Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
163 Marist 24.1%   15   15 - 8 10 - 5 -0.3      -5.4 314 +5.1 54 65.2 271 -1.7 196 -2.4 4
181 Siena 18.7%   17 - 8 10 - 4 -1.3      -0.1 163 -1.2 211 63.7 312 -1.5 189 -2.2 3
182 Merrimack 20.0%   16 - 9 12 - 2 -1.4      -2.3 227 +0.8 142 62.4 335 +0.7 151 +4.8 1
195 Quinnipiac 14.1%   16 - 9 10 - 5 -2.3      -3.1 257 +0.8 144 75.4 30 -0.1 162 -2.5 5
228 St. Peter's 11.1%   13 - 8 11 - 3 -3.6      -3.6 265 0.0 169 64.5 294 -1.9 202 +1.2 2
247 Iona 4.5%   14 - 11 6 - 8 -4.7      -3.4 260 -1.3 218 72.5 79 -3.2 216 -8.4 8
262 Fairfield 3.7%   15 - 10 8 - 7 -5.7      -1.2 202 -4.4 308 67.1 226 -3.4 222 -5.7 6
287 Sacred Heart 1.3%   9 - 16 6 - 9 -7.3      -1.1 197 -6.2 334 71.8 94 -8.4 302 -8.9 9
289 Mount St. Mary's 1.9%   10 - 15 7 - 8 -7.5      -5.7 318 -1.8 231 68.8 179 -6.7 271 -6.3 7
323 Manhattan 0.4%   9 - 16 6 - 9 -10.2      -2.4 233 -7.8 357 69.5 157 -9.5 314 -9.1 10
335 Niagara 0.2%   5 - 18 3 - 11 -11.3      -7.0 340 -4.4 306 59.0 364 -13.7 350 -13.3 12
346 Canisius 0.1%   7 - 17 3 - 11 -12.2      -8.4 350 -3.9 291 62.7 332 -10.6 326 -13.1 11
354 Rider 0.0%   2 - 20 2 - 12 -14.0      -6.6 334 -7.4 353 63.3 324 -19.0 360 -14.8 13


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 163 Marist 62 182 Merrimack 64 57%   
Fri, Feb 13 195 Quinnipiac 71 181 Siena 75 65%   
Fri, Feb 13 287 Sacred Heart 73 228 St. Peter's 74 53%   
Fri, Feb 13 323 Manhattan 69 335 Niagara 71 57%   
Fri, Feb 13 346 Canisius 67 247 Iona 72 67%   
Fri, Feb 13 289 Mount St. Mary's 71 354 Rider 68 63%   
Sun, Feb 15 163 Marist 67 181 Siena 63 65%   
Sun, Feb 15 182 Merrimack 69 195 Quinnipiac 71 58%   
Sun, Feb 15 262 Fairfield 68 228 St. Peter's 73 69%   
Sun, Feb 15 346 Canisius 72 323 Manhattan 71 54%   
Sun, Feb 15 247 Iona 70 335 Niagara 66 64%   
Sun, Feb 15 354 Rider 71 287 Sacred Heart 80 82%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Marist 3.1 9.7 25.8 25.5 22.8 14.9 1.2 0.1
Siena 3.0 13.8 29.2 22.0 18.4 15.3 1.3 0.1
Merrimack 1.2 84.5 10.3 3.3 1.5 0.4
Quinnipiac 3.5 5.5 19.9 24.1 25.8 21.1 3.2 0.5 0.0
St. Peter's 2.6 17.4 38.8 21.7 14.5 7.1 0.5 0.0
Iona 7.2 0.0 0.6 4.1 27.9 31.7 21.6 9.5 4.1 0.3 0.0
Fairfield 6.3 0.3 1.4 4.7 12.2 43.9 22.5 10.9 3.7 0.5
Sacred Heart 8.4 0.0 0.4 7.9 14.4 22.2 36.9 17.1 1.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 6.9 0.1 0.8 4.9 34.6 29.5 20.7 7.5 1.8 0.1
Manhattan 9.2 0.2 2.3 8.0 14.1 29.0 40.3 5.8 0.4
Niagara 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.3 10.9 46.1 29.7 9.0
Canisius 11.4 0.1 0.6 2.5 8.2 41.8 35.3 11.5
Rider 12.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 18.4 27.0 53.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Marist 13 - 7 18 - 10 0.4 3.8 15.5 32.4 33.7 14.2
Siena 14 - 6 21 - 10 0.2 3.4 14.0 29.0 31.5 17.8 4.2
Merrimack 16 - 4 20 - 11 0.3 2.5 10.9 23.7 31.7 23.7 7.3
Quinnipiac 13 - 7 19 - 11 1.0 6.6 21.3 33.3 28.6 9.2
St. Peter's 14 - 6 16 - 11 1.2 8.6 24.2 31.9 23.3 9.3 1.6
Iona 10 - 10 18 - 13 0.4 3.7 13.4 26.7 32.6 19.1 4.2
Fairfield 10 - 10 17 - 13 3.4 17.6 33.3 29.8 13.6 2.4
Sacred Heart 8 - 12 11 - 19 2.5 17.0 34.4 31.5 12.8 1.8
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 13 - 17 1.2 9.3 26.4 35.4 22.3 5.4
Manhattan 8 - 12 11 - 19 12.1 30.4 33.1 18.6 5.1 0.7
Niagara 5 - 15 7 - 22 6.9 22.8 30.0 24.7 11.9 3.4 0.3
Canisius 5 - 15 9 - 21 9.1 25.5 31.5 22.5 8.9 2.3 0.3
Rider 4 - 16 4 - 24 11.1 30.8 33.6 18.5 5.1 0.8 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Marist 9.7% 1.8 4.3 2.5 0.8 0.3
Siena 13.8% 4.2 6.2 2.5 0.7 0.3
Merrimack 84.5% 64.3 14.6 4.4 1.0 0.3
Quinnipiac 5.5% 0.7 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.3
St. Peter's 17.4% 5.8 7.2 3.4 0.8 0.3
Iona
Fairfield
Sacred Heart
Mount St. Mary's
Manhattan
Niagara
Canisius
Rider


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Marist 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 15   0.1 2.9 9.2 10.1 1.8 75.9 0.0%
Siena 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 5.2 9.9 2.7 81.3 0.0%
Merrimack 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 6.0 10.2 2.9 80.0 0.0%
Quinnipiac 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.5 3.0 7.6 2.9 85.9 0.0%
St. Peter's 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 5.1 5.0 88.9 0.0%
Iona 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.5 95.5 0.0%
Fairfield 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.2 96.3 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.8 98.1 0.0%
Manhattan 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Niagara 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.1% 1.0 3.9 96.1
2nd Round 1.4% 0.0 98.7 1.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Marist 24.1% 0.2% 24.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 18.7% 0.5% 18.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 20.0% 0.4% 19.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 14.1% 0.5% 13.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 11.1% 1.3% 10.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 4.5% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 3.7% 0.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.9% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%