Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
157 Marist 24.1%   15   7 - 3 2 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 6 +0.2      -4.4 289 +4.6 59 67.0 250 +0.1 162 +4.0 2
160 Quinnipiac 22.5%   8 - 4 2 - 0 21 - 9 15 - 5 0.0      -1.3 202 +1.3 127 77.3 28 +6.3 88 +14.2 1
165 Iona 20.5%   9 - 4 1 - 1 22 - 9 14 - 6 -0.4      +0.2 163 -0.6 186 76.4 35 +3.6 121 -2.6 6
179 Siena 15.4%   9 - 4 2 - 0 21 - 10 14 - 6 -1.4      -2.2 228 +0.8 137 66.1 270 +0.6 157 -0.5 4
250 Sacred Heart 5.0%   4 - 8 1 - 1 14 - 16 11 - 9 -5.1      -1.6 210 -3.5 295 71.8 117 -6.7 265 -4.0 8
263 Merrimack 4.0%   6 - 7 2 - 0 14 - 17 10 - 10 -5.7      -4.1 284 -1.5 216 62.7 340 -2.5 202 +3.8 3
277 Fairfield 2.7%   7 - 5 0 - 2 16 - 14 9 - 11 -6.3      -2.5 236 -3.8 301 68.3 220 -3.2 216 -19.7 12
297 St. Peter's 2.4%   4 - 5 2 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -7.3      -5.6 323 -1.7 225 62.6 341 -8.0 291 -0.5 4
300 Mount St. Mary's 1.8%   3 - 9 0 - 2 12 - 18 9 - 11 -7.6      -5.0 304 -2.5 256 69.6 182 -9.8 315 -20.1 13
313 Manhattan 1.1%   4 - 8 1 - 1 12 - 18 9 - 11 -8.8      -1.5 206 -7.3 351 70.9 139 -8.3 296 -3.0 7
344 Rider 0.2%   0 - 10 0 - 2 6 - 22 6 - 14 -11.8      -9.5 360 -2.3 242 64.8 306 -24.6 365 -15.7 9
347 Canisius 0.2%   4 - 8 0 - 2 9 - 21 5 - 15 -12.2      -8.9 356 -3.3 290 62.7 339 -8.0 290 -17.3 10
352 Niagara 0.1%   2 - 9 0 - 2 7 - 22 5 - 15 -13.2      -8.1 348 -5.1 331 63.3 331 -15.1 346 -17.3 10




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 165 Iona 83 178 Vermont 78   
Sun, Dec 21 110 Hofstra 74 160 Quinnipiac 66   
Sun, Dec 21 157 Marist 70 246 Stony Brook 51   
Sun, Dec 21 313 Manhattan 87 286 Presbyterian 81   
Mon, Dec 22 250 Sacred Heart 47 128 Towson 72   
Mon, Dec 22 29 Indiana 81 179 Siena 60   
Mon, Dec 22 347 Canisius 59 121 Duquesne 103   
Mon, Dec 22 344 Rider 79 47 Virginia Commonwealth 100   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Marist 2.8 33.6 21.1 16.7 11.9 7.6 4.4 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 2.4 37.8 24.1 16.8 9.9 5.3 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iona 2.9 24.2 25.1 20.3 14.0 7.5 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 3.4 21.2 19.7 17.9 15.9 10.5 6.4 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 5.6 3.4 6.4 10.3 13.7 17.4 15.0 11.7 8.8 6.0 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.3
Merrimack 6.2 3.0 4.8 7.6 11.0 14.4 15.2 13.3 11.5 8.5 5.7 3.1 1.4 0.3
Fairfield 7.5 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.0 9.9 13.0 14.4 14.3 13.3 10.8 6.7 3.7 1.7
St. Peter's 7.1 1.5 2.9 5.1 8.0 10.6 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.1 10.3 6.3 3.3 0.8
Mount St. Mary's 8.0 0.4 1.4 2.7 5.0 8.1 11.3 13.2 14.0 14.3 12.6 8.8 5.6 2.7
Manhattan 8.0 0.5 1.5 2.5 4.9 8.0 11.1 13.3 14.5 14.5 12.4 9.0 5.5 2.7
Rider 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.4 6.6 9.3 13.6 19.9 22.6 18.4
Canisius 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.9 5.9 9.0 13.6 19.4 22.1 21.7
Niagara 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.6 4.4 7.2 10.9 17.5 23.5 31.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Marist 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.7 8.8 12.1 14.9 15.6 14.8 11.3 6.8 3.1 0.7
Quinnipiac 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.1 7.0 11.2 14.9 16.8 16.6 13.1 8.1 3.6 0.9
Iona 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.4 6.0 9.7 14.1 16.6 17.8 14.9 9.6 4.3 1.0
Siena 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.4 8.4 11.9 14.4 15.9 14.5 11.4 7.4 3.6 1.3 0.2
Sacred Heart 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.5 7.7 11.1 14.2 15.3 14.7 11.8 8.2 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Merrimack 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.8 10.3 13.3 14.7 14.8 12.6 9.3 5.8 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.4 8.2 12.0 14.2 15.6 14.3 11.6 8.0 4.7 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.2 7.4 10.7 13.2 14.3 13.9 11.6 9.1 6.3 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 6.4 9.4 13.1 15.4 14.7 12.8 9.8 6.3 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.2 6.4 10.2 13.5 15.1 14.8 12.9 9.8 6.3 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rider 6 - 14 0.6 2.5 6.3 10.9 14.6 16.3 15.5 12.5 9.2 5.7 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 5 - 15 0.7 2.9 6.8 11.4 15.4 16.5 15.2 12.0 8.8 5.1 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Niagara 5 - 15 1.2 4.8 10.3 14.1 17.0 16.2 13.5 9.9 6.3 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Marist 33.6% 22.5 8.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 37.8% 25.0 9.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Iona 24.2% 13.7 8.0 2.1 0.4 0.0
Siena 21.2% 12.7 6.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 3.4% 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 3.0% 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rider 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Niagara 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Marist 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 15   0.1 0.9 4.5 9.3 7.6 1.7 76.0 0.0%
Quinnipiac 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.2 9.3 4.7 0.5 77.5 0.0%
Iona 20.5% 20.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 3.8 8.3 6.4 1.2 79.5 0.0%
Siena 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.5 6.3 1.8 84.6 0.0%
Sacred Heart 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 95.0 0.0%
Merrimack 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 96.0 0.0%
Fairfield 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 97.3 0.0%
St. Peter's 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 97.6 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 98.2 0.0%
Manhattan 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.9 0.0%
Rider 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Canisius 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Marist 24.1% 0.3% 23.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 22.5% 0.1% 22.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 20.5% 0.2% 20.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 15.4% 0.3% 15.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 5.0% 1.7% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 4.0% 1.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 2.7% 0.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 2.4% 1.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.8% 1.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.3% 1.0 3.7 96.3
2nd Round 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0