St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#89
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#41
Pace64.2#304
Improvement+1.2#96

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#124
First Shot-0.5#184
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#47
Layup/Dunks+3.3#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#298
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement+0.6#126

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#76
First Shot+4.7#48
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#232
Layups/Dunks+5.4#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#278
Freethrows+2.0#58
Improvement+0.6#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 11.4% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 2.9% 0.9%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.3
.500 or above 99.3% 99.6% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.5% 84.8% 77.6%
Conference Champion 9.8% 10.5% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.2%
First Four1.7% 1.9% 0.7%
First Round9.6% 10.3% 6.5%
Second Round2.7% 2.9% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Away) - 81.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 6
Quad 38 - 212 - 8
Quad 411 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 148   Cal St. Northridge W 70-56 79%     1 - 0 +11.5 -8.9 +19.2
  Nov 09, 2024 352   @ Canisius W 87-78 92%     2 - 0 -0.7 +17.8 -17.5
  Nov 13, 2024 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 74-65 66%     3 - 0 +11.0 +3.7 +7.5
  Nov 16, 2024 338   Le Moyne W 71-52 96%     4 - 0 +4.9 -1.4 +8.1
  Nov 24, 2024 176   Bryant W 85-70 83%     5 - 0 +11.2 +9.6 +1.6
  Nov 28, 2024 47   Utah St. L 67-72 33%     5 - 1 +5.7 +0.7 +4.9
  Nov 29, 2024 99   Northern Iowa W 68-56 53%     6 - 1 +17.3 +4.5 +14.2
  Dec 04, 2024 260   @ Bucknell W 64-47 79%     7 - 1 +14.5 -1.7 +17.6
  Dec 07, 2024 324   Buffalo W 65-55 95%     8 - 1 -2.2 -7.6 +6.4
  Dec 14, 2024 75   Providence W 74-70 46%     9 - 1 +11.2 +15.6 -3.9
  Dec 17, 2024 283   @ Siena W 69-59 82%    
  Dec 21, 2024 314   Niagara W 75-57 95%    
  Dec 31, 2024 55   Virginia Commonwealth L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 172   @ Fordham W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 08, 2025 135   @ Saint Louis W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 155   La Salle W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 15, 2025 205   Richmond W 72-61 85%    
  Jan 18, 2025 198   @ Duquesne W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 21, 2025 83   George Mason W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 24, 2025 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-69 27%    
  Jan 28, 2025 38   Dayton L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 172   Fordham W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 04, 2025 104   @ Loyola Chicago L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 09, 2025 144   George Washington W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 12, 2025 98   @ Rhode Island L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 200   @ Massachusetts W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 198   Duquesne W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 26, 2025 103   @ Saint Joseph's L 68-70 44%    
  Mar 05, 2025 200   Massachusetts W 77-66 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 124   @ Davidson W 70-69 53%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 4.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.2 4.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.8 5.4 1.6 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.3 0.1 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.6 10.9 13.4 15.4 14.7 12.2 8.7 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.1% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 91.5% 2.0    1.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 63.8% 3.3    1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 31.8% 2.8    0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.7% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.1 3.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 97.6% 43.9% 53.7% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.7%
17-1 0.7% 78.0% 30.6% 47.4% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 68.3%
16-2 2.2% 54.2% 26.5% 27.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.0 37.7%
15-3 5.1% 33.9% 21.1% 12.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 16.3%
14-4 8.7% 22.8% 17.4% 5.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.7 6.5%
13-5 12.2% 14.1% 12.7% 1.4% 11.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.7 10.5 1.6%
12-6 14.7% 9.2% 8.8% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 13.3 0.4%
11-7 15.4% 6.1% 5.9% 0.2% 11.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 14.5 0.2%
10-8 13.4% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 11.7 0.1 0.4 0.0 12.9 0.0%
9-9 10.9% 2.9% 2.9% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 10.6
8-10 7.6% 1.4% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.5
7-11 4.6% 0.8% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 4.6
6-12 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 8.2% 2.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 5.2 3.3 0.1 0.0 89.5 2.6%