Florida A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.7 328
Expected Predictive Rating -10.0 321
Pace 69.6 153
Improvement +1.6 120

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- #348 D+ D- F D D+
Defense D+ #274 D C+ B- D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 228 57% 189 -1.2 227
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 104 33% 317 +0.3 164
Three Pointers 39% 224 31% 298 -2.8 280
1st FG Attempt 0.94 297 -3.7 297
Second Chance 27.7% 262 0.81 362 0.23 342
Turnovers 21.9% 361
Freethrows 0.29 238 66% 345 0.19 295
Total Offense -7.5 348

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 78 60% 249 -3.4 296
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 266 41% 283 +0.6 141
Three Pointers 40% 222 38% 334 -1.7 268
1st FG Attempt 1.11 316 -4.5 316
Second Chance 32.4% 260 0.93 51 0.30 152
Turnovers 18.7% 78
Freethrows 0.34 287 77% 354 0.26 318
Total Defense -3.1 274

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.6 265 +0.7 290
Shot Type Accuracy -3.1 296 +3.7 315
Possession Length 17.6 219 16.6 57
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 203 0.24 350
Improvement +0.2 #164 +1.4 #109

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2% 3% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 59% 79% 43%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 5% 3%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Away) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 62 @South Florida L 67 - 102 3% -15  17% 0 - 1 F -23 F -12 F B- F D -7 D- C B+
 Sat, Nov 8 154 Kennesaw St. L 72 - 92 23% -9  10% 0 - 2 F -23 F -14 F D C+ D -6 F A C
 Tue, Nov 11 52 @Central Florida L 60 - 97 2% -22  0% 0 - 3 F -23 F -15 D F F D -6 F D- A+
 Mon, Nov 17 36 @Georgia L 57 - 87 1% -20  1% 0 - 4 D- -13 F -16 C F F B +5 A D- B
 Tue, Dec 2 308 @Jacksonville L 82 - 85 OT 32% +0  42% 0 - 5 D -9 C +0 A+ F F D- -9 D- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 308 Jacksonville W 72 - 65 55% +9  99% 1 - 5 D+ -5 D+ -3 C- F B+ C -1 D- A+ C+
 Fri, Dec 19 214 @Tarleton St. L 54 - 78 16% -14  19% 1 - 6 F -24 F -24 F F F B- +2 C F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 50 @TCU L 56 - 80 2% -5  43% 1 - 7 D -10 D- -6 B- F A+ D -6 C C- B-
 Sun, Dec 28 131 @Georgia Tech L 65 - 89 8% -17  0% 1 - 8 F -19 F -10 D F C+ D- -7 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 227 @Bethune-Cookman L 83 - 87 17% -4  4% 1 - 9 0 - 1 C- -5 B +7 B- C+ C F -12 F C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 264 Southern W 67 - 59 43% +4  81% 2 - 9 1 - 1 C -1 F+ -9 F+ D+ F A- +9 C+ A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 285 Grambling St. W 91 - 84 48% +3  69% 3 - 9 2 - 1 C- -3 A +11 A A F F -15 F+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 313 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71 - 67 33% +1  65% 4 - 9 3 - 1 C- -2 D+ -3 B- C- F C+ +1 C+ F+ B-
 Mon, Jan 19 365 @Mississippi Valley W 62 - 48 83% +13  99% 5 - 9 4 - 1 D+ -7 F -16 F D+ F A +10 A- A F+
 Sat, Jan 24 351 Alcorn St. W 66 - 58 70% -0  42% 6 - 9 5 - 1 D -8 F -15 C- C+ F B+ +7 C+ B A+
 Mon, Jan 26 343 Jackson St. L 65 - 66 67% +3  85% 6 - 10 5 - 2 F+ -16 F -11 F+ F C+ D -6 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 305 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 72 31% -8  0% 6 - 11 5 - 3 D- -12 D -4 D D F D- -9 F+ B- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 316 @Alabama St. L 66 - 79 34% -3  32% 6 - 12 5 - 4 F -20 F -13 F+ F F D -6 F A A
 Sat, Feb 7 309 Texas Southern L 57 - 62 55% -4  14% 6 - 13 5 - 5 F+ -17 F -18 F F F C+ +1 F+ A A+
 Mon, Feb 9 336 Prairie View W 100 - 96 64% +13  94% 7 - 13 6 - 5 D -10 C- -0 A- B F F+ -11 F D+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 343 @Jackson St. L 75 - 77 44%
 Mon, Feb 16 351 @Alcorn St. L 73 - 74 48%
 Thu, Feb 19 305 Alabama A&M W 70 - 69 53%
 Thu, Feb 19 316 Alabama St. W 73 - 71 57%
 Thu, Feb 26 264 @Southern L 70 - 78 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 285 @Grambling St. L 64 - 71 26%
 Thu, Mar 5 227 Bethune-Cookman L 70 - 74 35%
Totals 10 - 17 9 - 9 -11 D- -8 D+ D- F D+ -3 D C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- C D D D+ 37% 24% 39% D+ D+ D+ F D- F C- F+ D D+ C- D+ D- D 43% 18% 40% D+ D D+ B C+ B- D+ F D
0.98 57% 33% 31% -3 -1 0.94 28% 0.8 .23 22% .29 66% .19 1.13 60% 41% 38% +4 +1 1.11 32% 0.9 .30 19% .34 77% .22
Nov
3		 South Florida F B- F F F 42% 17% 40% B+ F D+ A+ B- F A+ C A D B- A+ F D- 55% 2% 43% F+ D- F A C B+ F F F
0.84 59% 11% 14% -16 +1 0.71 28% 1.3 .35 26% .44 69% .30 1.27 54% 0% 41% +1 +4 1.12 49% 0.9 .46 19% .61 85% .52
Nov
8		 Kennesaw St. F F F F F 49% 20% 31% C F C F D C+ A C- A- D F C- F F 47% 15% 38% C- F A+ F A C D- C- D-
0.89 41% 25% 22% -16 +1 0.71 30% 0.8 .23 15% .48 73% .35 1.14 72% 38% 40% +10 +1 1.25 15% 1.5 .22 17% .42 71% .30
Nov
11		 Central Florida F D+ C- F+ D- 42% 16% 42% B D D- F F F A- F C- D B- A+ F F 56% 16% 28% F F F B- D- A+ C+ C C+
0.81 52% 38% 29% -6 +1 0.92 18% 0.3 .05 21% .38 55% .21 1.30 56% 22% 69% +11 +2 1.28 47% 1.1 .53 21% .27 75% .21
Nov
17		 Georgia F F+ A- C- C 39% 20% 41% C+ C B- F F F B- F C- B F F A+ A+ 46% 10% 44% D+ A F A- D- B F F F
0.75 44% 44% 32% -5 0 0.91 36% 0.5 .17 33% .27 57% .16 1.14 82% 60% 5% -6 +2 0.94 53% 0.9 .47 17% .55 83% .46
Dec
2		 Jacksonville C A+ F A+ A+ 33% 28% 39% F+ A+ F A+ F F F F F D- C A+ F+ D 39% 12% 49% D- D- D C D+ F C- B- C
1.11 83% 20% 62% +20 -1 1.39 8% 2.0 .16 23% .11 50% .05 1.15 57% 14% 38% 0 +1 1.03 33% 1.0 .33 12% .29 68% .20
Dec
17		 Jacksonville D+ B+ B- D+ C 39% 31% 31% F+ C- D+ F F B+ A+ F B C B+ A+ F D 49% 11% 40% F D- A- A+ A+ C+ D+ D D+
1.10 68% 40% 33% +4 -1 1.08 27% 0.4 .10 12% .51 59% .30 1.00 48% 0% 47% -1 +2 1.04 23% 0.6 .13 18% .30 75% .23
Dec
19		 Tarleton St. F F+ F F F 43% 13% 45% B F F D+ F F A- F C B- A F F C+ 61% 20% 18% F C D F F A+ F+ B- D-
0.70 50% 17% 19% -16 +1 0.72 23% 1.0 .23 30% .44 63% .27 1.00 43% 50% 44% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.3 .46 26% .40 74% .29
Dec
21		 TCU D- D- A+ D+ B 32% 34% 34% F B- F F F A+ C+ F D- D D A+ D C 36% 16% 48% C C F A- C- B- F+ F F
0.86 47% 56% 31% +1 -2 1.00 13% 0.5 .06 15% .27 47% .13 1.23 67% 13% 38% +2 0 1.06 42% 0.9 .39 17% .41 86% .35
Dec
28		 Georgia Tech F C- C+ F D+ 25% 27% 48% D D C+ F F C+ D F F D- F D- F F 67% 16% 18% F F F C F A+ F F F
0.88 53% 38% 28% -6 -2 0.87 30% 0.6 .18 15% .25 38% .10 1.20 70% 43% 63% +16 +3 1.40 44% 1.1 .48 27% .41 77% .31
Jan
3		 Bethune-Cookman B B D A- B+ 35% 29% 35% F B- F+ A+ C+ C B A+ A F F D- B+ F 41% 24% 35% C+ F B+ F+ C+ F+ F F F
1.16 61% 33% 39% +2 -1 1.04 24% 1.6 .39 15% .36 82% .30 1.21 80% 42% 29% +8 0 1.16 22% 1.2 .26 14% .55 76% .42
Jan
10		 Southern F+ B- F F+ F 38% 14% 48% B F+ B F D+ F B A+ A A- C+ F A+ C+ 32% 29% 39% C+ C+ C A+ A+ A- F C+ F
1.00 63% 17% 30% -4 +1 0.95 38% 0.8 .31 27% .41 85% .35 0.88 54% 58% 19% -4 -2 0.90 31% 0.5 .15 21% .51 67% .34
Jan
12		 Grambling St. A A+ A+ C- A+ 28% 21% 51% F+ A B- A+ A F A+ A A+ F D+ C+ D- F+ 50% 18% 32% D- F+ C F F F+ F F F
1.26 77% 70% 33% +12 -1 1.23 37% 1.3 .48 23% .47 81% .38 1.16 60% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 28% 1.4 .40 17% .43 85% .36
Jan
17		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D+ A+ F C B- 38% 19% 43% D+ B- C D+ C- F A+ F B+ C+ D- B- B+ C 33% 28% 40% B- C+ A F F+ B- D- F F
1.08 81% 13% 33% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 24% .48 67% .32 1.02 64% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.95 18% 2.0 .36 20% .36 84% .30
Jan
19		 Mississippi Valley F C- D F F 33% 20% 47% D+ F C D D+ F D- B+ D A A C A+ B+ 15% 45% 40% A A- B+ A+ A F+ C+ C- C+
0.96 60% 33% 29% -4 0 0.93 37% 1.1 .40 30% .33 80% .26 0.75 43% 38% 21% -10 -5 0.72 20% 0.5 .10 17% .26 71% .19
Jan
24		 Alcorn St. F B- F C- D+ 53% 10% 38% B C- D A C+ F D F F+ B+ B+ F A+ B 52% 19% 29% F C+ C A B A+ F+ D- F+
0.99 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 29% .30 64% .19 0.87 48% 67% 21% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.6 .16 26% .30 73% .22
Jan
26		 Jackson St. F A+ F F D- 25% 29% 46% F F+ D F F C+ C- F F D F A+ D D+ 21% 40% 40% A+ C F D+ F D+ F B+ F
1.05 92% 21% 27% -1 -2 0.96 31% 0.8 .26 15% .32 53% .17 1.06 67% 24% 35% -3 -4 0.88 38% 1.1 .41 18% .41 71% .29
Jan
31		 Alabama A&M D F F A+ D 41% 27% 32% D D B+ F D F A+ B A+ D- B- A+ F F+ 32% 23% 45% C F+ F+ A+ B- C- F F F
1.04 41% 27% 54% 0 -1 1.00 38% 0.6 .24 21% .48 75% .36 1.15 50% 20% 45% +1 -1 1.02 31% 0.7 .22 16% .44 91% .40
Feb
2		 Alabama St. F F A+ D F 47% 14% 39% B- F+ F F F F D+ C+ C- D B F F F 35% 25% 39% C+ F C- A+ A A C F+ D+
0.91 43% 57% 32% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 23% .32 78% .25 1.09 50% 54% 50% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.5 .14 23% .29 75% .22
Feb
7		 Texas Southern F F C- D+ F 30% 26% 44% F F A- F F F B+ D- B- C+ A+ F F F+ 46% 26% 28% D+ F+ D A+ A A+ A F B+
0.89 46% 36% 32% -6 -1 0.88 41% 0.3 .12 25% .44 67% .29 0.97 38% 67% 46% +4 0 1.09 30% 0.6 .17 23% .20 80% .16
Feb
9		 Prairie View C- B F A+ A 47% 27% 25% D+ A- C+ B B F A- F+ B- F+ D- A+ F F 52% 22% 26% F F C- D D+ A F A F
1.16 65% 20% 71% +13 0 1.27 39% 1.2 .45 27% .46 66% .30 1.12 64% 25% 43% +4 +1 1.11 24% 1.1 .27 21% .59 68% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 1st
2nd 0.4 2.7 1.6 0.1 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.7 4.4 0.4 8.6 3rd
4th 2.1 9.4 1.6 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.2 9.0 5.1 0.1 14.3 5th
6th 2.5 11.4 0.9 14.7 6th
7th 0.2 9.6 4.7 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 2.5 10.0 0.5 13.0 8th
9th 0.2 5.6 2.6 8.3 9th
10th 1.1 3.9 0.2 5.3 10th
11th 1.8 0.9 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 12th
Total 3.2 13.1 25.0 27.7 19.4 9.0 2.4 0.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 72.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 14.9% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 24.0% 24.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 2.4% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.3 2.2
11-7 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.8 8.2
10-8 19.4% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 1.2 18.3
9-9 27.7% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 1.4 26.3
8-10 25.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.6 24.5
7-11 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
6-12 3.2% 3.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 16.0 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.2%