South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#166
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#90
Pace63.1#336
Improvement+1.2#102

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#165
First Shot+1.2#145
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#272
Layup/Dunks+5.7#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#309
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement+1.9#47

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#183
First Shot+1.1#133
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#298
Layups/Dunks+6.1#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-13.4#365
Freethrows+5.2#5
Improvement-0.7#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 15.4% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 96.7% 99.0% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 88.8% 82.2%
Conference Champion 17.9% 20.9% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.3% 15.4% 11.0%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 414 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 163 @Toledo W 76-74 38%     1 - 0 +4.4 +7.6 -3.0
  Thu, Nov 6 334 Alcorn St. W 76-70 88%     2 - 0 -7.4 -4.9 -2.8
  Thu, Nov 13 309 Central Michigan W 66-64 76%     3 - 0 -6.2 -2.5 -3.4
  Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72-62 93%     4 - 0 -7.4 -3.6 -3.3
  Wed, Nov 19 239 @Jacksonville St. W 71-65 52%     5 - 0 +4.6 +4.9 +0.0
  Fri, Nov 21 110 @UAB L 72-80 24%     5 - 1 -1.3 +9.5 -11.5
  Sun, Nov 30 277 @Texas San Antonio W 82-58 59%     6 - 1 +20.9 +8.2 +12.3
  Tue, Dec 2 127 New Mexico St. W 77-75 38%     7 - 1 +4.3 +9.7 -5.3
  Fri, Dec 5 117 @East Tennessee St. L 65-91 25%     7 - 2 -19.8 -2.9 -17.4
  Sun, Dec 14 144 North Texas W 65-64 54%    
  Wed, Dec 17 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 76-66 84%    
  Sat, Dec 20 237 @Texas St. W 67-66 52%    
  Wed, Dec 31 319 @Louisiana W 67-62 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 147 @Troy L 68-72 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 232 Georgia Southern W 77-71 72%    
  Thu, Jan 15 149 Arkansas St. W 76-74 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 319 Louisiana W 70-59 84%    
  Thu, Jan 22 177 @James Madison L 70-72 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 172 @Marshall L 71-74 40%    
  Thu, Jan 29 235 Coastal Carolina W 74-67 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 338 Georgia St. W 75-62 88%    
  Wed, Feb 4 282 @Appalachian St. W 66-63 60%    
  Thu, Feb 12 224 @Southern Miss W 72-71 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 149 @Arkansas St. L 73-77 36%    
  Thu, Feb 19 237 Texas St. W 70-63 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 147 Troy W 71-69 55%    
  Wed, Feb 25 360 Louisiana Monroe W 79-63 93%    
  Fri, Feb 27 224 Southern Miss W 75-69 70%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.6 5.0 2.9 1.0 0.2 17.9 1st
2nd 0.3 3.3 6.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 6.4 3.5 0.6 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.8 4.0 0.6 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.0 4.7 0.8 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 4.6 1.4 0.1 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.3 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.6 0.4 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.0 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.9 9.9 12.8 14.6 15.0 13.2 10.1 6.0 3.0 1.0 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 96.0% 2.9    2.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 84.0% 5.0    3.7 1.2 0.1
14-4 55.0% 5.6    2.5 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.9% 2.8    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 10.5 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 49.2% 49.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 45.9% 45.9% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5
16-2 3.0% 42.8% 42.8% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7
15-3 6.0% 34.2% 34.2% 13.4 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.9
14-4 10.1% 29.5% 29.5% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.1
13-5 13.2% 21.8% 21.8% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 10.3
12-6 15.0% 12.7% 12.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 13.1
11-7 14.6% 6.3% 6.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 13.7
10-8 12.8% 4.0% 4.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.2
9-9 9.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8
8-10 6.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
7-11 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 2.0% 2.0
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 5.8 2.5 0.2 86.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.5 9.1 36.4 54.5