Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
246 Southern 25.7%   16   4 - 11 3 - 2 -4.6      -4.7 300 +0.1 164 75.7 34 -6.4 268 -5.5 4
269 Bethune-Cookman 18.4%   6 - 11 4 - 1 -6.1      -3.1 261 -3.0 268 71.4 110 -5.6 253 -3.4 3
287 Grambling St. 10.6%   6 - 10 2 - 3 -7.2      -5.6 314 -1.7 228 68.7 190 -6.4 269 -11.1 8
301 Alabama A&M 9.9%   7 - 8 3 - 2 -8.0      -5.4 309 -2.6 257 66.2 258 -7.0 275 -10.6 7
311 Alabama St. 6.3%   4 - 13 2 - 3 -8.7      -4.0 283 -4.6 307 71.3 111 -11.8 336 -15.5 11
313 Florida A&M 8.2%   5 - 9 4 - 1 -9.2      -6.1 324 -3.1 272 69.7 163 -6.1 261 -1.1 1
317 Prairie View 5.8%   4 - 11 3 - 3 -9.7      -5.6 315 -4.0 294 76.7 26 -10.3 328 -9.5 5
325 Jackson St. 6.3%   5 - 13 4 - 1 -10.3      -4.5 295 -5.7 335 75.1 41 -7.5 286 -2.3 2
334 Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.8%   4 - 13 3 - 3 -10.9      -5.4 310 -5.5 327 77.2 22 -8.3 303 -9.8 6
335 Texas Southern 2.5%   2 - 13 2 - 4 -11.1      -5.8 321 -5.3 323 73.2 69 -17.4 356 -14.8 10
347 Alcorn St. 2.4%   3 - 14 2 - 3 -12.2      -6.7 334 -5.5 329 71.6 104 -10.0 326 -11.3 9
365 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 19 0 - 6 -24.2      -16.2 365 -8.0 357 68.1 210 -25.3 365 -25.3 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Jan 19 301 Alabama A&M 73 311 Alabama St. 69   
Mon, Jan 19 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff 82 269 Bethune-Cookman 87   
Mon, Jan 19 347 Alcorn St. 76 317 Prairie View 75   
Mon, Jan 19 325 Jackson St. 94 335 Texas Southern 89   
Mon, Jan 19 313 Florida A&M 62 365 Mississippi Valley 48   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 311 Alabama St. 78 317 Prairie View 80 58%   
Sat, Jan 24 269 Bethune-Cookman 83 325 Jackson St. 76 75%   
Sat, Jan 24 301 Alabama A&M 74 335 Texas Southern 73 50%   
Sat, Jan 24 347 Alcorn St. 71 313 Florida A&M 77 72%   
Sat, Jan 24 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff 75 246 Southern 84 81%   
Mon, Jan 26 301 Alabama A&M 74 317 Prairie View 75 55%   
Mon, Jan 26 313 Florida A&M 79 325 Jackson St. 75 65%   
Mon, Jan 26 311 Alabama St. 77 335 Texas Southern 78 52%   
Mon, Jan 26 347 Alcorn St. 72 269 Bethune-Cookman 81 81%   
Mon, Jan 26 365 Mississippi Valley 59 246 Southern 82 97%   
Tue, Jan 27 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff 73 287 Grambling St. 80 74%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 2.5 44.2 21.2 12.1 7.8 5.3 3.5 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2
Bethune-Cookman 3.2 27.0 21.8 15.6 11.2 8.1 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.5
Grambling St. 6.1 3.9 7.4 9.6 11.1 11.9 11.5 10.7 10.4 9.3 8.3 5.9 0.0
Alabama A&M 4.7 13.2 13.8 12.9 12.6 10.9 10.1 8.1 6.9 5.6 4.0 1.9
Alabama St. 7.1 2.2 4.4 6.0 7.5 9.6 10.5 11.2 12.2 12.9 13.1 10.4 0.0
Florida A&M 4.3 15.3 16.2 14.8 12.5 10.3 8.8 7.3 5.7 4.5 3.1 1.5
Prairie View 5.8 4.4 8.3 11.2 11.9 12.8 12.0 11.0 9.9 8.3 6.5 3.8 0.0
Jackson St. 3.8 20.1 17.7 15.1 12.7 10.2 8.0 6.1 4.6 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 6.7 1.7 4.4 7.0 9.2 11.5 12.9 13.2 12.7 11.9 9.7 5.9 0.0
Texas Southern 8.6 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.6 5.5 7.0 8.5 11.2 13.7 18.4 27.8 0.1
Alcorn St. 7.3 2.1 3.8 5.5 7.3 8.8 9.4 10.5 12.1 13.3 14.6 12.5 0.1
Mississippi Valley 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 99.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 12 - 6 13 - 15 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 7.1 11.9 17.1 20.0 18.7 12.9 6.4 1.6
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 6 14 - 16 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.8 11.0 16.7 20.5 18.6 13.9 7.4 2.4 0.5
Grambling St. 9 - 8 13 - 16 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 7.7 12.7 18.3 20.3 17.5 11.8 5.6 1.8 0.3
Alabama A&M 10 - 8 14 - 14 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.5 12.7 18.0 18.9 16.7 11.9 6.5 2.7 0.8 0.1
Alabama St. 8 - 9 10 - 20 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.1 11.8 17.8 20.0 18.7 12.9 6.7 2.8 0.8 0.1
Florida A&M 10 - 7 12 - 15 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.0 11.2 16.4 18.8 17.8 14.0 8.1 3.5 1.0 0.2
Prairie View 9 - 8 11 - 16 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.5 11.8 17.8 20.8 19.8 13.8 6.2 2.0 0.4
Jackson St. 11 - 7 12 - 19 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.9 8.8 15.0 19.2 18.9 15.4 9.8 5.0 1.9 0.5 0.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8 - 9 10 - 19 0.0 0.6 2.9 8.5 16.3 22.4 21.9 15.5 8.2 3.0 0.7 0.1
Texas Southern 7 - 10 8 - 19 0.5 2.6 6.9 12.9 19.2 20.0 17.3 11.7 5.9 2.1 0.6 0.1
Alcorn St. 8 - 10 9 - 21 0.0 0.6 2.7 7.3 13.2 18.3 19.9 16.5 11.8 6.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 1 - 16 1 - 30 40.6 36.0 16.7 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 44.2% 28.8 10.9 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 27.0% 15.2 8.1 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Grambling St. 3.9% 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 13.2% 6.3 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 2.2% 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 15.3% 7.9 4.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 4.4% 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 20.1% 10.8 6.2 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.7% 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 2.1% 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 0.8 3.3 21.4 74.3 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 16.6 81.6 0.0%
Grambling St. 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 9.8 89.4 0.0%
Alabama A&M 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 9.5 90.1 0.0%
Alabama St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 6.2 93.7 0.0%
Florida A&M 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 7.9 91.8 0.0%
Prairie View 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 5.7 94.2 0.0%
Jackson St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 6.3 93.7 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 3.8 96.2 0.0%
Texas Southern 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5 97.5 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 2.4 97.6 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 62.1% 0.6 37.9 62.1
2nd Round 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 25.7% 15.4% 19.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 18.4% 12.7% 12.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 10.6% 7.4% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 9.9% 7.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 6.3% 6.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 8.2% 6.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 5.8% 5.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 6.3% 5.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.8% 3.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 2.5% 2.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%