Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#223
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#89
Pace67.6#233
Improvement-2.9#337

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#161
First Shot+1.8#130
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#288
Layup/Dunks-4.5#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#117
Freethrows+5.3#6
Improvement-2.5#343

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#307
First Shot-5.8#349
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#68
Layups/Dunks-2.7#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#308
Freethrows-0.1#185
Improvement-0.4#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.6% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 75.8% 87.6% 66.4%
.500 or above in Conference 38.0% 44.2% 33.1%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 4.8% 8.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.6% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Away) - 44.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 412 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 224 Southern Miss W 85-79 62%     1 - 0 -0.8 +12.8 -13.2
  Fri, Nov 7 273 Green Bay W 83-76 69%     2 - 0 -1.8 +11.7 -12.9
  Tue, Nov 11 134 @DePaul W 66-53 21%     3 - 0 +17.8 -1.3 +19.6
  Tue, Nov 18 185 Vermont W 94-90 54%     4 - 0 -0.7 +12.2 -13.1
  Mon, Nov 24 341 VMI W 78-70 76%     5 - 0 -3.3 +3.2 -6.1
  Wed, Nov 26 316 Bucknell W 73-71 68%     6 - 0 -6.6 +7.1 -13.4
  Sat, Nov 29 355 @Canisius W 71-53 73%     7 - 0 +7.8 +0.8 +8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 108 St. Bonaventure L 69-77 32%     7 - 1 -6.9 +0.7 -8.0
  Tue, Dec 9 259 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74-75 44%    
  Sun, Dec 14 266 @East Carolina L 74-75 46%    
  Sat, Dec 20 245 @Western Michigan L 75-77 42%    
  Tue, Dec 30 333 @Northern Illinois W 78-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 3 310 Ball St. W 75-67 76%    
  Sat, Jan 10 190 @Ohio L 76-81 32%    
  Tue, Jan 13 121 Kent St. L 80-84 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 112 @Miami (OH) L 73-83 17%    
  Tue, Jan 20 54 Akron L 77-88 16%    
  Sat, Jan 24 167 Massachusetts L 76-77 50%    
  Tue, Jan 27 129 @Bowling Green L 70-79 21%    
  Sat, Jan 31 190 Ohio W 79-78 54%    
  Tue, Feb 3 112 Miami (OH) L 76-80 34%    
  Wed, Feb 11 310 @Ball St. W 72-70 55%    
  Tue, Feb 17 333 Northern Illinois W 81-71 81%    
  Sat, Feb 21 167 @Massachusetts L 74-80 30%    
  Tue, Feb 24 54 @Akron L 74-91 7%    
  Sat, Feb 28 309 Central Michigan W 77-70 75%    
  Tue, Mar 3 205 Eastern Michigan W 73-71 57%    
  Fri, Mar 6 163 @Toledo L 76-82 29%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.3 1.1 0.1 7.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.5 1.8 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.5 2.6 0.2 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.6 4.1 0.5 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.1 5.5 1.0 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.4 3.9 5.8 1.7 0.1 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.3 2.3 0.2 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.7 0.2 6.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.8 9.5 12.5 14.8 14.9 13.3 10.2 7.1 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 92.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 63.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 32.9% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 15.4% 15.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 15.3% 15.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.8% 10.2% 10.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 2.1% 5.5% 5.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0
12-6 4.1% 4.6% 4.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
11-7 7.1% 2.9% 2.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9
10-8 10.2% 2.2% 2.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
9-9 13.3% 1.6% 1.6% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.1
8-10 14.9% 0.8% 0.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.8
7-11 14.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 14.8
6-12 12.5% 12.5
5-13 9.5% 9.5
4-14 5.8% 5.8
3-15 2.9% 2.9
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 98.8 0.0%