Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.4#1
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#193
Pace62.8#342
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.7#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.9% 7.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 31.0% 31.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 53.1% 53.1% 10.0%
Top 4 Seed 76.6% 76.6% 40.0%
Top 6 Seed 87.9% 87.9% 50.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.8% 97.8% 90.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.7% 95.7% 83.3%
Average Seed 3.1 3.1 5.6
.500 or above 99.8% 99.8% 90.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.4% 90.0%
Conference Champion 68.6% 68.6% 40.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round97.6% 97.6% 90.0%
Second Round89.5% 89.5% 70.0%
Sweet Sixteen66.2% 66.2% 20.0%
Elite Eight44.7% 44.7% 0.0%
Final Four28.4% 28.4% 0.0%
Championship Game17.5% 17.5% 0.0%
National Champion10.6% 10.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 4
Quad 28 - 116 - 5
Quad 35 - 021 - 5
Quad 45 - 026 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 335   Sacred Heart W 92-56 99%     1 - 0 +22.6 +9.0 +12.2
  Nov 09, 2024 326   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +26.6 +15.4 +11.4
  Nov 13, 2024 337   Le Moyne W 90-49 99.5%    3 - 0 +27.1 +20.4 +11.7
  Nov 19, 2024 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 85-48 100.0%   
  Nov 25, 2024 34   Memphis W 78-69 80%    
  Nov 30, 2024 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-49 100.0%   
  Dec 04, 2024 13   Baylor W 73-65 77%    
  Dec 08, 2024 23   @ Texas W 71-66 66%    
  Dec 14, 2024 4   Gonzaga W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 18, 2024 41   Xavier W 80-67 87%    
  Dec 21, 2024 93   @ Butler W 76-64 85%    
  Jan 01, 2025 114   @ DePaul W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 05, 2025 84   Providence W 73-57 92%    
  Jan 08, 2025 77   @ Villanova W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 11, 2025 105   @ Georgetown W 76-63 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 16   Creighton W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 21, 2025 93   Butler W 79-61 94%    
  Jan 25, 2025 41   @ Xavier W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 29, 2025 114   DePaul W 81-61 96%    
  Feb 01, 2025 29   @ Marquette W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 07, 2025 18   St. John's W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 11, 2025 16   @ Creighton W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 97   @ Seton Hall W 68-56 85%    
  Feb 18, 2025 77   Villanova W 76-60 92%    
  Feb 23, 2025 18   @ St. John's W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 26, 2025 105   Georgetown W 79-60 94%    
  Mar 01, 2025 84   @ Providence W 70-60 82%    
  Mar 04, 2025 29   Marquette W 75-64 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 97   Seton Hall W 71-53 94%    
Projected Record 24 - 5 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.6 9.7 14.7 17.2 15.0 7.4 68.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 5.4 5.0 2.4 0.5 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.7 7.4 10.4 15.0 17.2 17.7 15.0 7.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 7.4    7.4
19-1 100.0% 15.0    14.8 0.2
18-2 97.2% 17.2    15.8 1.4 0.0
17-3 85.9% 14.7    11.7 2.9 0.1
16-4 64.5% 9.7    5.9 3.3 0.5 0.0
15-5 34.7% 3.6    1.5 1.5 0.5 0.1
14-6 12.6% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 68.6% 68.6 57.3 9.8 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 7.4% 100.0% 74.7% 25.3% 1.2 6.0 1.3 0.1 100.0%
19-1 15.0% 100.0% 67.2% 32.8% 1.4 10.4 4.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 17.7% 100.0% 60.4% 39.6% 1.7 8.7 6.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.2% 100.0% 52.3% 47.7% 2.3 4.4 6.2 4.0 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.0% 99.9% 43.1% 56.8% 3.3 1.3 3.3 4.2 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 10.4% 99.3% 36.1% 63.2% 4.5 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
14-6 7.4% 98.1% 30.2% 67.9% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.3%
13-7 4.7% 93.8% 22.7% 71.0% 7.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 91.9%
12-8 2.6% 87.1% 19.4% 67.7% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 84.0%
11-9 1.4% 72.9% 13.4% 59.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 68.8%
10-10 0.7% 42.4% 10.7% 31.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 35.5%
9-11 0.3% 20.2% 3.8% 16.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 17.0%
8-12 0.1% 7.1% 4.8% 2.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5%
7-13 0.1% 6.5% 3.2% 3.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3%
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.8% 49.6% 48.3% 3.1 31.0 22.1 13.7 9.8 6.5 4.9 3.8 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 95.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 1.1 87.2 12.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 86.4 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 83.1 16.9