Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#58
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#21
Pace67.4#242
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#75
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 3.7% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 7.5% 8.5% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.1% 36.6% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.2% 20.2% 8.1%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.8
.500 or above 94.0% 95.8% 84.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 89.2% 79.3%
Conference Champion 26.8% 28.5% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.9%
First Four4.2% 4.5% 2.5%
First Round31.9% 34.3% 18.6%
Second Round15.6% 17.1% 7.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.4% 6.0% 1.8%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.3% 0.7%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 84.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 36 - 6
Quad 38 - 314 - 9
Quad 47 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 350   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 98%     1 - 0 +14.3 +6.9 +7.2
  Nov 09, 2024 50   Northwestern W 71-66 58%     2 - 0 +11.7 +3.3 +8.5
  Nov 13, 2024 224   Ball St. W 77-69 91%     3 - 0 +1.8 +0.4 +1.4
  Nov 20, 2024 147   New Mexico St. W 74-63 85%    
  Nov 25, 2024 10   North Carolina L 71-79 24%    
  Dec 03, 2024 311   Western Michigan W 81-61 96%    
  Dec 07, 2024 260   Lehigh W 82-65 94%    
  Dec 14, 2024 29   Marquette L 71-72 47%    
  Dec 17, 2024 94   UNLV W 72-66 71%    
  Dec 20, 2024 22   Cincinnati L 68-72 36%    
  Dec 31, 2024 127   La Salle W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 153   @ George Washington W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 08, 2025 109   @ Massachusetts W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 15, 2025 95   George Mason W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 108   Loyola Chicago W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 21, 2025 157   @ Duquesne W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 24, 2025 106   Saint Joseph's W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 28, 2025 113   @ St. Bonaventure W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 31, 2025 102   @ Saint Louis W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 04, 2025 130   Davidson W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 07, 2025 54   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 12, 2025 159   @ Fordham W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 157   Duquesne W 74-63 83%    
  Feb 21, 2025 108   @ Loyola Chicago W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 116   @ Rhode Island W 76-73 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 184   Richmond W 74-61 86%    
  Mar 04, 2025 102   Saint Louis W 78-71 72%    
  Mar 07, 2025 54   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-70 38%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 6.1 7.5 6.1 3.1 0.9 26.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.2 5.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.2 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.3 3.6 0.7 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 3.6 0.8 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.7 1.1 0.1 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.4 5.3 7.5 9.8 11.8 12.9 13.2 12.3 9.6 6.4 3.1 0.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.8% 3.1    3.0 0.1
16-2 95.7% 6.1    5.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 78.5% 7.5    5.1 2.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.3% 6.1    2.6 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.8% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.8% 26.8 17.5 6.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 98.5% 66.4% 32.1% 3.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.6%
17-1 3.1% 94.4% 47.7% 46.7% 5.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 89.2%
16-2 6.4% 86.4% 43.0% 43.4% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 76.1%
15-3 9.6% 72.7% 35.0% 37.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.6 58.0%
14-4 12.3% 55.1% 28.7% 26.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.5 37.0%
13-5 13.2% 37.8% 22.9% 14.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.3 0.9 0.0 8.2 19.4%
12-6 12.9% 23.4% 17.3% 6.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.9 0.0 9.9 7.3%
11-7 11.8% 13.0% 10.1% 2.9% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.2 3.2%
10-8 9.8% 8.8% 7.8% 1.0% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.0 1.1%
9-9 7.5% 3.8% 3.4% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.3 0.4%
8-10 5.3% 3.0% 3.0% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.1%
7-11 3.4% 1.4% 1.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
6-12 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 34.1% 19.4% 14.6% 8.8 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.9 4.8 9.0 3.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 65.9 18.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 33.3 33.3 27.8 5.6