Preseason Rankings
Texas A&M
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#35
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.5#219
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#43
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 4.3% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 12.5% 12.8% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 24.7% 25.1% 6.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.8% 56.4% 26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.2% 54.8% 25.9%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.0
.500 or above 85.1% 85.7% 54.1%
.500 or above in Conference 52.2% 52.8% 26.4%
Conference Champion 4.4% 4.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 6.5% 18.1%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 4.3%
First Round53.3% 53.9% 24.1%
Second Round35.8% 36.3% 12.1%
Sweet Sixteen14.8% 15.0% 3.5%
Elite Eight6.4% 6.5% 1.4%
Final Four2.6% 2.7% 0.2%
Championship Game1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 12
Quad 33 - 013 - 12
Quad 47 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 255   Northwestern St. W 76-55 98%    
  Nov 06, 2025 285   Texas Southern W 82-59 98%    
  Nov 09, 2025 73   @ Oklahoma St. W 76-73 59%    
  Nov 14, 2025 74   Central Florida W 80-71 78%    
  Nov 18, 2025 189   Montana W 80-62 95%    
  Nov 21, 2025 260   Manhattan W 83-61 97%    
  Nov 25, 2025 365   Mississippi Valley W 86-44 100.0%   
  Nov 28, 2025 78   Florida St. W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 02, 2025 77   @ Pittsburgh W 71-68 61%    
  Dec 07, 2025 44   SMU W 73-72 55%    
  Dec 14, 2025 253   Jacksonville W 79-58 97%    
  Dec 21, 2025 333   East Texas A&M W 82-55 99%    
  Dec 29, 2025 341   Prairie View W 87-59 99%    
  Jan 03, 2026 52   LSU W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 06, 2026 22   @ Auburn L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 10, 2026 47   Oklahoma W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 13, 2026 16   @ Tennessee L 61-68 28%    
  Jan 17, 2026 36   @ Texas L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 21, 2026 33   Mississippi St. W 73-70 58%    
  Jan 24, 2026 70   South Carolina W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 31, 2026 51   @ Georgia L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 03, 2026 18   @ Alabama L 77-83 30%    
  Feb 07, 2026 5   Florida L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 11, 2026 37   Missouri W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 14, 2026 41   @ Vanderbilt L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 18, 2026 30   Mississippi W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 21, 2026 47   @ Oklahoma L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 25, 2026 17   @ Arkansas L 69-76 30%    
  Feb 28, 2026 36   Texas W 72-69 60%    
  Mar 03, 2026 7   Kentucky L 74-77 41%    
  Mar 07, 2026 52   @ LSU L 71-72 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 4.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.1 0.9 0.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.1 0.2 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 4.2 1.2 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.2 0.1 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 3.8 1.2 0.0 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.2 0.2 6.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 6.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.0 0.9 0.1 5.0 15th
16th 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.6 16th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.0 6.9 9.2 10.2 11.2 11.5 10.6 9.4 7.8 5.7 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 88.7% 1.0    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 61.1% 1.3    0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 30.8% 1.1    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.1% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.6% 99.9% 16.0% 83.8% 3.4 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 5.7% 99.6% 11.2% 88.3% 4.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-6 7.8% 98.8% 7.3% 91.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
11-7 9.4% 96.5% 3.4% 93.1% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 96.4%
10-8 10.6% 90.4% 2.0% 88.3% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.0 90.2%
9-9 11.5% 75.7% 1.0% 74.7% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.1 0.5 2.8 75.4%
8-10 11.2% 47.2% 0.5% 46.7% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.1 1.0 0.0 5.9 47.0%
7-11 10.2% 19.9% 0.1% 19.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.0 8.1 19.8%
6-12 9.2% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.7 5.0%
5-13 6.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.4%
4-14 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 5.0 0.1%
3-15 3.1% 3.1
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 55.8% 3.4% 52.4% 6.7 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.6 5.7 6.5 7.5 7.5 6.7 6.6 2.8 0.1 44.2 54.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 89.9 10.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 49.7 50.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 33.6 66.4