 11 110 UAB L 73-79 28%    
  Wed, Jan 14 79 @South Florida L 70-86 7%    
  Sun, Jan 18 181 Charlotte L 70-71 46%    
  Wed, Jan 21 91 @Wichita St. L 65-79 9%    
  Sat, Jan 24 144 @North Texas L 63-73 19%    
  Wed, Jan 28 213 Rice W 72-71 52%    
  Sun, Feb 1 122 @Florida Atlantic L 69-80 16%    
  Sat, Feb 7 160 Temple L 76-78 42%    
  Wed, Feb 11 277 Texas San Antonio W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 213 @Rice L 69-74 32%    
  Wed, Feb 18 91 Wichita St. L 68-76 22%    
  Sat, Feb 21 181 @Charlotte L 67-74 27%    
  Wed, Feb 25 277 @Texas San Antonio L 73-76 41%    
  Sun, Mar 1 69 Memphis L 69-80 17%    
  Thu, Mar 5 89 Tulsa L 70-79 22%    
  Sun, Mar 8 110 @UAB L 70-82 14%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.8 0.2 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.7 1.5 0.1 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.3 2.8 0.2 12.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.2 4.1 0.6 15.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 4.9 8.0 5.0 0.9 0.0 20.1 12th
13th 0.9 3.5 6.7 7.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 22.4 13th
Total 0.9 3.5 7.9 12.4 15.3 16.2 14.5 11.3 8.0 4.9 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 21.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 3.8% 3.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 6.8% 6.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.7% 3.9% 3.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.3% 2.1% 2.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
9-9 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
8-10 8.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.0
7-11 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.3
6-12 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.5
5-13 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.2
4-14 15.3% 15.3
3-15 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.4
2-16 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.9
1-17 3.5% 3.5
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%