Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#232
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#144
Pace62.1#343
Improvement+1.3#100

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#248
First Shot-2.6#249
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#201
Layup/Dunks-2.2#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#185
Freethrows-3.6#349
Improvement-1.5#297

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#194
First Shot-2.0#237
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#97
Layups/Dunks-2.6#277
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#128
Freethrows-1.3#271
Improvement+2.8#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 15.0% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 93.3% 96.3% 87.9%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 88.0% 81.8%
Conference Champion 23.4% 26.0% 18.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four2.0% 1.8% 2.5%
First Round12.5% 14.1% 9.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 32 - 3
Quad 418 - 820 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 234   @ Harvard L 66-79 39%     0 - 1 -13.8 -1.0 -13.7
  Nov 09, 2024 214   @ Richmond W 79-72 34%     1 - 1 +7.5 +9.6 -1.8
  Nov 15, 2024 301   Army W 91-88 OT 74%     2 - 1 -7.4 +12.5 -19.8
  Nov 19, 2024 311   Dartmouth W 75-62 77%     3 - 1 +1.5 -3.6 +4.9
  Nov 23, 2024 356   New Hampshire W 54-49 87%     4 - 1 -11.0 -17.3 +6.9
  Nov 30, 2024 243   @ Lehigh L 69-74 42%     4 - 2 -6.7 -0.4 -6.7
  Dec 06, 2024 254   Mount St. Mary's W 53-50 67%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -5.1 -18.1 +13.3
  Dec 08, 2024 298   @ Manhattan W 82-75 52%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +2.9 +7.8 -4.7
  Dec 17, 2024 306   @ Stony Brook W 68-66 55%     7 - 2 -3.1 +6.9 -9.6
  Dec 21, 2024 250   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-73 65%    
  Dec 29, 2024 313   Binghamton W 69-61 77%    
  Jan 03, 2025 259   @ Iona L 66-67 44%    
  Jan 05, 2025 248   Quinnipiac W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 12, 2025 281   Fairfield W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 16, 2025 218   @ St. Peter's L 60-64 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 286   Rider W 67-61 71%    
  Jan 23, 2025 316   @ Niagara W 66-64 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 350   @ Canisius W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 31, 2025 296   Siena W 66-60 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 281   @ Fairfield L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 259   Iona W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 14, 2025 296   @ Siena W 64-63 50%    
  Feb 16, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 61-66 33%    
  Feb 21, 2025 350   Canisius W 74-62 85%    
  Feb 23, 2025 316   Niagara W 69-61 77%    
  Feb 28, 2025 292   @ Sacred Heart W 70-69 50%    
  Mar 02, 2025 218   St. Peter's W 63-61 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 198   Merrimack W 64-63 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 254   @ Mount St. Mary's L 67-69 44%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.5 6.2 6.2 3.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 23.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.9 6.3 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 5.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.1 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.4 0.1 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.2 6.3 9.3 11.8 13.5 14.1 12.5 10.4 7.4 4.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 98.9% 1.9    1.8 0.1
17-3 96.5% 3.9    3.5 0.4 0.0
16-4 83.4% 6.2    4.6 1.5 0.1
15-5 59.4% 6.2    3.3 2.3 0.5 0.1
14-6 27.8% 3.5    1.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 6.8% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 14.9 6.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 55.4% 55.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.6% 43.0% 43.0% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
18-2 1.9% 35.1% 35.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2
17-3 4.1% 30.4% 30.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 2.8
16-4 7.4% 26.1% 26.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 5.5
15-5 10.4% 22.0% 22.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.5 8.1
14-6 12.5% 18.5% 18.5% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 10.2
13-7 14.1% 13.8% 13.8% 15.6 0.0 0.6 1.3 12.2
12-8 13.5% 10.4% 10.4% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 12.1
11-9 11.8% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 11.1
10-10 9.3% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.9
9-11 6.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 6.1
8-12 4.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.1
7-13 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.1 5.3 86.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.8 27.3 63.6 9.1