Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#24
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#37
Pace62.8#325
Improvement-0.8#222

Offense
Total Offense+12.1#6
First Shot+10.6#4
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#100
Layup/Dunks+6.0#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#20
Freethrows+1.6#87
Improvement-1.7#278

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#91
First Shot+0.4#167
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#17
Layups/Dunks+0.0#167
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#89
Freethrows-2.8#342
Improvement+0.9#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.5% 2.8% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 14.2% 15.5% 5.4%
Top 6 Seed 41.6% 43.9% 27.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.9% 95.6% 90.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.7% 94.5% 88.6%
Average Seed 6.7 6.6 7.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.2% 96.0%
Conference Champion 18.2% 19.8% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.5% 3.9%
First Round94.0% 94.9% 88.6%
Second Round63.6% 65.3% 53.4%
Sweet Sixteen25.8% 27.2% 17.1%
Elite Eight10.9% 11.6% 6.6%
Final Four4.4% 4.8% 1.6%
Championship Game1.7% 1.8% 0.6%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.1%

Next Game: Butler (Home) - 86.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 6
Quad 27 - 413 - 9
Quad 34 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 295   Sacred Heart W 92-56 98%     1 - 0 +25.6 +9.4 +14.8
  Nov 09, 2024 351   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +23.4 +14.7 +8.9
  Nov 13, 2024 350   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +25.6 +20.1 +10.3
  Nov 19, 2024 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +18.8 -0.5 +18.3
  Nov 25, 2024 43   Memphis L 97-99 OT 63%     4 - 1 +9.5 +24.5 -14.8
  Nov 26, 2024 94   Colorado L 72-73 80%     4 - 2 +5.0 +13.6 -8.7
  Nov 27, 2024 78   Dayton L 67-85 77%     4 - 3 -10.7 +1.2 -13.4
  Nov 30, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99%     5 - 3 +35.9 +18.8 +18.0
  Dec 04, 2024 22   Baylor W 76-72 60%     6 - 3 +16.5 +19.8 -2.6
  Dec 08, 2024 38   @ Texas W 76-65 51%     7 - 3 +25.8 +18.8 +8.2
  Dec 14, 2024 14   Gonzaga W 77-71 44%     8 - 3 +22.7 +10.5 +12.3
  Dec 18, 2024 41   Xavier W 94-89 OT 72%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +13.9 +24.7 -10.8
  Dec 21, 2024 84   @ Butler W 78-74 70%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +13.5 +10.4 +3.1
  Jan 01, 2025 106   @ DePaul W 81-68 80%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +19.3 +14.0 +5.9
  Jan 05, 2025 81   Providence W 87-84 84%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +7.4 +21.9 -14.3
  Jan 08, 2025 42   @ Villanova L 66-68 53%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +12.4 +9.2 +2.8
  Jan 11, 2025 72   @ Georgetown W 68-60 67%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +18.5 +7.8 +11.2
  Jan 18, 2025 33   Creighton L 63-68 68%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +5.2 +7.9 -3.8
  Jan 21, 2025 84   Butler W 80-69 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 41   @ Xavier W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 106   DePaul W 82-68 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 20   @ Marquette L 73-76 37%    
  Feb 07, 2025 16   St. John's W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 11, 2025 33   @ Creighton L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 132   @ Seton Hall W 74-64 83%    
  Feb 18, 2025 42   Villanova W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 23, 2025 16   @ St. John's L 71-75 34%    
  Feb 26, 2025 72   Georgetown W 76-66 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 81   @ Providence W 75-70 67%    
  Mar 04, 2025 20   Marquette W 75-73 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 132   Seton Hall W 77-61 93%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 5.5 7.2 3.5 0.8 18.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 8.9 9.5 2.8 0.1 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.0 9.1 9.9 2.2 0.0 23.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 7.4 8.2 1.6 0.0 19.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 7.8 14.2 20.0 21.5 17.3 10.1 3.6 0.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-3 96.2% 3.5    3.0 0.5
16-4 71.8% 7.2    4.0 2.8 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.9% 5.5    1.2 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.1% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.2% 18.2 9.0 6.4 2.3 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 39.7% 60.3% 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.6% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 3.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 10.1% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 4.4 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-5 17.3% 99.8% 25.9% 73.9% 5.5 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.7 5.1 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 99.8%
14-6 21.5% 99.0% 21.4% 77.6% 6.6 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.7 7.1 3.7 0.9 0.0 0.2 98.8%
13-7 20.0% 97.5% 14.7% 82.8% 7.5 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.5 6.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.5 97.1%
12-8 14.2% 92.4% 11.5% 80.9% 8.3 0.2 0.6 2.1 4.2 3.9 1.9 0.3 1.1 91.4%
11-9 7.8% 82.8% 9.3% 73.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.0 1.8 0.6 1.3 81.1%
10-10 3.4% 69.5% 7.8% 61.6% 9.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.1 66.9%
9-11 1.0% 33.7% 4.2% 29.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 30.8%
8-12 0.2% 12.5% 8.3% 4.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.5%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.9% 19.5% 75.4% 6.7 0.7 1.7 4.2 7.5 11.6 15.8 18.6 16.7 10.7 5.6 1.7 0.0 5.1 93.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 67.7 32.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.3 22.7 36.4 31.8 4.5 4.5