Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -4.0 232
Results Rating -2.3 202
Consistency 0.15 174
Pace 65.9 253
Improvement +6.3 18

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 268 D+ C- D C- D
Defense C 180 D B- B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 39 C- 56% 245 +2.2 102
2 Pt. Jumpers 65% 5 C+ 40% 93 +5.1 11
Three Pointers 24% 365 D- 30% 328 -10.3 365
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 313 C- -1.9 249
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 276
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 126 D- 0.90 337 C- 0.29 233
Opponents' Steals D- 11.5% 334
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 209
Turnovers D 18.9% 315
Freethrows D+ 0.28 259 B 76% 55 C- 0.21 208
Total Offense D+ -3.7 268

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 129 D- 14.5% 339
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 139 C+ 4.3% 134
Three Pointers B- 88% 94 C+ 0.8% 150
Total D+ 50% 297 F 8.0% 351


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 84 C- 60% 230 +3.1 290
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 290 C+ 37% 117 -1.6 59
Three Pointers 40% 198 D- 38% 337 +2.1 291
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 302 D+ +2.8 290
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 303
Second Chance C+ 29.6% 159 B 0.94 53 B- 0.28 83
Turnovers from Steals B 11.5% 45
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 254
Turnovers B- 18.3% 84
Freethrows D+ 0.33 268 C 72% 153 D+ 0.24 262
Total Defense C -0.3 180

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 48 C+ 12.0% 135
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 31 B 7.2% 57
Three Pointers B- 80% 71 D+ 0.4% 299
Total B- 51% 83 C+ 6.5% 114

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 201 17.4 198
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 115 0.17 175
Consistency 0.12 122 0.13 226
Improvement +4.1 26 +2.3 71

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 242 230 212
Results Rating Rank 212 205 180
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 5% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 5% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 33 - 103 - 10
Quad 415 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 165 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 27% -13  0% 0 - 1 F -33 F -25 F F F D- -8 F A- C+
 Sat, Nov 8 184 @Tulane L 71 - 79 30% +6  77% 0 - 2 D+ -7 C +0 D+ B+ C+ D- -7 F+ A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 334 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 84% +10  97% 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F A- B+ C -1 B- C D+
 Sat, Nov 15 301 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 76% +12  97% 2 - 2 C -1 D -5 D+ A+ F B- +3 C- B A
 Tue, Nov 18 235 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 62% +11  96% 3 - 2 B- +7 D- -6 D D- F A+ +15 A+ D A
 Fri, Nov 21 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 75% +5  88% 4 - 2 C- -2 F -11 B- F F A +10 B+ A- A
 Fri, Nov 28 117 Seattle L 52 - 66 25% -5  9% 4 - 3 D -11 D- -8 C- F D D -5 F A D
 Sat, Nov 29 294 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 64% +1  50% 4 - 4 D- -12 D -6 D C- F D -6 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 222 @Rice L 72 - 77 37% -2  23% 4 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ F C C- -3 B F B-
 Wed, Dec 10 277 Southern W 86 - 83 70% -2  27% 5 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -4 A F F D+ -3 F C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 146 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 42% -8  4% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -9 F C- C F -11 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 186 South Alabama W 67 - 65 53% -6  4% 6 - 6 1 - 1 C- -3 D -5 F A C- B- +2 C+ B A-
 Wed, Dec 31 150 @Troy L 80 - 100 24% -8  12% 6 - 7 1 - 2 F+ -17 B+ +8 C+ A+ D F -25 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 76% +3  80% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 F A D D+ -4 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 8 225 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 37% +0  50% 7 - 8 2 - 3 D -11 F+ -10 F C- C- C -0 D+ B C+
 Sat, Jan 10 146 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 22% -5  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +3 C +0 C- A+ F B- +3 B A B
 Wed, Jan 14 297 Louisiana W 59 - 54 75% +5  83% 8 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -6 F -12 B F F+ B+ +6 B B C
 Sat, Jan 17 225 Southern Miss W 74 - 67 60% +3  70% 9 - 9 4 - 4 C +0 D+ -4 C D- F B +4 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 228 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 38% -3  30% 9 - 10 4 - 5 C- -3 C- -1 F D+ A+ C- -2 C B+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 207 @James Madison L 57 - 82 33% -17  2% 9 - 11 4 - 6 F -24 F -13 F F B- F -15 F D- C
 Wed, Jan 28 189 Marshall W 72 - 68 53% +4  72% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C -1 F+ -8 D B- D A- +7 B A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 244 Old Dominion W 81 - 64 64% +12  99% 11 - 11 6 - 6 B +9 C+ +3 C+ D- B+ A- +7 A- C+ A
 Wed, Feb 4 260 @Georgia Southern W 77 - 71 45% +3  52% 12 - 11 7 - 6 C+ +3 C- -1 F A+ C B +4 D A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 280 Western Michigan W 77 - 61 71% +5  78% 13 - 11 B- +6 C+ +3 B+ D D- B+ +5 C+ C A-
 Wed, Feb 11 150 Troy W 74 - 62 45% +9  98% 14 - 11 8 - 6 B +9 B- +4 A D+ F B+ +6 B+ B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 354 Louisiana Monroe W 95 - 84 89% +6  93% 15 - 11 9 - 6 D+ -6 A+ +18 A A+ A F -23 F F C
 Thu, Feb 19 186 @South Alabama W 90 - 82 OT 31% +3  68% 16 - 11 10 - 6 B +9 A +13 A D- B D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 297 @Louisiana L 54 - 67 54% -11  0% 16 - 12 10 - 7 F -18 F -13 F C+ F D- -7 F F A
 Fri, Feb 27 172 Appalachian St. W 60 - 57 50% -2  26% 17 - 12 11 - 7 C -1 D- -7 B- F C- B+ +6 A- C A
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 -4 D+ -4 C C- D C +0 D- B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C+ D- C- 44% 65% 24% D D+ C+ D- C- D D+ B C- C C- C+ D- D+ 42% 17% 40% D D C+ B B- B- D+ C D+
1.03 56% 40% 30% -2 -1 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 19% .28 76% .21 1.09 60% 37% 38% +3 +1 1.09 30% 0.9 .28 18% .33 72% .20
Nov
3		 Bowling Green F D- C+ F F 47% 20% 33% C+ F F C- F F F F F D- F A- F F 47% 14% 39% C- F B- A+ A- C+ B B B+
0.68 50% 40% 18% -12 +1 0.80 14% 1.0 .14 26% .13 43% .06 1.18 71% 29% 50% +14 +2 1.33 25% 0.6 .14 17% .27 69% .19
Nov
8		 Tulane C F D A+ D+ 46% 25% 29% C D+ C- A+ B+ C+ F A+ D+ D- D+ A+ F F+ 41% 14% 45% D F+ B A+ A+ B- F F F
1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20 1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54
Nov
12		 Texas San Antonio D+ C+ F+ F F 43% 25% 32% D+ F B+ B- A- B+ A+ B A+ C B B- A+ B+ 48% 12% 40% F B- B+ F+ C D+ F C- F
1.14 61% 31% 12% -11 0 0.79 44% 1.2 .51 13% .42 77% .33 0.98 48% 33% 24% -12 +2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .37 73% .27
Nov
15		 Texas Southern D B- C- D C- 43% 22% 35% D+ D+ C- A+ A+ F A+ B A+ B- C F+ A C- 47% 29% 24% C- C- D A+ B A F A F
1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44 0.94 57% 46% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33
Nov
18		 Abilene Christian D- F F+ A+ D- 56% 26% 18% C- D A+ F D- F B+ C+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F A+ F C+ D A F+ A+ B-
1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36 0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21
Nov
21		 Arkansas Little Rock F A C+ C+ B- 51% 24% 24% C- B- B- F F F B F D+ A A+ A C+ A+ 56% 18% 27% F B+ C- A+ A- A F C F
1.01 74% 36% 36% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.2 .07 26% .34 56% .19 0.87 44% 25% 33% -10 +2 0.84 32% 0.7 .21 23% .36 67% .24
Nov
28		 Seattle D- B- C+ F C+ 40% 42% 19% F C- B+ F F D F B F D F A+ C+ F 55% 11% 34% F F A A+ A D D+ A+ C+
0.85 58% 40% 22% -3 -3 0.92 37% 0.2 .06 23% .17 75% .13 1.08 79% 0% 33% +7 +2 1.20 18% 0.6 .11 15% .33 59% .19
Nov
29		 Lehigh D D- B C- C 33% 54% 13% F D A F C- F A+ B+ A+ D B D- F F 40% 17% 43% F+ F C- A+ A+ C A- A+ A
1.05 50% 46% 33% +2 -5 0.96 44% 0.8 .33 20% .41 78% .32 1.11 52% 44% 57% +13 +1 1.30 23% 0.3 .06 18% .21 58% .12
Dec
3		 Rice D+ B C- C+ C 35% 44% 21% F D+ B F F C C C C C- F B- A+ B+ 23% 27% 50% C B D F F B- F F+ F
1.06 67% 35% 36% +2 -3 1.00 38% 0.5 .18 16% .33 74% .25 1.13 80% 33% 23% -5 -2 0.89 39% 1.3 .50 19% .53 76% .40
Dec
10		 Southern D+ B- B A+ A- 53% 15% 32% A- A C- F F F A+ C- A+ D+ F+ C F F 26% 31% 43% A- F C- C+ C A+ C C C
1.08 64% 43% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 24% .51 74% .38 1.05 64% 35% 43% +7 -2 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 24% .31 68% .22
Dec
17		 Arkansas St. F+ F C F F 53% 28% 19% C+ F D+ B- C- C D A+ C+ F D- A+ F F 46% 13% 41% D F F F F A+ D C- D
0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24 1.23 67% 0% 53% +10 +1 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28
Dec
20		 South Alabama D D- B+ F F 38% 16% 47% C+ F A+ D A C- A+ A+ A+ B- C+ F A+ B 56% 13% 31% F C+ B C+ B A- F B- F+
1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37 0.99 56% 50% 20% -7 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26
Dec
31		 Troy B+ D+ C A+ C+ 40% 27% 33% D+ C+ A A- A+ D D+ F+ D F F+ A+ F F 65% 7% 28% F F F F F F F A+ F
1.18 52% 43% 41% +2 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 19% .25 64% .16 1.47 67% 0% 69% +18 +4 1.46 45% 1.3 .59 12% .53 63% .33
Jan
3		 Louisiana Monroe D+ D+ B- F F 49% 31% 20% D- F A- B A D D- D D- D+ F A+ F F 37% 19% 44% C- F A+ A+ A+ B B B B+
1.15 59% 44% 25% -1 -1 1.00 43% 1.3 .54 18% .20 67% .13 1.08 68% 20% 52% +12 0 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 19% .27 69% .19
Jan
8		 Southern Miss F+ F+ B- F F 38% 21% 41% C- F C- C- C- C- C F+ D+ C F B+ C+ D 41% 36% 23% B- D+ B+ C+ B C+ D+ C- D+
0.91 48% 42% 26% -8 0 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 18% .35 64% .22 1.04 70% 30% 31% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .39 75% .29
Jan
10		 Arkansas St. C A+ D- F C 44% 35% 20% D- C- D+ A+ A+ F C- A+ B B- D- A+ A+ B+ 43% 13% 44% D B F A+ A B F D F
1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26 1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41
Jan
14		 Louisiana F C+ A+ A+ B 60% 23% 16% C+ B D F F F+ F F F B+ A- A+ F A- 37% 23% 40% F B A+ F B C F C+ F
0.97 62% 50% 43% +7 +1 1.19 27% 0.3 .08 21% .21 60% .13 0.89 44% 10% 41% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.2 .19 16% .37 68% .26
Jan
17		 Southern Miss D+ F+ A+ A C 49% 21% 31% C+ C D F D- F A+ A+ A+ B B F A+ C+ 38% 34% 28% B- C+ A+ C+ A+ C+ D- F F
1.03 47% 50% 42% +1 +1 1.05 24% 0.8 .20 25% .65 80% .52 0.94 53% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.90 16% 1.0 .16 20% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Coastal Carolina C- F A- F F 34% 45% 21% F+ F C F D+ A+ B- A+ A+ C- F F+ A+ C 24% 27% 49% C+ C B+ B- B+ D F D+ F
1.02 42% 48% 8% -9 -3 0.77 29% 0.8 .24 6% .33 90% .30 1.05 67% 46% 25% -2 -2 0.94 21% 0.9 .18 13% .49 76% .37
Jan
24		 James Madison F C F F F 45% 28% 28% D+ F D+ F F B- B- C- B- F D+ F F F 26% 12% 62% C+ F F B- D- C A D+ A-
0.90 57% 15% 23% -11 0 0.79 28% 0.6 .18 11% .37 71% .27 1.30 62% 50% 45% +13 0 1.28 37% 1.0 .37 17% .21 73% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Marshall F+ F+ F A+ D 48% 24% 28% B- D D+ A+ B- D C- D D+ A- D- B- A+ B+ 40% 25% 35% D B A+ B+ A+ F B+ A+ A
1.05 50% 25% 43% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.3 .39 19% .34 68% .23 0.99 70% 36% 25% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 10% .19 58% .11
Jan
31		 Old Dominion C+ C C- A+ B 39% 33% 27% F+ C+ C+ F D- B+ B+ A- A A- C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 14% 45% F A- F A+ C+ A F F F
1.17 60% 35% 43% +3 -2 1.06 32% 0.7 .24 12% .41 80% .33 0.93 60% 14% 23% -10 +1 0.84 33% 0.8 .27 20% .40 82% .33
Feb
4		 Georgia Southern C- F+ D F F 57% 18% 24% B- F B A+ A+ C C+ A+ A B C+ F B- D- 39% 14% 47% C+ D A+ D A C- D C D
1.11 50% 33% 25% -9 +2 0.88 39% 1.4 .55 19% .39 91% .35 1.02 53% 71% 30% 0 +1 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 14% .37 73% .27
Feb
7		 Western Michigan C+ B+ A A A 36% 32% 32% F B+ D+ D- D D- F A+ F+ B+ A+ F+ D+ C+ 40% 22% 38% D+ C+ C- C+ C A- A+ F A+
1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17 0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10
Feb
11		 Troy B- A A+ F A+ 37% 44% 19% F A D+ C- D+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ B A B- B 26% 18% 56% A+ B+ C- A+ B+ A+ F D+ F
1.16 69% 63% 25% +13 -3 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 22% .38 84% .32 0.97 50% 29% 32% -6 -1 0.90 35% 0.7 .26 24% .53 77% .41
Feb
14		 Louisiana Monroe A+ C A+ A+ A 55% 25% 21% C A A+ A+ A+ A F+ B- D- F B- F F F 48% 13% 39% F F F D+ F C D A+ C
1.48 62% 77% 45% +15 +1 1.34 57% 1.5 .87 11% .19 73% .14 1.31 50% 67% 56% +13 +2 1.30 38% 1.1 .41 17% .36 63% .23
Feb
19		 South Alabama A A- A A+ A+ 20% 34% 46% F A C F D- B A+ C- A+ D+ F D F F 48% 13% 39% D- F A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ D+ C
1.24 70% 47% 43% +12 -3 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 15% .53 73% .39 1.13 69% 43% 43% +11 +2 1.28 7% 0.0 .00 14% .30 68% .21
Feb
21		 Louisiana F F+ F+ F F 30% 43% 28% F F A F+ C+ F B- B+ B D- A- C F F 28% 41% 31% B F D F F A F D F
0.90 50% 29% 18% -13 -3 0.70 41% 0.9 .35 25% .40 78% .31 1.12 45% 38% 67% +11 -3 1.18 31% 1.1 .35 22% .41 74% .30
Feb
27		 Appalachian St. D- D+ A+ B+ A- 40% 43% 17% F B- F F F C- C+ F D+ B+ C D+ A+ A 36% 11% 53% D A- F A+ C A F A D-
0.99 53% 50% 38% +4 -3 1.04 21% 0.7 .14 15% .29 60% .17 0.94 59% 40% 20% -11 +1 0.83 48% 0.7 .31 21% .46 55% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.3 1.2 0.7 97.8
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.2 97.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 15.2 13.5 54.4 32.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.1%
Lose Out 54.3%