Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.4 #327
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #313
Pace 70.4 #143
Improvement -0.4 #205

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #244 D D B- C+ C-
Defense #355 F F C- A- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #190 1.01 #331 -3.1 #286
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #106 0.81 #107 +1.8 #87
Three Pointers 38% #243 0.97 #244 -2.3 #269
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #279 -3.5 #279
Freethrows 17.1 #216 79% #9 13.5 #137
Second Chance 26.8% #287 1.00 #247 0.27 #282
Turnovers 15.4% #112
Total Offense -2.6 #244

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.22 #263 -2.5 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #253 0.84 #301 +0.1 #178
Three Pointers 41% #169 1.22 #365 -4.5 #332
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #350 -6.8 #351
Freethrows 14.0 #29 72% #188 10.1 #29
Second Chance 38.1% #359 1.12 #279 0.43 #352
Turnovers 15.6% #230
Total Defense -7.8 #355

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #249 0.9% #252
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #273 12.3% #354
Possession Length 17.9 #235 16.1 #25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #284 0.21 #296
Improvement -2.1 #300 +1.7 #77

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 2.5% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 14.0% 31.5% 10.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 1.1% 4.3%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 18.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 410 - 1011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 48 @USC L 83 - 114 2% -16  0 - 1 -17 +6 C D A- -18 C+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 12 233 Utah Tech W 79 - 75 27% +3  1 - 1 -0 +11 B A F -11 B F F
 Fri, Nov 14 106 @Hawaii L 56 - 86 6% -15  1 - 2 -23 -11 C F C -11 C F F
 Sat, Nov 15 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 73 90% +5  2 - 2 -17 +6 C+ A- F -23 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 34 @Texas A&M L 68 - 109 1% -21  2 - 3 -24 -1 B- F D+ -20 F C- F
 Wed, Nov 26 326 Wagner L 101 - 103 OT 61% +8  2 - 4 -15 +10 D+ A- B -25 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 333 @Army L 78 - 81 OT 40% -3  2 - 5 -11 -5 F C C -5 F C- A-
 Fri, Dec 5 274 Fairfield W 70 - 66 46% +4  3 - 5 1 - 0 -5 -11 F F F +6 B B A+
 Sun, Dec 7 160 @Marist L 68 - 80 11% -3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -9 -2 C F C -6 C- F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 193 @Fordham L 53 - 82 15% -11  3 - 7 -28 -14 F D+ C+ -17 F F C
 Thu, Dec 18 165 Furman L 68 - 75 26% -2  3 - 8 -11 -5 C- D+ D -5 D- F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 266 Presbyterian W 87 - 81 44% +3  4 - 8 -3 +9 A D A+ -12 D- D- F
 Mon, Dec 29 354 @Rider W 74 - 71 49% -2  5 - 8 2 - 1 -7 +3 F B- F -10 D F C
 Fri, Jan 2 175 Quinnipiac W 80 - 79 28% -8  6 - 8 3 - 1 -3 +5 B F B -8 B- F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 208 @Merrimack L 66 - 73 17% -4  6 - 9 3 - 2 -7 -3 D F A+ -5 F B+ D-
 Fri, Jan 9 344 Canisius L 64 - 70 67% +1  6 - 10 3 - 3 -21 -11 F F F -11 D D+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 352 Niagara W 79 - 70 70% -1  7 - 10 4 - 3 -7 +12 F A+ A+ -17 F B+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 274 @Fairfield L 62 - 98 25% -20  7 - 11 4 - 4 -39 -16 F D- F -22 F D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 169 Siena L 59 - 74 27% -12  7 - 12 4 - 5 -19 -8 F F A+ -12 F B+ B
 Mon, Jan 19 175 @Quinnipiac L 92 - 98 OT 13% +1  7 - 13 4 - 6 -4 +10 C- C A- -13 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 227 @Iona L 74 - 84 18%
 Fri, Jan 30 354 Rider W 76 - 70 70%
 Sun, Feb 1 288 @Mount St. Mary's L 73 - 79 29%
 Thu, Feb 5 220 St. Peter's L 71 - 75 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 270 Sacred Heart L 81 - 82 45%
 Fri, Feb 13 352 @Niagara L 70 - 71 48%
 Sun, Feb 15 344 @Canisius L 71 - 73 44%
 Fri, Feb 20 160 Marist L 67 - 74 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 220 @St. Peter's L 68 - 78 18%
 Sun, Mar 1 227 Iona L 77 - 81 37%
Totals 11 - 19 8 - 12 -10 -3 D D B- -8 F F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.5 2.6 1.8 0.2 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.5 4.5 0.7 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 6.0 8.2 1.8 0.0 16.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 7.3 11.1 3.2 0.1 22.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 6.3 11.3 4.7 0.2 23.2 10th
11th 0.1 3.0 7.2 3.1 0.3 13.7 11th
12th 0.6 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.0 12th
13th 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.0 13th
Total 1.3 6.7 15.9 22.7 22.8 16.6 9.3 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.2% 6.1% 6.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 1.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 3.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.5
10-10 9.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.2
9-11 16.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.5
8-12 22.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.7
7-13 22.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 22.7
6-14 15.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.9
5-15 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%