Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -22.2 365
Results Rating -22.5 365
Consistency 0.15 173
Pace 68.4 182
Improvement +2.0 117

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F 365 F F+ F D F
Defense F+ 354 D- F C F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 357 D- 51% 333 -7.5 361
2 Pt. Jumpers 70% 1 C 38% 165 +7.8 1
Three Pointers 30% 354 F 27% 365 -8.8 362
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -3.2 365 D- -5.4 346
1st FG Attempt F 0.85 361
Second Chance D- 23.7% 339 F+ 0.87 353 F+ 0.21 355
Opponents' Steals F+ 11.9% 352
Other Turnovers F+ 9.1% 343
Turnovers F 21.0% 355
Freethrows D 0.27 283 C- 71% 248 D 0.19 297
Total Offense F -14.4 365

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 53% 110 D+ 12.7% 283
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 40% 20 B- 3.8% 94
Three Pointers D- 75% 340 F 2.3% 360
Total C- 52% 257 C- 6.0% 224


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 253 D- 64% 327 +1.0 213
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 320 D 42% 330 -1.1 105
Three Pointers 48% 24 D 37% 307 +5.5 351
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 254 D- +4.8 344
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 338
Second Chance F 37.1% 357 F 1.27 365 F 0.47 365
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.1% 131
Other Turnovers D+ 6.7% 257
Turnovers C 16.9% 168
Freethrows F 0.40 360 D+ 74% 301 F 0.30 361
Total Defense F+ -7.8 354

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 62% 361 C- 9.7% 219
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 40% 349 D 2.6% 310
Three Pointers D- 90% 345 D 0.2% 321
Total F 69% 360 D 4.1% 304

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 305 16.4 34
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 203 0.23 336
Consistency 0.13 246 0.11 71
Improvement -0.1 188 +2.1 81

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 365 365 365
Results Rating Rank 365 364 363
Conference Record 2 - 16 2 - 16 3 - 15
Conference Finish 12 12 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Jackson St. (Away) - 12.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 10 - 9
Quad 42 - 202 - 29


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 123 @UAB L 55 - 106 1% -29  0% 0 - 1 F -45 F -25 F D- F F -11 D F D
 Fri, Nov 7 125 @Murray St. L 60 - 108 1% -21  3% 0 - 2 F -42 F -22 F F F F -16 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 118 @Hawaii L 56 - 88 1% -18  0% 0 - 3 F -26 F -10 F+ D- B+ F -18 F F D
 Fri, Nov 14 198 Utah Tech L 75 - 81 2OT 4% -3  17% 0 - 4 D -8 D- -7 C+ F C- C -1 C B- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 323 Manhattan L 73 - 80 14% -5  7% 0 - 5 F+ -18 D+ -4 D+ A+ F F -14 F F A
 Sat, Nov 22 329 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 70 - 86 10% -10  20% 0 - 6 F -24 F -14 F+ F B- F+ -9 C+ F F
 Tue, Nov 25 33 @Texas A&M L 84 - 120 0% -20  0% 0 - 7 F -19 C +0 A+ C F F -12 D F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 354 @Louisiana Monroe L 52 - 66 16% -4  13% 0 - 8 F -25 F -27 F F C C+ +0 D C B-
 Mon, Dec 8 98 @Kansas St. L 49 - 108 1% -32  0% 0 - 9 F -50 F -25 F F F F -20 F F B-
 Tue, Dec 16 219 Tarleton St. L 64 - 88 8% -9  4% 0 - 10 F -31 F -17 C+ D F F -12 F D B-
 Fri, Dec 19 77 @Florida St. L 49 - 96 1% -29  0% 0 - 11 F -36 F -25 F F F F+ -9 C- D- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 55 @West Virginia L 51 - 86 0% -20  0% 0 - 12 F -22 D -5 F B- A- F -24 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 44 @Oklahoma L 69 - 93 0% -9  18% 0 - 13 D -9 B +7 B+ C- C F -19 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 313 Alabama St. L 69 - 89 18% -9  1% 0 - 14 0 - 1 F -32 F -14 D F F F -18 F D+ A-
 Mon, Jan 5 304 Alabama A&M L 51 - 71 16% -10  11% 0 - 15 0 - 2 F -32 F -31 F F F C -0 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 322 @Prairie View L 69 - 70 9% +2  61% 0 - 16 0 - 3 D -8 F -10 D D F C+ +2 D A C
 Mon, Jan 12 301 @Texas Southern L 51 - 84 7% -18  0% 0 - 17 0 - 4 F -38 F -25 F C+ F F -14 F F A
 Sat, Jan 17 236 Bethune-Cookman L 63 - 79 9% -7  1% 0 - 18 0 - 5 F -23 F -11 F A- A+ F -13 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 315 Florida A&M L 48 - 62 18% -13  0% 0 - 19 0 - 6 F -27 F -27 F F C+ C -1 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 277 @Southern L 69 - 80 5% -5  3% 0 - 20 0 - 7 D- -14 D- -7 D F+ D+ D- -8 C- F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 332 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 70 - 78 23% -7  6% 0 - 21 0 - 8 F -23 F -15 D F F D- -8 C D D-
 Sat, Feb 7 345 Jackson St. L 81 - 97 27% -6  26% 0 - 22 0 - 9 F -32 F+ -9 D+ F B F -22 C- F C+
 Mon, Feb 9 350 Alcorn St. L 66 - 74 29% -12  0% 0 - 23 0 - 10 F -25 D -4 F C- C- F -22 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 14 304 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 72 7% -1  44% 0 - 24 0 - 11 D- -13 D- -8 F F+ D+ D -5 D F C-
 Mon, Feb 16 313 @Alabama St. L 55 - 92 8% -15  21% 0 - 25 0 - 12 F -43 F -24 F F B F -19 B F A
 Thu, Feb 19 322 Prairie View L 62 - 72 20% -6  2% 0 - 26 0 - 13 F -23 F -17 F F+ B D- -7 B F B+
 Sat, Feb 21 301 Texas Southern W 72 - 71 15% +1  54% 1 - 26 1 - 13 D -10 D- -7 D D- F+ D+ -3 C+ D+ D+
 Mon, Feb 23 309 @Grambling St. L 62 - 83 7% -9  2% 1 - 27 1 - 14 F -27 F -19 F F F D -5 F F A
 Sat, Feb 28 332 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 70 - 69 11% -2  36% 2 - 27 2 - 14 D+ -8 F -10 C D- F B- +3 B+ F+ D+
 Tue, Mar 3 350 @Alcorn St. L 64 - 67 14% -7  1% 2 - 28 2 - 15 D- -14 F -11 F C+ F C- -3 B- F D+
 Thu, Mar 5 345 @Jackson St. L 68 - 80 12%
Totals 2 - 29 2 - 16 -22 F -14 F+ D- F F+ -8 F C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F D- C F D- 29% 70% 30% F F D- F+ F+ F D C- D F+ D- D D D- 36% 16% 48% D+ D- F F F C F D+ F
0.88 51% 38% 27% -5 -3 0.85 24% 0.9 .21 21% .27 71% .19 1.20 64% 42% 37% +5 0 1.13 37% 1.3 .47 17% .40 74% .20
Nov
3		 UAB F F F F F 26% 32% 42% F F F A+ D- F A A+ A+ F F A- B D- 35% 27% 38% B+ D D+ F F D F A F
0.65 46% 13% 24% -18 -2 0.62 13% 1.2 .15 31% .32 95% .31 1.25 77% 29% 29% +2 -1 1.03 34% 1.5 .50 9% .48 62% .30
Nov
7		 Murray St. F D F F F 29% 43% 29% F F B- F F F A A+ A+ F F A+ F F 36% 6% 58% D- F F A+ A+ F C- A B-
0.77 50% 29% 29% -9 -4 0.78 36% 0.5 .17 30% .39 86% .33 1.39 83% 25% 41% +14 +2 1.33 41% 0.5 .20 6% .35 68% .23
Nov
12		 Hawaii F C F C+ C- 20% 52% 28% F F+ D F D- B+ D- B D+ F F A+ F F 40% 13% 47% C F F C- F D F D+ F
0.84 55% 29% 33% -6 -5 0.80 23% 0.8 .18 14% .26 73% .19 1.32 74% 17% 45% +12 +1 1.28 48% 1.1 .52 17% .52 76% .40
Nov
14		 Utah Tech D- A+ B F B- 31% 29% 41% F C+ F F F C- F A+ F C F D- A+ C- 32% 17% 51% C+ C F+ A+ B- D+ F B F
1.01 83% 41% 25% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.5 .11 16% .18 82% .14 1.09 82% 44% 26% +3 0 1.08 34% 0.6 .22 15% .44 68% .30
Nov
15		 Manhattan D+ D- A+ F C 27% 43% 31% F D+ D+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ B F F F D F 27% 12% 61% D F F D+ F A F C- F
1.14 54% 62% 27% +6 -4 1.06 35% 1.8 .61 20% .21 100% .21 1.25 73% 60% 36% +8 0 1.20 48% 1.2 .56 20% .62 81% .51
Nov
22		 Cal St. Bakersfield F D A F D+ 35% 46% 19% F F+ F F F B- A F B- F+ C- B A C+ 32% 25% 43% D- C+ F F F F F B+ F
0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29 1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45
Nov
25		 Texas A&M C B+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% C- A+ A F C F B+ C+ B+ F B F F D 39% 4% 58% C- D D F F C+ F F F
0.97 65% 50% 53% +16 -1 1.33 40% 0.7 .27 36% .34 74% .25 1.39 55% 50% 45% +9 +2 1.25 37% 1.2 .46 15% .68 84% .57
Dec
3		 Louisiana Monroe F F F F F 27% 43% 29% F F F F F C D+ C- D+ C+ F A+ B D 36% 17% 48% D+ D C C+ C B- F B F
0.80 50% 32% 13% -14 -4 0.67 26% 0.8 .21 15% .24 69% .16 1.02 80% 0% 30% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.0 .24 18% .55 69% .38
Dec
8		 Kansas St. F F F D- F 27% 46% 27% F F D F F F C- A+ B- F D+ F F F 42% 7% 51% F+ F F F F B- C+ F D+
0.64 36% 25% 29% -14 -4 0.65 27% 0.6 .16 25% .28 81% .23 1.42 65% 50% 54% +19 +2 1.44 40% 1.4 .57 18% .26 81% .21
Dec
16		 Tarleton St. F B- A+ D- B- 43% 27% 30% D+ C+ F A+ D F F F+ F F D A F F 51% 14% 35% F F D+ D- D B- D- F F
0.85 63% 58% 31% +6 -1 1.14 21% 1.4 .29 35% .24 67% .16 1.17 62% 29% 44% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 21% .37 91% .34
Dec
19		 Florida St. F A D F F 24% 37% 39% F F D+ F F F A+ F B+ F+ F B B- D+ 33% 11% 56% C+ C- F C+ D- C- F+ F+ F
0.66 70% 33% 19% -8 -3 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 34% .45 55% .24 1.29 74% 33% 31% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.1 .46 13% .37 79% .29
Dec
22		 West Virginia D C+ F+ F F+ 32% 55% 14% F F B+ C- B- A- B- A+ A+ F C B+ F F 46% 6% 48% F F F F F F D+ F D-
0.87 57% 25% 17% -11 -5 0.70 32% 0.9 .29 15% .28 100% .28 1.47 59% 33% 48% +10 +2 1.27 41% 1.5 .63 10% .34 78% .27
Dec
29		 Oklahoma B F B+ A+ A 33% 35% 33% D- B+ D- B+ C- C B A A- F F F F F 23% 15% 62% B- F F F F C- C C- C
1.12 40% 44% 53% +6 -2 1.09 25% 1.1 .29 16% .31 81% .25 1.52 73% 71% 45% +18 0 1.38 46% 1.5 .69 13% .32 76% .24
Jan
3		 Alabama St. F A- F B+ D+ 37% 33% 30% F D F D F F A A- A+ F F F F F 39% 22% 39% C- F F B+ D+ A- F F F
0.94 69% 21% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 25% .45 80% .36 1.22 67% 50% 39% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.8 .30 22% .53 93% .49
Jan
5		 Alabama A&M F F C- F F 30% 36% 34% F F F C- F F C+ D- C- C A A+ C A- 43% 14% 43% F B F D+ F A+ F F F
0.72 43% 35% 25% -10 -3 0.77 19% 1.0 .19 26% .34 67% .23 1.01 44% 17% 33% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.1 .40 24% .56 83% .47
Jan
10		 Prairie View F F A C+ C- 35% 37% 29% F D C+ F D F C- F D- C+ A- F+ F+ F+ 24% 40% 36% A D A- A+ A C F A+ F
0.97 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.00 38% 0.8 .32 25% .36 63% .23 0.99 45% 44% 38% +1 -4 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 15% .60 61% .37
Jan
12		 Texas Southern F F F D- F 47% 31% 22% F+ F C- B+ C+ F D- F F F C A+ F F 31% 10% 60% F F D- F F A A- D B
0.75 43% 14% 30% -16 -1 0.69 31% 1.3 .38 25% .31 38% .12 1.23 56% 0% 52% +12 +1 1.27 31% 1.3 .41 22% .23 75% .17
Jan
17		 Bethune-Cookman F F A- F F 35% 27% 39% F F F A+ A- A+ A- F C+ F D+ F F F 33% 20% 48% C+ F F F F B D B+ C-
0.95 35% 46% 26% -10 -1 0.80 14% 3.5 .48 9% .38 61% .23 1.19 62% 50% 53% +17 0 1.35 38% 1.6 .62 21% .36 63% .23
Jan
19		 Florida A&M F F C- F F 15% 45% 40% F F F F F C+ F+ D- F C C- B- B+ C 33% 20% 47% D+ C F F F A+ D F F
0.75 43% 38% 21% -10 -5 0.72 20% 0.5 .10 17% .26 71% .19 0.96 60% 33% 29% -4 0 0.93 37% 1.1 .40 30% .33 80% .26
Jan
28		 Southern D- F+ A C C 18% 41% 41% F D C+ F F+ D+ F F F D- F F A+ D- 27% 49% 24% A+ C- C F F C+ F F F
1.00 50% 48% 35% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 20% .14 63% .09 1.15 75% 50% 9% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.7 .48 17% .51 83% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F C- A- F C- 38% 42% 20% F D F A+ F F A+ B- A+ D- C- A- F C- 37% 37% 26% A- C C F D D- F B F
0.98 59% 47% 22% +1 -3 0.98 17% 1.6 .28 21% .50 79% .39 1.10 59% 29% 42% 0 -2 0.98 26% 1.1 .29 15% .56 71% .40
Feb
7		 Jackson St. F+ C- A C+ C 30% 39% 30% F D+ F F F B B- F C- F A+ F C+ C+ 30% 6% 64% F C- F F F C+ F F F
1.07 59% 45% 35% +4 -3 1.04 26% 0.8 .21 13% .37 67% .24 1.28 40% 67% 31% -6 +1 0.92 53% 1.6 .84 20% .58 83% .48
Feb
9		 Alcorn St. D F A+ F D 28% 42% 30% F F B- D- C- C- A+ F C F F A+ F F 36% 14% 50% F+ F A+ F B- F F C F
1.12 50% 56% 23% 0 -3 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 19% .48 52% .25 1.26 81% 17% 41% +11 +1 1.25 12% 1.7 .20 7% .37 70% .26
Feb
14		 Alabama A&M D- F F A+ D- 41% 39% 20% F F D- D- F+ D+ A- C B+ D B F B- D 41% 23% 36% D D D+ F F C- F C+ F
1.02 47% 28% 56% -2 -2 0.93 26% 0.9 .23 17% .40 71% .28 1.13 50% 60% 31% 0 0 1.02 28% 1.5 .41 16% .54 72% .39
Feb
16		 Alabama St. F F+ F C- F 31% 40% 29% F F F F F B C F D- F A+ B- B- A 51% 7% 42% F B F F F A F F F
0.76 50% 19% 33% -10 -3 0.75 14% 0.7 .10 15% .36 64% .23 1.27 39% 33% 32% -12 +3 0.84 50% 1.7 .86 22% .64 86% .55
Feb
19		 Prairie View F F A- F F 28% 38% 34% F F F A+ F+ B D A+ B- D- A+ F A+ B+ 39% 30% 30% D B F F F B+ F A F
0.91 43% 47% 12% -12 -3 0.72 20% 1.4 .29 16% .33 89% .30 1.06 39% 50% 21% -10 -1 0.80 42% 1.4 .58 19% .49 67% .33
Feb
21		 Texas Southern D- A+ B F C+ 25% 42% 33% F D C F D- F+ C- F+ D+ D+ B- F+ A- C 37% 33% 30% B+ C+ B- F D+ D+ F B- F
1.05 75% 45% 25% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 19% .36 65% .23 1.04 53% 47% 29% -2 -2 0.96 23% 1.3 .30 16% .49 68% .33
Feb
23		 Grambling St. F F+ B F+ F+ 32% 30% 38% F F F F F F F F F D D- D C F 52% 22% 26% D- F B+ F F A F C+ F
0.79 50% 41% 29% -5 -2 0.89 24% 0.4 .10 24% .25 53% .13 1.05 63% 40% 33% +2 +1 1.09 23% 1.9 .43 25% .53 71% .37
Feb
28		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F D+ A+ D B- 33% 41% 27% F C C- F D- F F D+ F B- F C+ A+ B 28% 30% 41% A- B+ F+ D F+ D+ F B+ F
1.00 56% 55% 31% +5 -3 1.06 35% 0.9 .32 24% .28 73% .21 0.99 69% 36% 21% -6 -2 0.87 32% 1.0 .32 17% .52 70% .36
Mar
3		 Alcorn St. F C C+ F F 36% 39% 25% F F C- B C+ F A+ B+ A+ C- C- D+ A+ B 45% 19% 36% F+ B- F F F D+ F C- F
0.99 63% 41% 18% -3 -2 0.91 36% 1.3 .46 25% .47 78% .37 1.04 58% 38% 20% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.6 .50 17% .52 71% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 87.8 12.2 100.0 12th
Total 87.8 12.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15 12.2% 12.2
2-16 87.8% 87.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.2%
Lose Out 87.8%