Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#199
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#218
Pace77.9#25
Improvement+0.0#187

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#248
First Shot-4.3#291
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#95
Layup/Dunks+0.9#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#263
Freethrows-1.4#261
Improvement-1.6#306

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#155
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#167
Layups/Dunks+1.7#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#89
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#281
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement+1.7#58
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.4% 36.2% 26.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 14.5 15.2
.500 or above 62.5% 84.4% 61.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 95.5% 92.3%
Conference Champion 47.9% 60.2% 47.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.9% 3.5% 7.1%
First Round24.0% 35.0% 23.3%
Second Round0.6% 1.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 6.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 31 - 9
Quad 415 - 616 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 20 @Arkansas L 77-109 4%     0 - 1 -13.8 +2.7 -12.1
  Wed, Nov 5 88 @Marquette L 82-100 14%     0 - 2 -9.0 +4.8 -11.7
  Tue, Nov 18 49 @Washington L 93-99 2OT 8%     0 - 3 +7.6 +3.3 +5.8
  Fri, Nov 21 182 @San Jose St. L 66-80 36%     0 - 4 -12.6 -5.8 -6.9
  Sat, Nov 29 302 @Northwestern St. W 75-73 59%     1 - 4 -2.8 -0.8 -1.9
  Mon, Dec 8 46 @Texas L 70-86 6%    
  Wed, Dec 10 237 @Texas St. L 71-72 46%    
  Tue, Dec 16 131 @California Baptist L 70-77 25%    
  Sun, Dec 21 34 @Baylor L 72-90 4%    
  Mon, Dec 29 15 @Illinois L 68-91 1%    
  Wed, Dec 31 334 @Alcorn St. W 79-74 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 305 Texas Southern W 82-73 78%    
  Mon, Jan 5 322 Prairie View W 83-73 81%    
  Sat, Jan 10 343 @Florida A&M W 79-73 71%    
  Mon, Jan 12 220 @Bethune-Cookman L 74-76 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 284 @Grambling St. W 72-71 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-72 89%    
  Mon, Jan 26 365 Mississippi Valley W 86-63 98%    
  Sat, Jan 31 334 @Alcorn St. W 79-74 68%    
  Mon, Feb 2 312 @Jackson St. W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 272 Alabama A&M W 75-69 71%    
  Mon, Feb 9 276 Alabama St. W 81-74 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 322 @Prairie View W 80-76 63%    
  Mon, Feb 16 305 @Texas Southern W 79-76 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 284 Grambling St. W 75-68 73%    
  Thu, Feb 26 343 Florida A&M W 82-70 85%    
  Sat, Feb 28 220 Bethune-Cookman W 77-73 64%    
  Tue, Mar 3 276 @Alabama St. W 78-77 52%    
  Thu, Mar 5 272 @Alabama A&M W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.3 10.0 11.3 9.6 6.3 3.2 47.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 5.1 6.3 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 3.5 1.2 0.1 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 2.9 1.1 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 3.3 4.8 7.2 9.7 12.0 13.4 13.8 12.4 9.7 6.3 3.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
17-1 99.9% 6.3    6.3 0.1
16-2 98.9% 9.6    9.1 0.5
15-3 91.4% 11.3    9.4 1.9 0.1
14-4 72.3% 10.0    6.0 3.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 39.7% 5.3    1.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 11.4% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.2% 47.2 36.0 8.7 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.2% 58.1% 58.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3
17-1 6.3% 49.5% 49.5% 14.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.3 3.2
16-2 9.7% 42.5% 42.5% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 0.9 5.6
15-3 12.4% 36.2% 36.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.8 7.9
14-4 13.8% 30.0% 30.0% 15.5 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 9.7
13-5 13.4% 24.4% 24.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 10.1
12-6 12.0% 20.2% 20.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 9.6
11-7 9.7% 15.3% 15.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 8.2
10-8 7.2% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9 6.3
9-9 4.8% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.5 4.4
8-10 3.3% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.2 3.1
7-11 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.4% 26.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 8.3 12.6 73.6 0.0%