Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.8 264
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 275
Pace 72.7 73
Improvement -0.3 198

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #264 D C C C D
Defense C- #246 D D+ B- F+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 232 55% 244 -2.0 255
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 38 33% 331 +1.7 87
Three Pointers 34% 313 32% 259 -4.4 323
1st FG Attempt 0.92 319 -4.7 319
Second Chance 30.4% 182 1.01 203 0.31 192
Turnovers 16.9% 178
Freethrows 0.32 124 68% 300 0.22 173
Total Offense -3.5 264

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 297 60% 248 +1.4 128
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 200 39% 238 +0.0 188
Three Pointers 46% 54 39% 346 -5.7 352
1st FG Attempt 1.10 313 -4.3 312
Second Chance 32.4% 261 1.11 301 0.36 299
Turnovers 18.8% 74
Freethrows 0.37 331 76% 335 0.28 347
Total Defense -2.3 246

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.2 318 -0.2 138
Shot Type Accuracy -3.5 302 +4.3 331
Possession Length 16.6 103 16.7 87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 127 0.21 305
Improvement -0.2 #195 -0.1 #194

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19% 22% 16%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 17% 25% 6%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 99% 93%
Conference Champion 11% 16% 5%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four16% 16% 14%
First Round12% 14% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Away) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 11 - 8
Quad 412 - 913 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 19 @Arkansas L 77 - 109 1% -21  2% 0 - 1 D -11 C- -1 C- B- B+ D+ -5 C+ C+ C-
 Wed, Nov 5 85 @Marquette L 82 - 100 8% -9  11% 0 - 2 D -8 C+ +3 C+ C A D- -9 F B- D-
 Tue, Nov 18 46 @Washington L 93 - 99 2OT 4% +3  61% 0 - 3 B +8 C+ +2 C- A+ D- A- +8 A D+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 236 @San Jose St. L 66 - 80 33% -8  6% 0 - 4 F+ -15 F -11 F+ F D D+ -4 D D A+
 Sat, Nov 29 280 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 73 42% +8  92% 1 - 4 C- -2 C- -1 C C- D- C -1 D+ F B+
 Mon, Dec 8 30 @Texas L 69 - 95 2% -17  0% 1 - 5 D -8 D+ -3 B- F F D+ -5 F+ F B+
 Wed, Dec 10 234 @Texas St. L 83 - 86 32% +2  66% 1 - 6 C- -4 C- -1 C+ C+ F C- -3 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 138 @California Baptist L 67 - 75 17% -4  6% 1 - 7 C- -4 D+ -3 D B F C -1 C- B D+
 Sun, Dec 21 42 @Baylor L 67 - 111 3% -15  12% 1 - 8 F -28 D+ -3 F A+ A- F -25 F D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 6 @Illinois L 55 - 90 1% -20  0% 1 - 9 D -11 D- -7 F B+ C D -6 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Texas Southern W 84 - 73 72% +8  92% 2 - 9 1 - 0 C -1 D- -6 B- D- C+ B +4 B- D+ A-
 Mon, Jan 5 336 Prairie View L 85 - 89 79% -5  9% 2 - 10 1 - 1 F -18 D+ -4 F C- B- F -14 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 328 @Florida A&M L 59 - 67 57% -4  9% 2 - 11 1 - 2 F+ -16 F -16 F F D C -0 C F+ A
 Mon, Jan 12 227 @Bethune-Cookman W 77 - 73 31% -4  11% 3 - 11 2 - 2 C+ +3 C +0 F B+ B- B- +3 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 285 @Grambling St. W 71 - 53 43% +11  88% 4 - 11 3 - 2 B+ +14 D+ -2 C F C+ A+ +16 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 74 - 75 73% +2  72% 4 - 12 3 - 3 D- -13 D- -7 F A+ F+ D -6 C F+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 69 96% +5  95% 5 - 12 4 - 3 F+ -16 D -6 F B- C- F+ -10 F+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 31 351 @Alcorn St. L 73 - 78 66% -1  34% 5 - 13 4 - 4 F+ -15 D+ -2 F D B F -13 F D B+
 Mon, Feb 2 343 @Jackson St. W 96 - 91 OT 62% +11  97% 6 - 13 5 - 4 C- -4 C+ +3 C- F+ A D- -7 F D+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 305 Alabama A&M W 81 - 68 70% +8  98% 7 - 13 6 - 4 C +2 B +7 B- B+ B D+ -4 C+ F F
 Mon, Feb 9 316 Alabama St. W 69 - 68 74% +0  52% 8 - 13 7 - 4 D- -12 D- -7 F D- A D+ -5 C- F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 336 @Prairie View W 83 - 80 60%
 Mon, Feb 16 309 @Texas Southern W 78 - 77 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 285 Grambling St. W 73 - 69 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 328 Florida A&M W 78 - 70 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 227 Bethune-Cookman W 76 - 75 52%
 Tue, Mar 3 316 @Alabama St. W 76 - 75 53%
 Thu, Mar 5 305 @Alabama A&M L 72 - 73 47%
Totals 12 - 16 11 - 7 -6 D+ -4 D C C C- -2 D D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D D+ D 37% 29% 34% D D C C- C C C+ D C C- C- C- F+ D- 35% 20% 46% C+ D D+ D D+ B- D- D- F+
1.04 55% 33% 32% -4 -1 0.92 30% 1.0 .31 17% .32 68% .22 1.12 60% 39% 39% +4 0 1.10 32% 1.1 .36 19% .37 76% .25
Nov
3		 Arkansas C- C- F A+ C+ 26% 33% 41% F C- C A- B- B+ A+ F C D+ F B- B C+ 40% 23% 37% B- C+ C- B C+ C- F F F
0.95 53% 11% 42% -5 -2 0.86 28% 1.4 .40 15% .35 46% .16 1.34 79% 36% 32% +7 0 1.15 36% 1.1 .41 11% .40 86% .35
Nov
5		 Marquette C+ C- C- C C- 56% 16% 27% A- C+ D+ B+ C A A+ D+ A+ D- F C- F+ F 33% 8% 59% B+ F B+ C- B- D- B- F C-
1.04 55% 33% 33% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.1 .30 16% .44 72% .32 1.26 75% 40% 39% +10 +1 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .29 80% .23
Nov
18		 Washington C+ C F C+ C- 34% 37% 29% D+ C- B+ A+ A+ D- A+ D A+ A- B- A- C+ A 36% 38% 26% A- A D+ C D+ B- F B F
1.01 57% 26% 33% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.3 .43 19% .46 65% .30 1.07 57% 32% 33% -3 -2 0.91 39% 1.1 .43 17% .65 72% .47
Nov
21		 San Jose St. F C C F F+ 33% 24% 43% D- F+ D F F D D+ B C- D+ C+ C F F+ 30% 36% 34% B+ D F+ C+ D A+ F C- F
0.95 61% 38% 26% -4 -1 0.93 29% 0.7 .21 20% .25 79% .20 1.15 54% 38% 47% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 22% .53 76% .40
Nov
29		 Northwestern St. C- D F A+ C- 56% 14% 30% B+ C C+ D- C- D- F F F C A+ F F D+ 36% 22% 42% D D+ F+ D- F B+ B A- B+
1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13 1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18
Dec
8		 Texas D+ C D A+ B- 46% 32% 22% C B- B F F F A+ F B+ D+ D+ C- F F+ 42% 16% 42% D+ F+ C+ F F B+ F F F
0.96 57% 31% 45% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.3 .08 20% .43 64% .28 1.33 67% 43% 44% +11 +1 1.26 38% 1.6 .58 18% .55 91% .50
Dec
10		 Texas St. C- B C- A+ B+ 26% 31% 43% F C+ C C+ C+ F C- D D+ C- D- D F F 53% 15% 32% F F C A+ A+ A F B- F
1.05 64% 35% 43% +7 -2 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 24% .31 68% .22 1.08 64% 43% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 24% .51 74% .38
Dec
16		 California Baptist D+ F F B+ D 38% 24% 38% C- D B+ B- B F B C+ B C D- C- B D+ 25% 10% 65% C+ C- B B B D+ F F F
0.97 42% 25% 37% -7 0 0.86 32% 1.0 .32 20% .36 75% .27 1.08 62% 40% 30% -2 0 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 16% .45 81% .36
Dec
21		 Baylor D+ A+ D- F F+ 7% 61% 31% F F C A+ A+ A- D+ F F+ F F D+ F F 19% 35% 46% A- F D C D+ F F+ D F+
0.96 75% 33% 24% -6 -7 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 13% .23 57% .13 1.59 82% 45% 54% +21 -3 1.37 42% 1.1 .48 6% .39 77% .30
Dec
29		 Illinois D- C- F F F 31% 44% 25% D F B+ B B+ C C- B+ C- D F A+ F F 30% 11% 59% C F F B F A+ D F F+
0.85 53% 21% 21% -14 -3 0.67 31% 1.0 .31 12% .14 75% .11 1.39 93% 20% 44% +18 +1 1.39 55% 1.1 .62 22% .36 89% .32
Jan
3		 Texas Southern D- B+ A- C+ B+ 37% 29% 33% F B- F A+ D- C+ A+ F B+ B F B+ A+ C+ 30% 34% 36% A B- A+ F D+ A- F F F
1.07 68% 47% 35% +7 -1 1.14 16% 1.8 .29 15% .51 62% .31 0.93 71% 31% 24% -4 -2 0.89 18% 1.8 .32 22% .52 78% .41
Jan
5		 Prairie View D+ F F A+ F 49% 24% 27% C- F C- C- C- B- A+ A A+ F F F D F 33% 41% 26% B+ F C F F B- D+ B C-
1.12 46% 25% 46% -4 0 0.94 36% 1.0 .36 17% .56 80% .44 1.17 67% 55% 36% +10 -3 1.17 23% 1.9 .42 17% .38 71% .27
Jan
10		 Florida A&M F D A+ F F 32% 29% 39% F F C- F F D A+ F A C D A+ B C+ 38% 14% 48% F+ C F C- F+ A F F F
0.88 54% 58% 19% -4 -2 0.90 31% 0.5 .15 21% .51 67% .34 1.00 63% 17% 30% -4 +1 0.95 38% 0.8 .31 27% .41 85% .35
Jan
12		 Bethune-Cookman C F F D+ F 49% 21% 30% C F B B B+ B- A+ C+ A+ B- D- F B- F+ 43% 17% 40% D F+ B- A+ A+ A- D- F F
1.06 42% 18% 31% -13 +1 0.77 37% 1.2 .46 14% .48 73% .35 1.01 65% 50% 32% +4 +1 1.11 25% 0.5 .13 22% .37 81% .30
Jan
17		 Grambling St. D+ D- B- B+ C- 46% 10% 44% B C D- F F C+ B+ F C- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 53% 9% 38% F A+ F D+ F+ A+ F B F
1.02 50% 40% 38% -1 +2 1.04 28% 0.6 .17 19% .39 59% .23 0.76 28% 33% 23% -23 +3 0.62 35% 1.0 .35 33% .68 69% .47
Jan
24		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D- A C+ F F 30% 28% 41% F F B+ A A+ F+ A B- A D B C C- C 31% 18% 51% D+ C A F F+ C- F B F
1.07 71% 38% 16% -7 -2 0.85 42% 1.4 .58 19% .46 77% .36 1.08 50% 38% 35% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.8 .34 17% .49 71% .35
Jan
28		 Mississippi Valley D A A F D- 27% 49% 24% F F F+ A+ B- C- A+ A A+ F+ B- F D F 18% 41% 41% B F+ F C+ D C- A+ A A+
1.15 75% 50% 9% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.7 .48 17% .51 83% .42 1.00 50% 48% 35% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 20% .14 63% .09
Jan
31		 Alcorn St. D+ C B F F 36% 20% 43% D- F C- D- D B A+ D A F F+ F F F 40% 9% 51% F F C F+ D B+ F F+ F
1.12 63% 44% 26% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 15% .47 69% .33 1.20 67% 75% 43% +14 +2 1.33 26% 1.0 .26 23% .32 75% .24
Feb
2		 Jackson St. C+ C- D+ B C- 46% 20% 34% C C- C F F+ A A+ F A D- B+ C- F F 26% 26% 48% C+ F C- D+ D+ F+ F C- F
1.19 61% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 36% 0.8 .27 11% .48 65% .31 1.13 47% 40% 43% +4 -2 1.07 28% 1.1 .30 15% .45 77% .35
Feb
7		 Alabama A&M B B- B- B+ B- 45% 20% 35% C B- A+ D+ B+ B B- B+ B D+ A- A+ F C 35% 37% 28% A C+ C- F F F F A F
1.24 65% 40% 39% +6 +1 1.16 43% 0.9 .40 14% .37 76% .28 1.04 44% 24% 46% -5 -2 0.87 26% 1.4 .35 12% .51 66% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Alabama St. D- A- F D F 27% 35% 39% F F D D- D- A A C A D+ D A- F D- 24% 43% 33% A+ C- F F F A+ F B F
1.05 69% 18% 32% -5 -3 0.86 30% 1.0 .30 14% .44 76% .33 1.03 60% 28% 43% +1 -4 0.95 41% 1.2 .49 26% .47 65% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.1 5.3 2.6 11.3 1st
2nd 0.8 10.6 16.0 6.7 0.5 34.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.5 13.2 3.9 0.3 24.0 3rd
4th 0.9 9.9 2.8 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 3.7 3.5 0.2 7.4 5th
6th 0.2 4.0 0.5 4.6 6th
7th 1.1 1.3 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 3.0 10.0 21.2 27.1 23.1 12.3 3.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 85.0% 2.6    1.6 1.0 0.0
13-5 43.0% 5.3    1.7 2.9 0.6 0.0
12-6 13.5% 3.1    0.3 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 3.6 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.1% 35.5% 35.5% 15.1 0.1 0.7 0.3 2.0
13-5 12.3% 25.5% 25.5% 15.9 0.3 2.9 9.1
12-6 23.1% 24.3% 24.3% 16.0 0.1 5.5 17.5
11-7 27.1% 18.4% 18.4% 16.0 5.0 22.1
10-8 21.2% 14.9% 14.9% 16.0 3.2 18.0
9-9 10.0% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 1.2 8.8
8-10 3.0% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 2.8
7-11 0.3% 0.3
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 15.9 80.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 15.1 9.2 67.0 23.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 0.3%