Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 295
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 280
Pace 69.0 174
Improvement -4.4 337

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #204 D+ C- C- D+ C-
Defense D #337 D D F+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 210 51% 335 -3.4 296
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 120 40% 118 +1.4 102
Three Pointers 39% 214 35% 148 -0.4 190
1st FG Attempt 0.97 249 -2.4 249
Second Chance 30.3% 188 0.99 222 0.30 200
Turnovers 17.4% 208
Freethrows 0.28 276 71% 214 0.20 267
Total Offense -1.4 204

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 270 62% 294 +0.1 176
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 354 40% 267 +2.3 24
Three Pointers 51% 8 35% 241 -5.9 355
1st FG Attempt 1.09 291 -3.5 291
Second Chance 31.3% 217 1.16 338 0.36 308
Turnovers 13.2% 346
Freethrows 0.31 199 71% 111 0.22 180
Total Defense -6.4 337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.4 241 +0.7 291
Shot Type Accuracy -2.0 244 +2.7 284
Possession Length 18.1 259 16.5 45
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 153 0.20 262
Improvement +0.2 #166 -4.6 #353

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 67% 41% 76%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 26.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 48 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 238 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 48% -1  30% 1 - 0 C- -2 D- -7 C F F B +4 B- D- B-
 Sun, Nov 9 192 @Campbell L 82 - 91 20% -6  5% 1 - 1 D -8 D -6 F+ F D+ C -1 D D+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 242 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 49% +1  45% 2 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -3 D- D+ C+ B+ +6 A+ D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 281 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 35% +3  79% 2 - 2 D -9 C +1 B- A+ F F+ -10 D+ D F
 Thu, Nov 20 39 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 2% -25  0% 2 - 3 F+ -16 F -14 F D F C -1 C- B B-
 Sun, Nov 23 289 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 61% +8  97% 3 - 3 B+ +13 B +7 B B- A B+ +6 C+ C+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 155 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 16% -14  6% 3 - 4 F -26 F -13 F B+ F F -15 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 340 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 75% +13  95% 4 - 4 C -1 B +6 A- B- B- D- -8 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 245 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 28% +8  95% 5 - 4 B +8 A +13 A+ A- F D+ -5 C- C- F
 Sun, Dec 14 25 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2% -30  0% 5 - 5 F -21 F -12 F B+ B F -13 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 202 Buffalo L 71 - 88 42% -10  6% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -23 D -5 D F A+ F -19 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 30 165 @Toledo L 79 - 84 17% +3  59% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C- -2 C +0 F+ C D C- -3 A- F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 87 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 7% -6  6% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C- -2 C- -1 D D B+ C +0 C D- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 231 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 47% +1  54% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B +10 B +6 B+ B F B +5 C- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 183 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 37% -4  16% 6 - 9 1 - 4 D+ -7 B +7 B A+ B F -14 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 72 @Akron L 89 - 104 5% -2  42% 6 - 10 1 - 5 C- -4 A+ +19 A+ B C+ F -24 F F F+
 Tue, Jan 20 158 Bowling Green L 54 - 72 33% -10  9% 6 - 11 1 - 6 F -21 F -18 F D F+ D+ -4 C A F
 Sat, Jan 24 296 Central Michigan W 77 - 65 62% +3  62% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C +1 D+ -3 F+ D- A+ B +4 A+ D- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 314 @Northern Illinois L 65 - 85 44% -12  0% 7 - 12 2 - 7 F -26 C- -1 D- D- C- F -28 F F F
 Tue, Feb 3 199 @Ohio L 71 - 91 22% -13  0% 7 - 13 2 - 8 F -20 D+ -4 C+ F A+ F -16 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 7 234 @Texas St. L 61 - 77 26% -5  19% 7 - 14 F+ -17 D- -7 D- C+ D F -12 F C+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 165 Toledo L 79 - 90 34% -5  15% 7 - 15 2 - 9 F+ -14 C +1 F A+ A+ F -16 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 231 @Eastern Michigan L 70 - 77 26%
 Tue, Feb 17 72 Akron L 76 - 89 12%
 Sat, Feb 21 296 @Central Michigan L 76 - 79 39%
 Tue, Feb 24 158 @Bowling Green L 70 - 80 17%
 Fri, Feb 27 87 Miami (OH) L 77 - 88 15%
 Tue, Mar 3 310 Ball St. W 73 - 69 66%
 Fri, Mar 6 147 @Kent St. L 76 - 87 14%
Totals 9 - 20 4 - 14 -8 C- -1 D+ C- C- D -6 D D F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C+ C+ C- 37% 23% 39% C- D+ C C- C- C- D+ C- D+ D D+ D+ C- D+ 36% 14% 51% D+ D C- D- D F+ C C+ C
1.07 51% 40% 35% -2 0 0.97 30% 1.0 .30 17% .28 71% .20 1.18 62% 40% 35% +3 +1 1.09 31% 1.2 .36 13% .31 71% .20
Nov
3		 Coastal Carolina D- D+ A+ F C- 38% 31% 31% C+ C F C- F F A+ A+ A+ B D C+ A B- 25% 26% 49% C+ B- B F D- B- F+ A+ C-
1.01 50% 53% 27% -2 -1 0.96 16% 1.0 .16 20% .58 80% .46 0.94 62% 36% 27% -5 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .32 17% .32 60% .19
Nov
9		 Campbell D F D+ C+ F 50% 25% 25% C F+ D+ F F D+ A A A+ C A- B- F F+ 32% 13% 55% B D A+ F D+ C F C+ F
1.02 50% 36% 36% -4 0 0.95 28% 0.8 .23 19% .40 81% .32 1.13 47% 33% 42% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.6 .38 19% .63 71% .44
Nov
12		 Purdue Fort Wayne D+ C F D F+ 43% 14% 43% C+ D- A- F D+ C+ C- D+ C- B+ B+ C A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% C A+ F B D+ D- C D C-
1.09 60% 25% 32% -2 +1 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 20% .25 73% .18 0.94 50% 38% 23% -12 0 0.79 29% 0.9 .27 12% .24 75% .18
Nov
16		 South Dakota C A- C+ F B- 62% 15% 23% B- B- A- A A+ F F+ A D F+ A- F D+ D+ 28% 15% 57% C+ D+ C+ F D F C+ A+ A-
1.13 69% 43% 27% +5 +2 1.17 41% 1.5 .59 22% .20 82% .17 1.21 47% 50% 35% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.3 .34 4% .33 64% .21
Nov
20		 Ohio St. F F+ F F F 21% 42% 38% F F D+ D+ D F C- C- C- C F F B- C- 33% 16% 51% D C- F A+ B B- C- C C-
0.80 45% 27% 25% -12 -4 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 22% .27 73% .19 1.25 83% 56% 32% +10 0 1.22 47% 0.7 .33 17% .38 78% .30
Nov
23		 Mount St. Mary's B C A+ D+ B- 43% 19% 38% B- B D A+ B- A F A+ F+ B+ C A+ C+ B- 41% 10% 49% D C+ A F C+ B A F B
1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19 0.88 57% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18
Nov
29		 Valparaiso F F F B- F 42% 27% 31% C- F C A+ B+ F F+ F F F A F F F 30% 24% 46% D F F F F C F F F
0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14 1.29 43% 45% 48% +7 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42
Dec
3		 Southern Indiana B B- A+ B+ A- 49% 15% 36% B- A- F A+ B- B- F F+ F D- A C- F F 33% 23% 44% C+ F A F C- F F A+ F
1.22 62% 56% 38% +7 +1 1.19 17% 2.0 .34 14% .19 67% .13 1.02 38% 36% 43% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.2 .24 10% .55 50% .28
Dec
6		 SIU Edwardsville A D A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ C A+ A- F B+ A+ A+ D+ C- D- A- C 34% 21% 45% F+ C- B F C- F C+ A+ B
1.22 50% 54% 58% +18 -2 1.34 33% 1.3 .43 28% .39 89% .35 1.07 58% 42% 28% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 7% .27 59% .16
Dec
14		 Iowa F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F A- C B+ B A+ F C- F D- D- F F 40% 8% 52% D- F B- C- C+ F B A+ A
0.79 38% 10% 24% -20 0 0.62 36% 0.9 .33 20% .43 50% .21 1.42 71% 50% 48% +17 +2 1.40 31% 1.1 .34 9% .29 65% .19
Dec
20		 Buffalo D D C- C D- 35% 14% 51% C D D+ F F A+ D- C D- F F A+ C C- 34% 8% 58% D C- D F F F D C- D
1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15 1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29
Dec
30		 Toledo C F C B D- 36% 27% 38% F+ F+ A F C D C C C C- F F A+ A 37% 22% 41% C- A- F C F D+ F A+ F
1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18 1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39
Jan
6		 Miami (OH) C- D A F F+ 52% 19% 30% B+ D C F D B+ A- D+ B C F C- A C+ 43% 11% 47% D- C F B D- B+ F C- F
1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25 1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45
Jan
10		 Eastern Michigan B A+ F+ A+ A+ 31% 38% 31% F B+ A- C B F A+ C A+ B D B- A B- 49% 6% 45% F C- A+ A+ A+ C- A- A+ A
1.19 77% 31% 46% +9 -3 1.14 37% 1.0 .37 21% .52 74% .38 0.94 64% 33% 26% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.7 .12 17% .18 60% .11
Jan
13		 Massachusetts B D- A+ A B+ 32% 15% 53% C- B B+ A+ A+ B F B F+ F C- C- C C- 29% 19% 52% C+ C D+ F F F+ C- F D-
1.21 53% 63% 39% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.3 .47 15% .28 75% .21 1.26 60% 40% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 15% .35 80% .28
Jan
17		 Akron A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ B- B B C+ D F D- F D B- F F 33% 15% 53% C+ F F F F F+ A+ F A-
1.31 61% 64% 48% +16 0 1.33 37% 1.1 .40 18% .25 64% .16 1.53 67% 38% 55% +20 0 1.42 41% 1.5 .62 12% .15 89% .13
Jan
20		 Bowling Green F F A+ F F 34% 15% 51% C F C F D F+ F+ B+ D D+ C+ F A B- 58% 6% 36% F C C+ A+ A F F B- F
0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19 1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32
Jan
24		 Central Michigan D+ D- F+ D F 50% 15% 35% B- F+ D D D- A+ A+ C- A+ B C- A+ A+ A+ 39% 14% 47% F A+ C- F D- D+ F D F
1.13 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 10% .54 70% .38 0.96 58% 0% 17% -17 +1 0.69 29% 1.3 .39 16% .46 73% .33
Jan
27		 Northern Illinois C- F F C+ D- 34% 17% 49% D+ D- A F D- C- A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 36% 8% 56% C- F F C- F F A+ A- A+
1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44 1.40 50% 75% 50% +14 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12
Feb
3		 Ohio D+ D F A+ C+ 52% 21% 27% B- C+ F D- F A+ A- F F F F D- F F 35% 8% 58% F F C- F F D- D F F
1.03 52% 27% 50% +1 +1 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 9% .40 40% .16 1.32 72% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.3 .40 13% .37 82% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas St. D- F A B- D- 40% 22% 38% D+ D- C+ C+ C+ D F A+ F F F F+ F F 36% 32% 32% B F B+ D- C+ D- A F B+
0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10 1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17
Feb
11		 Toledo C F C+ D F 28% 31% 41% F F D+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A- F D+ F F F 49% 15% 36% F F A+ F B+ F F A+ D-
1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23 1.31 62% 75% 47% +15 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 1.9 3.8 0.7 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.7 7.8 2.2 0.1 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 8.3 7.7 0.2 16.3 11th
12th 5.5 17.4 2.0 0.0 24.9 12th
13th 9.6 24.5 6.3 0.2 40.5 13th
Total 9.6 30.0 32.7 19.6 6.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 6.5% 6.5
5-13 19.6% 19.6
4-14 32.7% 32.7
3-15 30.0% 30.0
2-16 9.6% 9.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.6%