Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#159
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#191
Pace65.1#298
Improvement-1.3#282

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#337
First Shot-6.3#335
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#176
Layup/Dunks-1.5#236
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#210
Freethrows-6.4#364
Improvement-1.6#306

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#36
First Shot+7.5#17
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#282
Layups/Dunks-1.1#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.0#4
Freethrows-4.1#350
Improvement+0.3#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.2% 23.5% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 93.8% 95.5% 84.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 96.0% 84.9%
Conference Champion 28.7% 31.4% 13.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 1.1%
First Round21.8% 23.2% 13.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 85.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 5
Quad 417 - 520 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 77 @Xavier L 62-66 16%     0 - 1 +6.4 -3.1 +9.4
  Sun, Nov 9 261 @Dartmouth W 75-56 59%     1 - 1 +16.3 -1.5 +17.0
  Sun, Nov 16 193 Harvard L 54-56 68%     1 - 2 -7.2 -15.2 +7.7
  Fri, Nov 21 342 Army W 76-65 90%     2 - 2 -3.3 -0.5 -2.2
  Tue, Nov 25 299 Lehigh W 78-55 84%     3 - 2 +12.3 +3.3 +9.8
  Fri, Dec 5 307 Mount St. Mary's W 64-56 84%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -3.1 -15.4 +12.2
  Sun, Dec 7 310 Manhattan W 74-63 85%    
  Sat, Dec 13 295 @Bryant W 65-61 65%    
  Tue, Dec 16 134 @Georgia Tech L 61-66 32%    
  Sun, Dec 21 222 Stony Brook W 66-60 72%    
  Mon, Dec 29 154 @Quinnipiac L 66-69 38%    
  Fri, Jan 2 329 @St. Peter's W 65-59 72%    
  Sun, Jan 4 174 Iona W 72-68 63%    
  Fri, Jan 9 255 @Sacred Heart W 72-70 57%    
  Sun, Jan 11 335 @Rider W 67-60 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 294 Fairfield W 70-60 82%    
  Mon, Jan 19 277 Merrimack W 66-57 79%    
  Thu, Jan 22 161 @Siena L 61-64 39%    
  Sat, Jan 24 154 Quinnipiac W 69-66 60%    
  Fri, Jan 30 353 @Canisius W 65-55 81%    
  Sun, Feb 1 347 @Niagara W 65-57 77%    
  Thu, Feb 5 335 Rider W 70-57 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 294 @Fairfield W 67-63 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 277 @Merrimack W 63-60 61%    
  Sun, Feb 15 161 Siena W 64-61 60%    
  Fri, Feb 20 310 @Manhattan W 71-66 66%    
  Sun, Feb 22 255 Sacred Heart W 75-67 76%    
  Sun, Mar 1 329 St. Peter's W 68-56 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.3 7.0 8.1 5.9 2.7 0.8 28.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.5 6.8 5.4 1.9 0.2 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.9 6.0 3.6 1.1 0.1 17.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.4 1.2 0.2 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.7 9.9 12.2 13.8 14.1 13.5 10.1 6.0 2.7 0.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.0
18-2 97.2% 5.9    5.3 0.6
17-3 80.3% 8.1    5.8 2.1 0.2 0.0
16-4 51.9% 7.0    3.7 2.6 0.6 0.1
15-5 23.5% 3.3    1.1 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.7% 28.7 19.4 7.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 60.4% 60.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
19-1 2.7% 47.6% 47.6% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.4
18-2 6.0% 42.7% 42.7% 13.4 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.5
17-3 10.1% 36.5% 36.5% 13.9 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.0 6.4
16-4 13.5% 31.7% 31.7% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.5 0.1 9.2
15-5 14.1% 24.4% 24.4% 14.6 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.3 10.6
14-6 13.8% 19.9% 19.9% 14.9 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.5 11.1
13-7 12.2% 15.0% 15.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 10.3
12-8 9.9% 9.6% 9.6% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 8.9
11-9 6.7% 7.4% 7.4% 15.8 0.1 0.4 6.2
10-10 4.6% 5.5% 5.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 4.3
9-11 2.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 2.8
8-12 1.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
7-13 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 7.1 7.4 2.9 77.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.3 3.3 4.9 54.1 37.7