Creighton
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#36
Expected Predictive Rating+9.1#66
Pace71.4#107
Improvement+1.6#75

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#46
First Shot+9.2#6
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#341
Layup/Dunks+5.1#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#12
Freethrows+1.0#117
Improvement+0.5#135

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#31
First Shot+8.3#6
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#320
Layups/Dunks+3.8#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#94
Freethrows+5.4#2
Improvement+1.1#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 5.4% 7.4% 2.3%
Top 6 Seed 15.0% 19.3% 8.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.9% 66.8% 46.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.8% 63.0% 42.6%
Average Seed 7.9 7.7 8.5
.500 or above 86.0% 91.6% 77.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 83.5% 63.3%
Conference Champion 8.8% 11.7% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.5% 3.0%
First Four7.5% 7.2% 7.9%
First Round55.2% 63.2% 42.7%
Second Round31.7% 37.1% 23.4%
Sweet Sixteen11.4% 13.8% 7.5%
Elite Eight4.4% 5.3% 3.0%
Final Four1.5% 2.0% 0.9%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 9
Quad 26 - 410 - 13
Quad 35 - 115 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 233   UT Rio Grande Valley W 99-86 95%     1 - 0 +6.2 +12.8 -7.7
  Nov 10, 2024 339   Fairleigh Dickinson W 96-70 98%     2 - 0 +11.8 +3.7 +5.4
  Nov 13, 2024 356   Houston Christian W 78-43 99%     3 - 0 +18.9 -1.2 +21.4
  Nov 16, 2024 271   UMKC W 79-56 96%     4 - 0 +14.1 +2.2 +11.8
  Nov 22, 2024 52   Nebraska L 63-74 68%     4 - 1 -3.8 -7.0 +3.4
  Nov 26, 2024 45   San Diego St. L 53-71 54%     4 - 2 -7.0 -9.2 +0.8
  Nov 27, 2024 24   Texas A&M L 73-77 43%     4 - 3 +9.9 +6.9 +3.1
  Nov 30, 2024 81   Notre Dame W 80-76 69%     5 - 3 +10.8 +10.0 +0.8
  Dec 04, 2024 10   Kansas W 76-63 41%     6 - 3 +27.4 +10.7 +16.7
  Dec 07, 2024 113   UNLV W 83-65 86%     7 - 3 +18.5 +14.1 +5.4
  Dec 14, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 75-83 19%     7 - 4 +13.5 +4.9 +9.1
  Dec 18, 2024 90   @ Georgetown W 75-72 61%    
  Dec 21, 2024 48   Villanova W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 31, 2024 15   St. John's L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 03, 2025 13   @ Marquette L 72-78 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 74   @ Butler W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 14, 2025 75   Providence W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 9   @ Connecticut L 69-77 22%    
  Jan 21, 2025 88   @ DePaul W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 117   Seton Hall W 70-58 87%    
  Jan 29, 2025 53   Xavier W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 48   @ Villanova L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 75   @ Providence W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 13   Marquette L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 11, 2025 9   Connecticut L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 16, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 23, 2025 90   Georgetown W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 26, 2025 88   DePaul W 79-70 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 53   @ Xavier L 75-76 47%    
  Mar 04, 2025 117   @ Seton Hall W 67-61 71%    
  Mar 08, 2025 74   Butler W 78-70 75%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.7 4.6 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.1 3.8 1.1 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.1 6.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 17.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.1 5.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.0 4.2 1.5 0.1 10.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.2 1.0 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.2 6.6 9.5 11.9 13.3 13.6 12.6 10.0 7.0 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 96.4% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 87.3% 1.7    1.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 61.4% 2.6    1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 32.7% 2.3    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 10.4% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.9 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 2.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.0% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 3.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 4.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 7.0% 99.4% 19.5% 79.9% 6.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.3%
14-6 10.0% 97.3% 14.8% 82.5% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.7 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.8%
13-7 12.6% 91.3% 11.8% 79.5% 8.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.2 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 1.1 90.1%
12-8 13.6% 80.1% 8.2% 71.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.2 3.0 1.5 0.0 2.7 78.3%
11-9 13.3% 57.5% 6.3% 51.2% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.5 2.8 0.1 5.7 54.6%
10-10 11.9% 32.8% 4.2% 28.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.2 0.3 8.0 29.8%
9-11 9.5% 9.7% 3.3% 6.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 8.6 6.6%
8-12 6.6% 1.9% 1.6% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 0.3%
7-13 4.2% 1.2% 1.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
6-14 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
5-15 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 58.9% 9.0% 49.9% 7.9 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.2 5.4 7.9 9.3 9.5 8.9 7.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.1 54.8%