Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#9
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#42
Pace62.8#327
Improvement+1.6#78

Offense
Total Offense+12.5#3
First Shot+11.9#2
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#148
Layup/Dunks+8.1#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#36
Freethrows+2.2#64
Improvement+0.4#152

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#52
First Shot+3.5#79
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#69
Layups/Dunks+2.0#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#95
Freethrows-1.7#295
Improvement+1.2#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.0% 2.3% 0.7%
#1 Seed 12.2% 13.6% 5.1%
Top 2 Seed 28.4% 31.0% 14.7%
Top 4 Seed 60.6% 64.1% 42.1%
Top 6 Seed 81.6% 84.3% 67.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 98.8% 95.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.4% 98.1% 94.0%
Average Seed 4.1 3.9 5.1
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.8% 94.4%
Conference Champion 49.6% 53.3% 30.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.8%
First Round97.9% 98.6% 94.8%
Second Round83.6% 85.2% 75.2%
Sweet Sixteen52.5% 54.3% 43.2%
Elite Eight28.0% 29.4% 21.1%
Final Four14.3% 15.1% 10.4%
Championship Game7.0% 7.4% 4.6%
National Champion3.2% 3.4% 2.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Home) - 83.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 6
Quad 27 - 315 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 9
Quad 45 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 277   Sacred Heart W 92-56 98%     1 - 0 +26.9 +10.4 +15.1
  Nov 09, 2024 354   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +23.1 +14.9 +8.3
  Nov 13, 2024 338   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +26.9 +21.9 +10.0
  Nov 19, 2024 357   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99.5%    4 - 0 +18.5 -1.5 +19.0
  Nov 25, 2024 34   Memphis L 97-99 OT 69%     4 - 1 +10.3 +22.8 -12.5
  Nov 26, 2024 73   Colorado L 72-73 82%     4 - 2 +6.5 +13.8 -7.4
  Nov 27, 2024 38   Dayton L 67-85 71%     4 - 3 -6.2 +2.9 -10.6
  Nov 30, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99.5%    5 - 3 +37.0 +19.0 +18.8
  Dec 04, 2024 12   Baylor W 76-72 67%     6 - 3 +16.9 +18.3 -0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 33   @ Texas W 76-65 58%     7 - 3 +26.3 +19.8 +7.7
  Dec 14, 2024 3   Gonzaga W 77-71 40%     8 - 3 +26.2 +13.3 +13.0
  Dec 18, 2024 53   Xavier W 79-69 84%    
  Dec 21, 2024 74   @ Butler W 77-70 75%    
  Jan 01, 2025 88   @ DePaul W 77-69 78%    
  Jan 05, 2025 75   Providence W 75-62 89%    
  Jan 08, 2025 48   @ Villanova W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 90   @ Georgetown W 76-68 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 36   Creighton W 77-69 78%    
  Jan 21, 2025 74   Butler W 80-67 89%    
  Jan 25, 2025 53   @ Xavier W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 29, 2025 88   DePaul W 80-66 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 13   @ Marquette L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 07, 2025 15   St. John's W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 11, 2025 36   @ Creighton W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 117   @ Seton Hall W 69-57 85%    
  Feb 18, 2025 48   Villanova W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 23, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 90   Georgetown W 79-65 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 75   @ Providence W 72-65 74%    
  Mar 04, 2025 13   Marquette W 77-72 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 117   Seton Hall W 72-54 94%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.9 11.4 12.7 9.7 4.8 1.3 49.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.6 7.7 4.6 1.3 0.2 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.7 4.0 1.3 0.2 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.9 6.6 10.1 13.3 15.9 16.2 14.1 9.9 4.8 1.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
19-1 100.0% 4.8    4.8 0.0
18-2 98.4% 9.7    9.2 0.5
17-3 90.6% 12.7    10.7 1.9 0.1
16-4 70.6% 11.4    7.6 3.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 43.4% 6.9    3.1 3.0 0.8 0.1
14-6 17.8% 2.4    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 49.6% 49.6 37.3 10.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.3% 100.0% 60.7% 39.3% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.8% 100.0% 53.2% 46.8% 1.4 3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 9.9% 100.0% 49.1% 50.9% 1.8 4.2 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 14.1% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 2.4 2.8 5.5 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.2% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 3.1 1.1 3.4 5.9 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.9% 100.0% 33.0% 66.9% 4.1 0.2 1.2 3.8 5.4 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 13.3% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.0 4.1 3.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.1% 99.6% 23.2% 76.3% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.8 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-8 6.6% 98.8% 19.3% 79.5% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.6%
11-9 3.9% 95.5% 14.8% 80.7% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.2 94.7%
10-10 2.2% 84.4% 10.7% 73.7% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 82.5%
9-11 1.2% 61.8% 10.1% 51.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 57.5%
8-12 0.5% 19.7% 4.2% 15.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 16.2%
7-13 0.2% 8.2% 7.1% 1.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.3% 33.9% 64.4% 4.1 12.2 16.1 16.9 15.3 11.7 9.2 7.2 4.7 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.0 1.7 97.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.2 80.3 19.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 71.1 27.3 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 65.9 31.8 2.3