Houston Christian
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#316
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#305
Pace65.5#254
Improvement+4.6#20

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#294
First Shot-2.9#266
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#279
Layup/Dunks+2.0#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#263
Freethrows+0.9#125
Improvement+1.1#111

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#299
First Shot-5.6#341
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#84
Layups/Dunks-10.0#364
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#60
Freethrows+0.6#138
Improvement+3.5#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.9 15.8
.500 or above 1.3% 3.2% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 36.0% 55.1% 27.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.4% 1.5%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 30.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 49 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 38   @ Texas L 59-90 2%     0 - 1 -16.2 -4.1 -13.4
  Nov 13, 2024 33   @ Creighton L 43-78 2%     0 - 2 -19.3 -20.4 -0.2
  Nov 22, 2024 192   Rice L 58-61 32%     0 - 3 -7.1 -8.8 +1.2
  Nov 25, 2024 313   Eastern Michigan L 73-74 60%     0 - 4 -12.4 -2.3 -10.2
  Nov 27, 2024 264   Northern Arizona L 71-74 49%     0 - 5 -11.6 -0.7 -11.2
  Nov 30, 2024 229   @ Texas San Antonio L 71-78 23%     0 - 6 -8.1 -0.1 -8.4
  Dec 05, 2024 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-79 76%     1 - 6 1 - 0 -12.2 +4.4 -16.6
  Dec 07, 2024 289   Northwestern St. L 57-64 54%     1 - 7 1 - 1 -17.0 -12.3 -5.8
  Dec 17, 2024 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-68 52%     2 - 7 -3.3 -2.4 -1.0
  Dec 20, 2024 21   @ Texas A&M L 45-77 1%     2 - 8 -13.9 -11.8 -6.4
  Dec 22, 2024 65   @ North Texas L 46-62 4%     2 - 9 -4.8 -7.9 -1.0
  Jan 04, 2025 231   @ Lamar L 61-63 23%     2 - 10 1 - 2 -3.2 -7.4 +4.1
  Jan 06, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin W 83-73 26%     3 - 10 2 - 2 +7.8 +12.6 -5.0
  Jan 11, 2025 303   Incarnate Word W 81-76 57%     4 - 10 3 - 2 -5.7 +11.1 -16.1
  Jan 13, 2025 74   McNeese St. L 59-75 11%     4 - 11 3 - 3 -11.3 -10.2 -1.2
  Jan 18, 2025 247   UT Rio Grande Valley W 66-57 45%     5 - 11 4 - 3 +1.5 -11.7 +13.1
  Jan 20, 2025 169   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 25, 2025 343   @ New Orleans W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 27, 2025 220   @ SE Louisiana L 64-72 20%    
  Feb 01, 2025 303   @ Incarnate Word L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 03, 2025 205   @ Nicholls St. L 67-76 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 343   New Orleans W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 10, 2025 220   SE Louisiana L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 247   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-77 26%    
  Feb 17, 2025 169   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-78 14%    
  Feb 22, 2025 231   Lamar L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 24, 2025 249   Stephen F. Austin L 64-65 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 289   @ Northwestern St. L 65-69 33%    
  Mar 03, 2025 354   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 69-67 56%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.2 3rd
4th 0.6 3.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.6 4.6 1.2 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.5 4.8 7.7 1.8 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.3 4.4 9.2 3.2 0.1 17.2 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 8.5 4.8 0.3 16.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 6.9 5.0 0.4 14.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.5 2.9 7.8 14.0 19.0 19.8 16.5 10.2 5.7 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.9% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-7 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.5
12-8 5.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.7
11-9 10.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.1
10-10 16.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.4
9-11 19.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.7
8-12 19.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.0
7-13 14.0% 14.0
6-14 7.8% 7.8
5-15 2.9% 2.9
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%