Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.3 335
Expected Predictive Rating -13.7 350
Pace 59.0 364
Improvement +4.3 35

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- #340 D+ F+ D F B
Defense D+ #306 D C- D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 51% 323 -0.1 177
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 269 35% 280 -2.1 286
Three Pointers 40% 197 33% 202 -0.6 202
1st FG Attempt 0.96 264 -2.8 264
Second Chance 22.5% 351 0.87 345 0.20 359
Turnovers 19.1% 309
Freethrows 0.22 363 70% 246 0.15 361
Total Offense -7.0 340

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 223 60% 241 +0.0 182
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 207 45% 352 -1.0 270
Three Pointers 43% 105 36% 279 -2.7 301
1st FG Attempt 1.09 298 -3.8 298
Second Chance 33.6% 304 1.02 158 0.34 254
Turnovers 15.3% 278
Freethrows 0.31 189 78% 360 0.24 259
Total Defense -4.4 306

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.9 62 +0.0 170
Shot Type Accuracy -3.6 305 +3.7 314
Possession Length 20.1 362 17.2 171
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 345 0.19 247
Improvement +1.9 #95 +2.5 #57

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 25% 15% 38%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 147 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 108 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 5% -17  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 F -10 D- F F C- -2 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 361 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 59% +0  43% 1 - 1 D+ -6 F+ -8 F D C- B- +3 A F F
 Mon, Nov 10 359 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 75% +8  90% 2 - 1 D+ -7 C +0 A F B+ D -6 C- F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 303 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 28% -4  7% 2 - 2 D -11 D- -7 C F D+ D+ -4 F+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 3 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  0% 2 - 3 F -31 F -16 F C F F -20 F F D
 Sat, Nov 22 237 Howard L 70 - 80 25% +4  75% 2 - 4 D- -14 F+ -9 C- B- F D+ -4 D+ C- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 271 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 42% -6  5% 2 - 5 D- -13 F -11 D+ F B- C- -3 A- D- D
 Fri, Dec 5 181 @Siena L 54 - 83 12% -22  0% 2 - 6 0 - 1 F -27 F -17 F F A+ F -12 F D D-
 Sun, Dec 7 228 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 16% -13  0% 2 - 7 0 - 2 F -29 F -24 F F F D- -9 D- F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 352 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 47% -4  6% 2 - 8 F -19 D -5 D D+ B- F -14 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  6% 2 - 9 D- -12 D -5 D F+ B- F+ -10 F B C+
 Fri, Jan 2 287 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 46% +9  99% 3 - 9 1 - 2 D+ -7 D- -6 B+ F C- C -1 A F A
 Sun, Jan 4 262 Fairfield L 75 - 83 40% -5  6% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F+ -17 B +6 A+ F C F -23 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 247 @Iona L 53 - 71 18% -16  1% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -20 F -14 F F A D- -8 D+ F+ D
 Sun, Jan 11 323 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 34% +1  52% 3 - 12 1 - 5 F+ -16 C -0 A- F D+ F -17 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 346 @Canisius W 59 - 54 42% +3  76% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -4 D- -7 D F D+ B- +3 B C C-
 Mon, Jan 19 289 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 47% -1  54% 4 - 13 2 - 6 F -20 F -12 F A+ F F+ -10 D+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 262 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 21% -3  8% 4 - 14 2 - 7 C- -4 F -13 D+ F F+ A- +9 B- D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 287 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 25% +5  95% 4 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -5 D -6 B+ B F C+ +0 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 181 Siena L 79 - 82 25% -3  19% 4 - 16 2 - 9 D+ -7 A- +10 A+ C+ B- F -17 F D C-
 Sun, Feb 1 163 Marist L 46 - 58 22% -5  2% 4 - 17 2 - 10 F+ -15 F -19 F F F C+ +2 B+ B F
 Tue, Feb 3 346 Canisius W 65 - 56 65% +8  92% 5 - 17 3 - 10 D+ -6 C- -2 A+ F F C- -3 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 195 @Quinnipiac L 55 - 56 13% -5  12% 5 - 18 3 - 11 C -0 F+ -8 D+ D+ F B+ +8 B+ A+ B+
 Fri, Feb 13 323 Manhattan W 71 - 69 56%
 Sun, Feb 15 247 Iona L 66 - 70 38%
 Fri, Feb 20 289 @Mount St. Mary's L 62 - 69 26%
 Sun, Feb 22 354 @Rider L 65 - 66 49%
 Fri, Feb 27 195 Quinnipiac L 65 - 71 28%
 Sun, Mar 1 182 Merrimack L 60 - 67 26%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -11 D- -7 D+ F+ D D+ -4 D C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D D+ C D 43% 16% 40% B D+ F+ D- F+ D F C- F D+ C- F+ D+ D 37% 20% 43% C D D+ C C- D+ C F C-
0.99 51% 35% 33% -4 +1 0.96 22% 0.9 .20 19% .22 70% .15 1.15 60% 45% 36% +4 0 1.09 34% 1.0 .34 15% .31 78% .17
Nov
3		 Duquesne F C+ B- F F+ 47% 23% 30% B- D- F+ F F F A+ B+ A+ C- F A+ F F 39% 12% 49% B- F B F D+ A+ A+ D- A
0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38 1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19
Nov
8		 Binghamton F+ D+ D- F F 47% 18% 35% C F D+ D D C- C- C C- B- A- A+ A A+ 53% 22% 24% D A F D F F C B+ B-
1.05 54% 33% 22% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.0 .28 13% .30 71% .22 0.92 46% 18% 25% -14 +1 0.76 30% 0.9 .27 14% .37 70% .26
Nov
10		 Delaware St. C D+ D A+ A- 55% 7% 39% A A F F F B+ D- F+ F+ D A- D- B+ C 36% 26% 38% F+ C- C+ F F+ F B C+ B
1.14 58% 33% 53% +11 +3 1.30 12% 0.7 .08 15% .28 64% .18 0.96 41% 42% 28% -9 -1 0.83 23% 1.3 .29 13% .23 67% .15
Nov
17		 Le Moyne D- F F A+ C+ 29% 20% 51% D C F D+ F D+ F B D- D+ D+ A- F F 29% 22% 49% A F+ B- A+ A+ C- F+ F F
1.01 33% 20% 50% +2 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 16% .25 79% .20 1.10 62% 30% 45% +8 -1 1.16 23% 0.3 .07 19% .41 91% .37
Nov
21		 Duke F F F F F 29% 15% 56% B F D+ B C F A+ F B+ F D+ F F F 31% 6% 63% B F F+ F F D F F+ F
0.65 42% 17% 22% -18 0 0.66 19% 0.9 .17 26% .31 60% .19 1.54 67% 67% 53% +23 +1 1.50 46% 1.5 .67 14% .43 79% .34
Nov
22		 Howard F+ F A+ F D+ 60% 15% 26% B C- C- A B- F A+ D+ A+ D+ A- F C C- 45% 12% 43% D D+ C+ D C- C- F B F
0.93 46% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.96 31% 1.3 .41 29% .54 69% .37 1.06 42% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.95 32% 1.2 .38 20% .71 70% .50
Nov
29		 Detroit Mercy F A- A+ F D+ 36% 13% 51% C D+ F A+ F B- F F F C- C+ D A+ A 33% 31% 36% D A- D- D+ D- D F C- F
1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16 1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41
Dec
5		 Siena F F A F F 50% 11% 39% A F F D F A+ F F F F D+ F+ F F 37% 23% 40% D F C- D- D D- B- B- B
0.83 44% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 17% 0.9 .15 11% .19 55% .10 1.27 63% 50% 43% +10 0 1.21 32% 1.1 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Dec
7		 St. Peter's F D+ F F F 38% 23% 38% D F D F F F F+ A+ C- D- A+ F F D- 40% 20% 40% D+ D- C+ F F D- B+ D B-
0.71 53% 11% 20% -16 0 0.69 30% 0.8 .23 30% .33 86% .28 1.17 39% 56% 39% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.5 .50 15% .27 79% .21
Dec
13		 Morgan St. D D+ A D D 50% 8% 42% B D F A+ D+ B- F B- F F F F F F 24% 29% 47% B- F F C- F A+ F F F
1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24 1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41
Dec
15		 Virginia Commonwealth D F+ F+ C D- 54% 19% 28% B D A- F F+ B- F A+ F F+ A- C F F 27% 11% 62% B F D+ A B C+ C- A C+
0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13 1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26
Jan
2		 Sacred Heart D- C C+ A+ B+ 37% 12% 51% C B+ F F F C- D+ F+ D C C A+ A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% F+ A F A F A F F+ F
1.10 63% 40% 45% +11 +1 1.26 19% 0.6 .12 15% .24 67% .16 1.05 58% 17% 22% -10 +1 0.84 46% 0.8 .37 24% .41 83% .34
Jan
4		 Fairfield B B+ A+ A A 59% 4% 37% A A+ D F F C F A+ F F D- F F F 44% 25% 31% C F F D+ F F F F F
1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08 1.37 62% 50% 40% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
9		 Iona F D+ F F F 32% 22% 46% D F F F F A F A F+ D- F F A- D 34% 15% 51% C- D+ F B+ F+ D C F D
0.87 56% 18% 26% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 12% .17 78% .13 1.17 69% 57% 29% +3 0 1.09 39% 0.8 .33 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
11		 Manhattan C D- A+ A+ B+ 49% 9% 43% A A- F F F D+ F A+ F+ F D A- A+ C+ 44% 29% 27% C+ C+ F F F F F F F
1.16 52% 75% 50% +11 +2 1.28 28% 0.5 .14 17% .14 86% .12 1.31 60% 31% 25% -5 -1 0.91 37% 1.7 .63 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
14		 Canisius D- D F B- D- 56% 17% 27% B+ D D- F F D+ A- B+ A B- B- D- A+ B+ 25% 16% 59% C- B F A+ C C- D- F+ F
1.02 57% 29% 36% -1 +2 1.02 26% 0.4 .10 17% .37 78% .29 0.93 45% 43% 23% -12 0 0.77 41% 0.6 .26 19% .34 75% .25
Jan
19		 Mount St. Mary's F F D- F F 45% 14% 41% B+ F A+ A+ A+ F C- F D F+ A F D- C- 51% 9% 40% F D+ F+ A+ B- F F D F
0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21 1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29
Jan
22		 Fairfield F D- A+ C D 54% 8% 38% B+ D+ F F F F+ F C+ F A- A F B B- 41% 20% 39% D+ B- C- D+ D+ B+ A- A+ A
0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11 0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09
Jan
24		 Sacred Heart D B+ D A B 51% 13% 36% B B+ F A+ B F F F F C+ F F D F 25% 22% 53% B F+ A+ A+ A+ F C A B-
1.06 71% 33% 41% +10 +2 1.26 21% 2.0 .42 21% .13 14% .02 1.08 69% 45% 37% +7 -1 1.14 13% 0.5 .06 14% .28 69% .19
Jan
30		 Siena A- D+ A A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ C+ B- D F F F F F C- F 26% 38% 36% A F A+ F D C- F F F
1.25 56% 50% 52% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.3 .32 16% .25 54% .13 1.30 91% 63% 33% +18 -3 1.31 20% 1.8 .35 16% .43 87% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Marist F F F A+ F 44% 24% 31% B- F C F F F F F+ F C+ C C A+ B 31% 44% 24% A+ B+ A+ F B F D F+ D-
0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15 0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24
Feb
3		 Canisius C- B+ A A+ A 50% 5% 45% A+ A+ F F F F F B+ F C- D- F A+ C- 40% 17% 44% D- D+ A+ F C+ F A+ F B+
1.13 70% 50% 44% +14 +3 1.35 23% 0.8 .18 21% .20 78% .15 0.97 58% 63% 19% -6 +1 0.92 16% 1.4 .23 14% .16 88% .14
Feb
7		 Quinnipiac F+ B- C- D D+ 32% 22% 46% D D+ C+ F+ D+ F D- C- D- B+ A+ A+ F A- 36% 18% 45% D+ B+ F A+ A+ B+ D- D- F+
0.93 62% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.98 35% 0.8 .29 25% .23 70% .16 0.95 38% 13% 40% -8 0 0.86 42% 0.4 .18 20% .34 75% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 1.7 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 3.7 6.3 1.0 10.9 10th
11th 4.8 18.6 18.6 4.0 0.1 46.1 11th
12th 2.2 14.1 11.0 2.3 0.1 29.7 12th
13th 4.7 3.9 0.4 0.0 9.0 13th
Total 6.9 22.8 30.0 24.7 11.9 3.4 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-12 3.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.4
7-13 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.9
6-14 24.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.6
5-15 30.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 29.9
4-16 22.8% 22.8
3-17 6.9% 6.9
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.9%