Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#218
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#137
Pace62.8#326
Improvement+1.9#96

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#310
First Shot-2.7#252
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#311
Layup/Dunks-0.8#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#196
Freethrows-3.6#353
Improvement-4.3#354

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#117
First Shot+1.2#133
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#119
Layups/Dunks-0.4#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#116
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement+6.2#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 17.7% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 99.6% 97.4%
Conference Champion 26.4% 33.8% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 2.4% 3.5%
First Round15.0% 16.7% 12.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 33 - 23 - 2
Quad 420 - 722 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 215   @ Harvard L 66-79 39%     0 - 1 -13.2 -1.1 -12.9
  Nov 09, 2024 209   @ Richmond W 79-72 37%     1 - 1 +7.3 +11.3 -3.7
  Nov 15, 2024 305   Army W 91-88 OT 76%     2 - 1 -7.7 +12.7 -20.4
  Nov 19, 2024 274   Dartmouth W 75-62 72%     3 - 1 +3.8 -2.5 +6.0
  Nov 23, 2024 351   New Hampshire W 54-49 88%     4 - 1 -10.6 -17.6 +7.5
  Nov 30, 2024 296   @ Lehigh L 69-74 57%     4 - 2 -9.9 +1.2 -11.6
  Dec 06, 2024 266   Mount St. Mary's W 53-50 70%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -5.7 -16.2 +10.8
  Dec 08, 2024 297   @ Manhattan W 82-75 57%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +2.1 +6.5 -4.2
  Dec 17, 2024 320   @ Stony Brook W 68-66 63%     7 - 2 -4.5 +5.9 -10.0
  Dec 21, 2024 271   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-73 OT 71%     8 - 2 -6.0 -7.7 +1.6
  Dec 29, 2024 322   Binghamton W 69-51 80%     9 - 2 +5.9 -5.9 +13.2
  Jan 03, 2025 253   @ Iona W 70-65 47%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +2.5 -3.5 +5.8
  Jan 05, 2025 184   Quinnipiac W 69-62 52%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +3.2 -6.5 +9.4
  Jan 12, 2025 318   Fairfield W 61-51 79%     12 - 2 5 - 0 -1.8 -8.4 +8.4
  Jan 16, 2025 232   @ St. Peter's W 56-51 43%     13 - 2 6 - 0 +3.8 -2.8 +7.5
  Jan 18, 2025 294   Rider L 57-64 76%     13 - 3 6 - 1 -17.4 -16.1 -1.9
  Jan 23, 2025 310   @ Niagara W 65-62 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 346   @ Canisius W 70-64 72%    
  Jan 31, 2025 270   Siena W 66-60 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 318   @ Fairfield W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 253   Iona W 67-62 68%    
  Feb 14, 2025 270   @ Siena W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 16, 2025 206   @ Merrimack L 59-63 36%    
  Feb 21, 2025 346   Canisius W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 23, 2025 310   Niagara W 68-60 78%    
  Feb 28, 2025 295   @ Sacred Heart W 70-68 55%    
  Mar 02, 2025 232   St. Peter's W 60-56 65%    
  Mar 06, 2025 206   Merrimack W 62-60 57%    
  Mar 08, 2025 266   @ Mount St. Mary's W 65-64 50%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.2 5.8 8.1 6.5 2.9 0.7 26.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.8 9.4 10.3 5.4 1.1 0.1 30.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.3 10.3 7.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 26.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 4.0 1.7 0.2 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 3.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.8 6.1 10.7 16.2 19.1 18.7 13.9 7.6 3.0 0.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
18-2 95.6% 2.9    2.5 0.4
17-3 84.9% 6.5    4.8 1.6 0.1
16-4 58.3% 8.1    4.3 3.2 0.5
15-5 31.0% 5.8    1.9 3.0 0.9 0.0
14-6 11.5% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2
13-7 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.4% 26.4 14.5 9.4 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 50.0% 50.0% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
18-2 3.0% 31.2% 31.2% 14.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 2.1
17-3 7.6% 25.4% 25.4% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.2 5.7
16-4 13.9% 22.9% 22.9% 15.1 0.0 0.4 2.1 0.7 10.7
15-5 18.7% 16.9% 16.9% 15.4 0.1 1.7 1.4 15.5
14-6 19.1% 16.5% 16.5% 15.7 0.0 1.0 2.1 16.0
13-7 16.2% 12.2% 12.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.7 14.2
12-8 10.7% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.1 0.9 9.7
11-9 6.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.7
10-10 2.8% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.1 2.7
9-11 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.4 1.5 6.7 7.6 83.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.9 24.2 60.6 15.2