Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.2 288
Results Rating -7.0 276
Consistency 0.14 110
Pace 61.8 341
Improvement +2.6 89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 272 D+ D+ C- D C
Defense D+ 274 D D C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 128 C- 56% 233 +0.1 179
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 115 D+ 35% 282 -0.1 184
Three Pointers 37% 251 D 31% 296 -3.4 294
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 202 D+ -3.3 295
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 283
Second Chance C- 28.8% 227 D- 0.91 334 D+ 0.26 292
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 185
Other Turnovers D+ 8.2% 305
Turnovers C- 17.7% 248
Freethrows D+ 0.27 271 D 69% 285 D 0.19 298
Total Offense D+ -3.9 272

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B 56% 74 D+ 12.7% 283
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 102 C 5.2% 200
Three Pointers C 84% 190 B+ 0.2% 21
Total B- 59% 106 D+ 6.3% 269


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 51 D- 65% 335 +6.0 351
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 306 C+ 37% 130 -1.7 50
Three Pointers 40% 219 D+ 36% 266 +0.5 204
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 334 D +3.6 317
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 330
Second Chance D 33.2% 298 D 1.12 296 D 0.37 316
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.3% 115
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 150
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 115
Freethrows C+ 0.29 138 C- 73% 243 C+ 0.21 149
Total Defense D+ -3.4 274

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 321 C 11.0% 168
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 198 C 4.8% 183
Three Pointers D+ 88% 293 B 1.6% 59
Total D 61% 305 C+ 6.3% 128

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 339 17.4 192
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 274 0.19 237
Consistency 0.16 354 0.12 156
Improvement -1.7 274 +4.3 20

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 293 286 268
Results Rating Rank 290 285 246
Conference Record 8 - 14 8 - 14 8 - 14
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 49 - 911 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 133 @UC San Diego L 60 - 78 13% -13  17% 0 - 1 D- -13 F -10 C+ F F C- -3 F+ C B-
 Thu, Nov 13 354 Louisiana Monroe W 72 - 61 83% -3  32% 1 - 1 D+ -6 F -14 F F B- A- +7 C- A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 285 Bellarmine L 69 - 74 49% +1  48% 1 - 2 D- -12 D- -8 F B+ B D -5 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 343 @The Citadel W 72 - 65 60% +6  96% 2 - 2 C- -3 B +6 B- B- D D- -7 D+ F D
 Sat, Nov 29 257 @Georgia Southern L 62 - 80 32% -6  6% 2 - 3 F -20 F -14 F+ F+ F D- -8 F D F+
 Tue, Dec 2 136 @North Texas L 75 - 77 14% -1  35% 2 - 4 C+ +2 A+ +16 A+ F A+ F -13 F F+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 196 @New Orleans W 85 - 76 22% +4  77% 3 - 4 1 - 0 B +10 A +14 C+ A- A+ D+ -4 D- B+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 287 SE Louisiana L 71 - 74 OT 61% -3  4% 3 - 5 1 - 1 D- -13 D- -7 C- D F+ D- -6 D D+ C+
 Mon, Dec 15 82 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 15% +1  56% 3 - 6 1 - 2 D+ -6 B +6 D B+ A+ F -14 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 249 @Nicholls St. L 64 - 79 30% -11  0% 3 - 7 1 - 3 F+ -17 F -11 D+ F+ F D -6 D- D F
 Mon, Dec 29 10 @Iowa St. L 61 - 89 1% -12  2% 3 - 8 D+ -5 C +1 B F B D- -8 A F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 262 @Incarnate Word L 56 - 73 33% -9  0% 3 - 9 1 - 4 F -20 F -21 F F F C +0 D+ B+ F+
 Mon, Jan 5 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 81 41% -8  10% 3 - 10 1 - 5 F -21 F+ -9 F+ C+ F F -12 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 101 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 85 9% -15  0% 3 - 11 1 - 6 D -10 B- +4 A- D F F -17 F+ F D-
 Mon, Jan 12 245 @Lamar L 56 - 64 30% +1  59% 3 - 12 1 - 7 D -10 F -11 F D- D+ C+ +1 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 17 306 East Texas A&M W 81 - 70 67% -3  25% 4 - 12 2 - 7 C -1 B- +4 C+ C+ F+ D+ -4 F B B
 Mon, Jan 19 277 Northwestern St. W 82 - 80 58% -4  4% 5 - 12 3 - 7 D+ -7 A+ +25 A+ A+ C- F -32 F F D
 Sat, Jan 24 143 UT Rio Grande Valley L 51 - 68 30% -8  10% 5 - 13 3 - 8 F -19 F -17 C D- F D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 262 Incarnate Word W 81 - 75 56% -6  21% 6 - 13 4 - 8 C- -3 D+ -3 F A F+ C+ +0 F+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 188 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 73 21% -0  45% 6 - 14 4 - 9 C -1 A- +10 A+ F C F -11 F A- C+
 Mon, Feb 2 143 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 57 - 74 15% -15  0% 6 - 15 4 - 10 D- -13 F+ -9 F+ F A D- -6 B- F A
 Sat, Feb 7 287 @SE Louisiana L 47 - 55 39% -6  1% 6 - 16 4 - 11 D- -12 F -16 F F D B- +2 F+ D+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 82 @McNeese St. L 69 - 73 6% -5  4% 6 - 17 4 - 12 B- +6 C+ +2 D+ D+ B B +4 F+ A- B+
 Sat, Feb 14 196 New Orleans W 61 - 60 42% +1  45% 7 - 17 5 - 12 C- -4 F -10 D C- F B+ +6 A- C D-
 Mon, Feb 16 249 Nicholls St. W 72 - 68 52% +5  77% 8 - 17 6 - 12 C- -4 D -4 F C- A+ C+ +1 A F D+
 Sat, Feb 21 277 @Northwestern St. L 53 - 71 36% -10  10% 8 - 18 6 - 13 F -21 F -17 F D- F D -6 C F+ F
 Mon, Feb 23 306 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 68 44% +8  83% 9 - 18 7 - 13 C- -5 C- -1 F+ B C D+ -4 C+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 28 101 Stephen F. Austin L 56 - 77 20% -18  0% 9 - 19 7 - 14 F -19 F -11 F B+ C+ F -10 D+ F B-
 Mon, Mar 2 245 Lamar W 75 - 53 52% +8  80% 10 - 19 8 - 14 B+ +14 C +2 B D- F+ A+ +14 A+ C- A-
 Sun, Mar 8 196 New Orleans L 71 - 76 31%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 14 -7 D+ -4 C+ D+ C D+ -3 D D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D+ D D+ 40% 43% 37% C D+ C- D- D+ C- D+ D D D+ D- C+ D+ D 44% 17% 40% D D D D D C+ C+ C- C+
1.03 56% 35% 31% -3 0 0.95 29% 0.9 .26 18% .27 69% .19 1.13 65% 37% 36% +4 +1 1.11 33% 1.1 .37 18% .29 73% .20
Nov
8		 UC San Diego F B+ F C- C+ 34% 22% 44% C- C+ F F F F C F F C- D- C F F 36% 16% 48% B- F+ C C C B- B F C+
0.86 65% 27% 32% -2 0 0.98 19% 0.9 .16 23% .26 36% .09 1.12 67% 38% 42% +9 0 1.20 27% 1.0 .27 17% .23 77% .17
Nov
13		 Louisiana Monroe F D F+ D F 45% 11% 45% B F F+ F F B- F A+ D- A- C+ C C+ C- 43% 15% 42% F+ C- A+ C+ A+ A A+ F A+
1.03 56% 33% 32% -3 +2 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 14% .17 80% .13 0.87 52% 38% 32% -4 +1 0.96 12% 1.0 .12 21% .13 86% .11
Nov
25		 Bellarmine D- A- F C F 32% 25% 43% D F D- A+ B+ B A+ F F D F A+ F+ F 45% 19% 36% B F A+ A+ A+ B F F F
1.13 71% 18% 37% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.7 .50 13% .45 38% .17 1.21 89% 25% 40% +15 +1 1.33 6% 0.0 .00 18% .40 90% .36
Nov
26		 The Citadel B A+ A+ D B- 38% 13% 49% C B- C+ B- B- D C- F D D- C- A+ F+ D+ 30% 15% 55% C- D+ F+ F F D B F D+
1.23 82% 50% 32% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 17% .27 62% .16 1.11 57% 0% 38% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.2 .39 15% .22 91% .20
Nov
29		 Georgia Southern F D F F F 52% 9% 39% B+ F+ D F F+ F F F F D- D+ A+ F F 46% 9% 44% D- F D- C+ D F+ B- A+ A
0.93 54% 25% 28% -7 +3 0.93 30% 0.8 .24 22% .29 67% .19 1.20 60% 20% 42% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.1 .35 12% .31 56% .17
Dec
2		 North Texas A+ A C+ A+ A+ 39% 18% 43% B- A+ F F F A+ A+ F A F D- A+ F F 61% 5% 34% F F C- F F+ A+ F+ A+ B+
1.21 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.23 21% 0.3 .06 6% .55 59% .33 1.24 64% 0% 64% +17 +4 1.44 35% 1.2 .42 24% .40 47% .19
Dec
6		 New Orleans A C- B- B- C+ 46% 19% 35% C+ C+ C+ A A- A+ A+ B A+ D+ C- A+ F D 44% 12% 44% F D- A- C+ B+ F C+ A+ B+
1.29 55% 44% 35% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.3 .45 8% .49 77% .38 1.15 59% 17% 41% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 14% .35 65% .23
Dec
13		 SE Louisiana D- C- F C D 48% 12% 40% A C- B- F D F+ D F F+ D- C B- C- D 39% 24% 37% C- D D+ D+ D+ C+ F D- F
1.01 58% 17% 35% -2 +2 1.02 34% 0.8 .29 23% .33 67% .22 1.05 58% 33% 33% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .30 19% .44 72% .31
Dec
15		 McNeese St. B F F A+ D+ 27% 27% 47% F+ D C- A+ B+ A+ D A C F F D A+ F 46% 19% 35% C- F B F F C A+ D+ A+
1.13 42% 17% 43% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.3 .46 17% .34 82% .28 1.30 86% 44% 24% +9 +1 1.21 30% 2.1 .65 13% .17 78% .13
Dec
17		 Nicholls St. F C B- F D- 62% 17% 21% B+ D+ F A+ F+ F A+ F B+ D F F B+ D- 39% 19% 42% C+ D- C F D F A+ F A-
0.93 62% 43% 22% -1 +2 1.05 19% 1.4 .27 26% .49 64% .31 1.14 68% 45% 29% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.2 .31 10% .18 73% .13
Dec
29		 Iowa St. C A+ C+ D A- 19% 45% 36% F B F A+ F B A A+ A+ D- F A+ A+ A+ 41% 25% 34% B A F F F C- F D+ F
0.92 89% 38% 29% +3 -4 1.00 10% 1.3 .13 21% .32 82% .27 1.34 83% 9% 27% -1 0 1.00 53% 1.4 .75 14% .66 71% .47
Jan
3		 Incarnate Word F F F F F 53% 19% 28% C+ F C F F F F F F C F+ F+ A C- 36% 20% 45% D+ D+ A C- B+ F+ A- D B
0.84 50% 30% 27% -9 +1 0.87 32% 0.3 .10 21% .21 55% .11 1.09 65% 45% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 12% .20 75% .15
Jan
5		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F+ B F+ F F+ 35% 20% 45% D+ F+ B- C- C+ F D C+ D+ F D- F B- F 46% 23% 31% C F F D+ F D+ A- F+ B
0.94 65% 30% 23% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.0 .32 25% .36 74% .27 1.17 63% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 45% 1.0 .45 16% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Stephen F. Austin B- A C+ C- A- 45% 17% 38% B- A- C+ F D F A- A A+ F F F C+ D- 40% 8% 52% F F+ F B+ F D- C+ F D+
1.07 68% 43% 31% +4 +1 1.12 30% 0.9 .26 22% .35 82% .29 1.36 67% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 49% 0.9 .43 10% .21 83% .18
Jan
12		 Lamar F F+ F F F 43% 21% 36% C F B F D- D+ A- C- B+ C+ D B+ F+ F+ 36% 21% 43% F F B+ B- B A+ F D F
0.90 50% 22% 27% -11 0 0.81 36% 0.6 .23 19% .46 70% .32 1.03 60% 33% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .25 26% .50 74% .37
Jan
17		 East Texas A&M B- D- D A+ C+ 43% 13% 43% C+ C+ B- C- C+ F+ A+ D- A+ D+ F+ A- F F 38% 15% 48% D+ F F+ A+ B B D- A+ C+
1.18 50% 33% 45% +3 +1 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 20% .55 67% .37 1.02 67% 29% 39% +6 +1 1.15 30% 0.6 .18 20% .29 50% .15
Jan
19		 Northwestern St. A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B- A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ C A+ F F+ F D- F 46% 15% 39% F F F F+ F D F D- F
1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35 1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40
Jan
24		 UT Rio Grande Valley F D C+ B+ C+ 37% 24% 39% C- C C F D- F F F F D+ F+ A+ F F 58% 4% 38% F F A A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+
0.84 53% 40% 38% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.6 .18 31% .19 63% .12 1.12 68% 0% 44% +10 +4 1.29 20% 0.4 .08 18% .08 100% .08
Jan
27		 Incarnate Word D+ D- F F F 61% 15% 24% B+ F A+ C- A F+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ F F F+ 39% 18% 43% D- F+ F A+ C A+ F A+ F+
1.12 54% 29% 27% -7 +2 0.93 45% 1.1 .48 19% .64 78% .50 1.04 37% 56% 48% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.7 .30 28% .42 59% .25
Jan
31		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- C B- A+ A+ 29% 24% 46% F+ A+ B F F C C A+ A- F F A+ F+ F 60% 13% 28% F F F A+ A- C+ F C F+
1.17 58% 40% 53% +13 -1 1.27 34% 0.2 .07 20% .41 85% .35 1.20 71% 17% 38% +7 +3 1.21 37% 0.5 .19 18% .42 67% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 UT Rio Grande Valley F+ F C+ D+ F 42% 20% 38% C+ F+ D+ F F A F A- F D- A- A D+ B 41% 9% 50% F+ B- F F F A F F F
0.92 43% 40% 32% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.3 .10 11% .24 77% .18 1.20 50% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 47% 1.3 .59 23% .38 94% .36
Feb
7		 SE Louisiana F F+ F F F 46% 23% 31% C+ F B+ F F D C- C C- B- D- F C+ F 34% 27% 39% C+ F+ F B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+
0.83 50% 11% 25% -14 0 0.74 37% 0.5 .17 21% .36 75% .27 0.97 64% 45% 31% +2 -1 1.05 37% 0.8 .30 28% .17 57% .10
Feb
9		 McNeese St. C+ C A- F D+ 40% 23% 36% C- D+ D- C+ D+ B C- A+ B+ B D+ F B F+ 60% 19% 21% F+ F+ A+ F+ A- B+ C B C+
1.02 58% 45% 24% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 22% .36 89% .32 1.08 62% 56% 30% +4 +2 1.15 22% 1.2 .26 16% .30 71% .21
Feb
14		 New Orleans F B- A F D+ 33% 26% 41% D- D F+ A C- F F C- F B+ B- B- A+ A 54% 29% 17% D+ A- C- C+ C D- B+ A+ A+
0.98 60% 50% 21% -4 -1 0.91 27% 1.2 .33 19% .28 71% .20 0.97 54% 36% 13% -8 0 0.85 36% 1.0 .36 16% .31 56% .17
Feb
16		 Nicholls St. D D+ D+ F F 39% 35% 27% F F F A+ C- A+ A D- B+ C+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 24% 33% B- A B F F D+ F F+ F
1.07 58% 35% 23% -5 -2 0.88 25% 1.4 .36 10% .43 73% .31 1.01 43% 50% 19% -11 0 0.80 22% 1.8 .38 15% .42 71% .30
Feb
21		 Northwestern St. F F D+ D F 39% 25% 36% D F F+ B D- F F D- F D D+ D+ A+ C- 40% 35% 25% B C C+ F F+ F D+ D- D
0.84 35% 36% 31% -11 -1 0.80 24% 1.2 .30 22% .24 67% .16 1.12 58% 41% 25% -2 -2 0.94 23% 1.6 .37 11% .34 79% .27
Feb
23		 East Texas A&M C- C D F F 43% 18% 39% C- F+ A- D+ B C D+ D- D D+ C+ B- A- B- 40% 15% 45% D+ C+ F F F A+ F F F
1.08 57% 33% 26% -6 +1 0.92 41% 1.1 .43 17% .28 67% .19 1.06 56% 33% 28% -6 +1 0.93 34% 1.8 .62 23% .35 76% .26
Feb
28		 Stephen F. Austin F C B F F 44% 23% 33% C F C- A+ B+ C+ C- F D F D- B C C- 33% 19% 48% D- D+ D- F F B- D+ F D-
0.89 57% 45% 0% -16 0 0.71 27% 1.5 .41 16% .27 64% .17 1.23 63% 33% 35% +1 0 1.04 38% 1.3 .50 14% .26 79% .21
Mar
2		 Lamar C B- A+ C- B- 52% 15% 33% B+ B C F D- F+ A- B+ A A+ A A+ A+ A+ 43% 22% 35% F A+ D- C+ C- A- D+ A+ B-
1.12 63% 57% 33% +5 +2 1.15 31% 0.8 .23 21% .45 75% .34 0.79 43% 18% 18% -20 0 0.63 38% 0.9 .33 21% .25 54% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14 100.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.2 99.9
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.8%
Lose Out 59.2%