Richmond
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#209
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#259
Pace65.1#263
Improvement+4.2#25

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#254
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#361
Layup/Dunks-4.2#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
Freethrows+5.4#2
Improvement+0.6#143

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#145
First Shot+2.0#114
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#293
Layups/Dunks+5.4#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#268
Freethrows-0.7#237
Improvement+3.6#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.9
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 9.5% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.1% 13.5% 30.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Home) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 95 - 18
Quad 44 - 49 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 218   Marist L 72-79 63%     0 - 1 -12.9 +2.5 -15.7
  Nov 13, 2024 224   @ Charlotte L 48-65 44%     0 - 2 -17.9 -21.6 +2.1
  Nov 16, 2024 265   @ Bucknell L 76-80 2OT 53%     0 - 3 -7.2 -7.8 +1.4
  Nov 20, 2024 202   Maine W 70-66 59%     1 - 3 -0.7 -0.2 -0.3
  Nov 26, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech L 62-65 31%     1 - 4 -0.3 -4.1 +3.5
  Nov 27, 2024 250   Ball St. W 73-60 60%     2 - 4 +8.0 +5.3 +4.3
  Dec 08, 2024 2   @ Auburn L 54-98 1%     2 - 5 -18.2 -12.2 -4.0
  Dec 14, 2024 139   Belmont L 86-93 45%     2 - 6 -8.2 +2.9 -10.5
  Dec 18, 2024 189   @ William & Mary L 87-93 35%     2 - 7 -4.5 +16.3 -21.1
  Dec 21, 2024 327   VMI W 78-71 84%     3 - 7 -6.1 +4.5 -10.1
  Dec 28, 2024 168   Florida Gulf Coast L 57-75 53%     3 - 8 -21.1 -13.9 -8.3
  Dec 31, 2024 119   George Washington W 66-61 41%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +4.9 -1.9 +7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 171   @ Massachusetts W 72-64 32%     5 - 8 2 - 0 +10.3 +5.1 +5.7
  Jan 08, 2025 86   @ George Mason L 58-64 14%     5 - 9 2 - 1 +3.3 +3.9 -1.7
  Jan 11, 2025 109   Rhode Island L 64-67 OT 38%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -2.3 -10.5 +8.3
  Jan 15, 2025 96   @ St. Bonaventure L 49-63 16%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -5.8 -7.8 -1.5
  Jan 18, 2025 102   Saint Louis L 59-63 36%     5 - 12 2 - 4 -2.7 -16.2 +13.6
  Jan 25, 2025 121   Davidson L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 119   @ George Washington L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 01, 2025 49   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 58-74 7%    
  Feb 05, 2025 116   Duquesne L 63-66 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 121   @ Davidson L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 11, 2025 136   Loyola Chicago L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 221   Fordham W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 19, 2025 191   @ La Salle L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 90   @ Saint Joseph's L 63-74 14%    
  Feb 25, 2025 49   Virginia Commonwealth L 61-71 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 78   @ Dayton L 62-74 12%    
  Mar 08, 2025 86   George Mason L 60-66 29%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 0.2 1.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.8 2.7 0.6 4.1 9th
10th 0.2 3.0 2.6 0.1 5.9 10th
11th 0.1 2.6 5.9 1.0 0.0 9.6 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 8.2 4.1 0.2 14.3 12th
13th 0.1 2.2 9.1 7.7 1.0 20.0 13th
14th 0.3 4.1 11.1 10.7 2.4 0.0 28.6 14th
15th 1.6 4.4 4.4 1.2 0.1 11.6 15th
Total 1.9 8.5 17.7 23.0 21.0 14.8 8.0 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 3.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 13.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.1% 2.8% 2.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
9-9 3.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 3.6
8-10 8.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.9
7-11 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.8
6-12 21.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.0
5-13 23.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.9
4-14 17.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.7
3-15 8.5% 8.5
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%