Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#245
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#200
Pace70.0#171
Improvement+0.2#174

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#206
First Shot+1.5#138
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#334
Layup/Dunks+2.5#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#221
Freethrows-1.8#290
Improvement+2.1#37

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#276
First Shot+0.9#138
After Offensive Rebounds-4.1#351
Layups/Dunks+2.9#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#334
Freethrows+0.7#141
Improvement-1.9#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.6 14.6
.500 or above 19.1% 43.6% 18.6%
.500 or above in Conference 26.4% 38.8% 26.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 4.2% 11.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 63 - 12
Quad 49 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 235 Coastal Carolina W 76-71 60%     1 - 0 -2.3 -4.0 +1.4
  Sun, Nov 9 217 @Campbell L 82-91 35%     1 - 1 -9.6 -1.6 -6.8
  Wed, Nov 12 238 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-71 60%     2 - 1 +4.6 -1.3 +5.1
  Sun, Nov 16 270 @South Dakota L 78-83 42%     2 - 2 -7.7 +3.8 -11.5
  Thu, Nov 20 24 @Ohio St. L 58-91 3%     2 - 3 -15.3 -9.1 -5.1
  Sun, Nov 23 304 Mount St. Mary's W 83-60 73%     3 - 3 +12.0 +7.6 +5.0
  Sat, Nov 29 211 @Valparaiso L 55-84 34%     3 - 4 -29.3 -11.4 -20.1
  Wed, Dec 3 314 Southern Indiana W 88-74 75%     4 - 4 +2.4 +8.1 -6.2
  Sat, Dec 6 230 @SIU Edwardsville W 83-73 36%     5 - 4 +9.0 +14.3 -5.0
  Sun, Dec 14 25 @Iowa L 61-83 2%    
  Sat, Dec 20 223 Buffalo W 77-75 58%    
  Tue, Dec 30 163 @Toledo L 75-82 26%    
  Tue, Jan 6 112 @Miami (OH) L 73-84 15%    
  Sat, Jan 10 205 Eastern Michigan W 73-72 54%    
  Tue, Jan 13 167 Massachusetts L 76-77 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 54 @Akron L 74-92 5%    
  Tue, Jan 20 129 Bowling Green L 72-76 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 309 Central Michigan W 78-71 72%    
  Tue, Jan 27 333 @Northern Illinois W 78-75 59%    
  Tue, Feb 3 190 @Ohio L 76-82 31%    
  Wed, Feb 11 163 Toledo L 78-79 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 205 @Eastern Michigan L 70-75 33%    
  Tue, Feb 17 54 Akron L 77-89 15%    
  Sat, Feb 21 309 @Central Michigan W 75-74 52%    
  Tue, Feb 24 129 @Bowling Green L 69-79 19%    
  Sat, Feb 28 112 Miami (OH) L 76-81 32%    
  Tue, Mar 3 310 Ball St. W 74-67 73%    
  Fri, Mar 6 121 @Kent St. L 77-87 18%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.2 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.4 1.9 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.0 5.0 0.7 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.6 4.6 6.1 1.6 0.1 12.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.6 2.4 0.2 13.5 10th
11th 0.5 3.2 5.9 2.8 0.3 12.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 10.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.3 8.8 12.5 15.1 15.1 13.6 10.5 7.6 4.6 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 63.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 25.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 13.0% 13.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 3.4% 3.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 0.9% 5.5% 5.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 2.3% 4.3% 4.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
11-7 4.6% 2.7% 2.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5
10-8 7.6% 2.2% 2.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
9-9 10.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.4
8-10 13.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 13.5
7-11 15.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 15.1
6-12 15.1% 15.1
5-13 12.5% 12.5
4-14 8.8% 8.8
3-15 5.3% 5.3
2-16 2.4% 2.4
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%