Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
222 Southern 23.8%   16   1 - 8 0 - 0 14 - 15 13 - 6 -3.8      -3.0 248 -0.9 196 77.4 27 -6.9 270 0.0 1
245 Grambling St. 17.9%   4 - 7 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 6 -4.8      -3.8 274 -1.0 202 67.0 248 -3.4 222 0.0 1
269 Bethune-Cookman 14.2%   2 - 9 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 7 -5.9      -2.8 244 -3.1 278 70.4 156 -8.1 292 0.0 1
281 Alabama St. 12.3%   2 - 9 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 7 -6.5      -1.5 207 -4.9 328 68.9 198 -7.8 289 0.0 1
293 Alabama A&M 11.0%   4 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -7.1      -5.1 306 -2.0 236 65.0 300 -3.9 228 0.0 1
320 Prairie View 5.0%   1 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 17 9 - 8 -9.5      -5.2 312 -4.3 316 76.9 32 -11.5 332 0.0 1
324 Jackson St. 4.5%   1 - 11 0 - 0 10 - 21 9 - 9 -9.8      -6.6 337 -3.2 288 72.6 97 -11.1 328 0.0 1
327 Texas Southern 4.1%   0 - 9 0 - 0 9 - 18 8 - 9 -9.9      -5.8 327 -4.1 312 73.2 80 -14.7 344 0.0 1
337 Alcorn St. 3.5%   1 - 10 0 - 0 10 - 21 9 - 10 -11.0      -6.3 334 -4.7 325 74.5 56 -7.8 287 0.0 1
341 Florida A&M 2.4%   1 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 10 -11.5      -7.5 345 -4.0 310 71.6 119 -11.9 333 0.0 1
351 Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.2%   1 - 10 0 - 0 8 - 21 7 - 10 -12.8      -7.7 346 -5.1 330 79.7 10 -6.4 259 0.0 1
365 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 12 0 - 0 2 - 29 2 - 15 -23.1      -14.1 365 -9.0 364 70.0 170 -19.5 359 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Dec 21 293 Alabama A&M 66 235 Chattanooga 73   
Sun, Dec 21 27 Baylor 111 222 Southern 67   
Sun, Dec 21 341 Florida A&M 56 53 TCU 80   
Mon, Dec 22 204 Abilene Christian 75 327 Texas Southern 68   
Mon, Dec 22 281 Alabama St. 67 72 Memphis 88   
Mon, Dec 22 39 LSU 104 320 Prairie View 90   
Mon, Dec 22 2 Arizona 107 269 Bethune-Cookman 71   
Mon, Dec 22 365 Mississippi Valley 51 62 West Virginia 86   
Tue, Dec 23 245 Grambling St. 63 31 Ohio St. 89   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 28 341 Florida A&M 65 129 Georgia Tech 82 93%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 2.7 45.6 17.3 11.2 7.2 5.9 4.1 3.3 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.0
Grambling St. 4.3 16.0 16.9 14.4 11.8 10.6 8.9 7.3 5.9 4.1 2.9 1.3 0.1
Bethune-Cookman 4.6 13.6 14.7 13.8 12.4 11.0 9.7 8.0 6.4 5.1 3.4 1.9 0.1
Alabama St. 4.4 13.7 15.8 14.7 12.8 10.9 9.6 7.9 5.9 4.4 2.8 1.5 0.1
Alabama A&M 4.5 14.8 15.6 13.5 11.9 10.6 9.2 7.9 6.2 4.8 3.4 1.9 0.2
Prairie View 6.2 5.0 7.6 9.0 9.8 10.4 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.4 8.7 5.5 0.5
Jackson St. 5.7 6.6 9.4 10.7 10.9 11.1 10.7 10.4 9.5 8.9 6.7 4.7 0.4
Texas Southern 6.9 3.3 5.4 6.9 8.0 9.4 10.3 11.3 11.3 11.9 11.4 10.1 0.6
Alcorn St. 6.1 6.5 8.1 9.0 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.3 9.8 8.7 6.7 0.8
Florida A&M 8.0 1.7 3.1 4.1 5.2 6.1 7.8 9.4 11.3 14.0 16.7 18.3 2.3
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8.3 0.8 2.1 3.0 4.4 5.9 7.5 9.8 11.8 15.1 17.9 19.2 2.6
Mississippi Valley 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 3.0 11.5 84.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.6 5.8 8.4 11.0 13.6 14.5 13.5 11.3 7.9 4.6 1.8
Grambling St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 5.5 9.4 12.1 14.5 15.6 14.0 11.4 6.9 3.6 1.3 0.2
Bethune-Cookman 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.9 4.0 6.4 10.2 13.2 15.0 15.2 13.0 9.7 6.0 3.0 0.9 0.2
Alabama St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.4 5.9 9.7 13.0 15.2 15.8 13.8 10.4 6.3 3.0 1.0 0.2
Alabama A&M 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.5 9.5 12.7 14.7 14.8 13.3 10.1 6.3 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1
Prairie View 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.5 8.9 12.6 14.7 14.9 13.4 10.8 7.3 4.4 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Jackson St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.1 7.5 10.9 13.6 14.6 14.3 12.2 9.0 5.7 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.7 8.0 11.3 13.4 14.9 14.3 11.4 8.7 5.4 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.9 8.9 11.9 13.5 14.1 12.7 10.7 7.6 5.0 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 2.5 5.1 8.9 11.9 14.2 15.1 13.1 10.8 7.6 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.3 9.2 13.1 16.0 16.0 13.7 10.2 6.7 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 2 - 16 20.2 29.8 23.9 14.3 7.2 3.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 45.6% 33.9 8.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Grambling St. 16.0% 8.8 5.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 13.6% 7.6 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 13.7% 7.6 4.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 14.8% 8.2 4.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Prairie View 5.0% 2.3 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 6.6% 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Southern 3.3% 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 6.5% 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.9 17.7 76.0 0.0%
Grambling St. 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.0 12.9 82.1 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 12.6 85.8 0.0%
Alabama St. 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 11.1 87.7 0.0%
Alabama A&M 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 9.6 89.0 0.0%
Prairie View 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.9 95.0 0.0%
Jackson St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 4.4 95.5 0.0%
Texas Southern 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0 95.9 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 3.4 96.5 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.3 97.6 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 24.0% 11.7% 18.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 17.9% 7.9% 14.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 14.2% 10.0% 9.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 12.3% 8.9% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 11.0% 7.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 5.0% 4.4% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 4.5% 4.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 4.1% 3.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.5% 3.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 68.2% 0.7 31.8 68.2
2nd Round 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0