Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.8 298
Expected Predictive Rating -9.3 309
Pace 61.8 344
Improvement +0.8 151

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #241 C- D C- D+ C
Defense D #322 F+ D+ C+ C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 113 56% 220 +0.8 149
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 164 33% 323 -0.8 222
Three Pointers 38% 248 34% 176 -1.6 240
1st FG Attempt 0.99 222 -1.6 222
Second Chance 29.3% 215 0.83 357 0.24 327
Turnovers 17.7% 229
Freethrows 0.28 259 69% 274 0.19 279
Total Offense -2.6 241

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 65 67% 357 -6.7 357
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 329 37% 147 +2.1 35
Three Pointers 41% 170 37% 332 -2.4 293
1st FG Attempt 1.16 358 -7.0 358
Second Chance 33.3% 295 1.06 248 0.35 281
Turnovers 17.8% 125
Freethrows 0.28 96 73% 245 0.21 122
Total Defense -5.3 322

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.1 181 +1.0 344
Shot Type Accuracy -1.7 230 +5.8 357
Possession Length 19.1 336 17.6 241
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 250 0.20 278
Improvement +0.0 #181 +0.8 #133

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 58% 42% 71%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 44.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 47 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 139 @UC San Diego L 60 - 78 13% -13  17% 0 - 1 D- -14 F -11 C+ F F C- -3 F+ C B-
 Thu, Nov 13 356 Louisiana Monroe W 72 - 61 82% -3  32% 1 - 1 D+ -7 F -12 F+ F B- B +6 D+ A A-
 Tue, Nov 25 283 Bellarmine L 69 - 74 47% +1  48% 1 - 2 D- -12 D -6 F+ B+ B D -7 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 347 @The Citadel W 72 - 65 56% +6  96% 2 - 2 C- -2 B +6 B- B- D- D -7 D+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 274 @Georgia Southern L 62 - 80 33% -6  6% 2 - 3 F -21 F -14 F+ F F+ D- -8 F D D-
 Tue, Dec 2 144 @North Texas L 75 - 77 13% -1  35% 2 - 4 C+ +2 A+ +16 A+ F A+ F -14 F F+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 225 @New Orleans W 85 - 76 24% +4  77% 3 - 4 1 - 0 B +9 A +12 C+ B+ A+ C- -3 D- B+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 270 SE Louisiana L 71 - 74 OT 55% -3  4% 3 - 5 1 - 1 D- -12 D -6 C D D- D -7 D D C+
 Mon, Dec 15 88 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 16% +1  56% 3 - 6 1 - 2 D+ -7 B- +5 D+ B A+ F -14 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 17 266 @Nicholls St. L 64 - 79 32% -11  0% 3 - 7 1 - 3 F -18 F -12 D F+ F D -6 D D F
 Mon, Dec 29 8 @Iowa St. L 61 - 89 1% -12  2% 3 - 8 C- -4 C+ +2 B F B D- -7 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 255 @Incarnate Word L 56 - 73 30% -9  0% 3 - 9 1 - 4 F -19 F -20 F F F C -0 C- B F+
 Mon, Jan 5 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 81 41% -8  10% 3 - 10 1 - 5 F -22 F+ -9 D- C+ F F -13 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 85 9% -15  0% 3 - 11 1 - 6 D -11 B- +5 A- D+ F F -17 F+ F F+
 Mon, Jan 12 196 @Lamar L 56 - 64 21% +1  59% 3 - 12 1 - 7 D+ -7 F -12 F D- D+ B- +3 F+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 300 East Texas A&M W 81 - 70 62% -3  25% 4 - 12 2 - 7 C -0 B- +5 C+ B- D- D+ -5 F B- B-
 Mon, Jan 19 280 Northwestern St. W 82 - 80 58% -4  4% 5 - 12 3 - 7 D+ -8 A+ +24 A+ A+ C- F -31 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 149 UT Rio Grande Valley L 51 - 68 30% -8  10% 5 - 13 3 - 8 F -19 F -17 C D- F D+ -5 F A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 255 Incarnate Word W 81 - 75 52% -6  21% 6 - 13 4 - 8 C- -2 D+ -3 F A- D- C -0 D- C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 73 21% -0  45% 6 - 14 4 - 9 C -2 A- +10 A+ F C+ F -12 F A- C+
 Mon, Feb 2 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 57 - 74 14% -15  0% 6 - 15 4 - 10 D- -13 F+ -8 D- F A+ D -7 B- F A
 Sat, Feb 7 270 @SE Louisiana L 47 - 55 33% -6  1% 6 - 16 4 - 11 D- -11 F -15 F F D+ C+ +2 F+ D+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 88 @McNeese St. L 69 - 73 7% -5  4% 6 - 17 4 - 12 B- +5 C +0 D+ D B B +4 F+ A- B
 Sat, Feb 14 225 New Orleans L 75 - 76 45%
 Mon, Feb 16 266 Nicholls St. W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 280 @Northwestern St. L 67 - 71 35%
 Mon, Feb 23 300 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 71 40%
 Sat, Feb 28 105 Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 74 19%
 Mon, Mar 2 196 Lamar L 68 - 70 41%
Totals 8 - 21 6 - 16 -8 C- -3 C- D C- D -5 F+ D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- D C C- 41% 21% 38% C C- C- F D C- D+ D+ D+ D F+ C+ D- F+ 43% 15% 41% D- F+ D+ C- D+ C+ B- C- C+
1.05 56% 33% 34% -2 0 0.99 29% 0.8 .24 18% .28 69% .19 1.16 67% 37% 37% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.1 .35 18% .28 73% .21
Nov
8		 UC San Diego F B+ F C- C+ 34% 22% 44% C- C+ F F F F C- F F C- D- C F F 36% 16% 48% B F+ C C C B- B F C+
0.86 65% 27% 32% -1 0 0.98 19% 0.9 .16 23% .26 36% .09 1.12 67% 38% 42% +9 0 1.20 27% 1.0 .27 17% .23 77% .17
Nov
13		 Louisiana Monroe F D F+ D F 45% 11% 45% B- F+ F+ F F B- F A+ D- B C+ C- C+ C- 43% 15% 42% F+ D+ A+ C- A A- A+ F A+
1.03 56% 33% 32% -3 +2 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 14% .17 80% .13 0.87 52% 38% 32% -4 +1 0.96 12% 1.0 .12 21% .13 86% .11
Nov
25		 Bellarmine D B+ F C+ F+ 32% 25% 43% D F+ D- A+ B+ B A+ F D- D F A+ F+ F 45% 19% 36% B- F A+ A+ A+ B- F F F
1.13 71% 18% 37% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.7 .50 13% .45 38% .17 1.21 89% 25% 40% +15 +1 1.33 6% 0.0 .00 18% .40 90% .36
Nov
26		 The Citadel B A+ A D B 38% 13% 49% C B- C+ C+ B- D- C- F D D C- A+ F+ D+ 30% 15% 55% C- D+ D- F F D- B+ F C-
1.23 82% 50% 32% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 17% .27 62% .16 1.11 57% 0% 38% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.2 .39 15% .22 91% .20
Nov
29		 Georgia Southern F D F F F 52% 9% 39% B+ F+ D- F F F+ F+ F F D- D A+ F F 46% 9% 44% D- F D- C D D- B- A+ A
0.93 54% 25% 28% -7 +3 0.93 30% 0.8 .24 22% .29 67% .19 1.20 60% 20% 42% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.1 .35 12% .31 56% .17
Dec
2		 North Texas A+ A+ C A+ A+ 39% 18% 43% B- A+ F F F A+ A+ F A- F D A+ F F 61% 5% 34% F F C- F F+ A+ D- A+ B+
1.21 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.23 21% 0.3 .06 6% .55 59% .33 1.24 64% 0% 64% +17 +4 1.44 35% 1.2 .42 24% .40 47% .19
Dec
6		 New Orleans A C- B- B- C+ 46% 19% 35% C+ C+ C+ A B+ A+ A+ B- A+ C- C- A+ F D+ 44% 12% 44% F D- A- C+ B+ F C+ A+ B+
1.29 55% 44% 35% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.3 .45 8% .49 77% .38 1.15 59% 17% 41% +3 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 14% .35 65% .23
Dec
13		 SE Louisiana D C F C+ D+ 48% 12% 40% A C B- F D D- D F F+ D C C+ C- D 39% 24% 37% C- D D+ D+ D C+ F D F
1.01 58% 17% 35% -2 +2 1.02 34% 0.8 .29 23% .33 67% .22 1.05 58% 33% 33% -1 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .30 19% .44 72% .31
Dec
15		 McNeese St. B- F F A+ C- 27% 27% 47% F+ D+ C- A B A+ D A C- F F D A+ F 46% 19% 35% C- F B+ F F C- A+ C- A+
1.13 42% 17% 43% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.3 .46 17% .34 82% .28 1.30 86% 44% 24% +9 +1 1.21 30% 2.1 .65 13% .17 78% .13
Dec
17		 Nicholls St. F C B F F+ 62% 17% 21% A- D F A+ F+ F A+ F B D F F B+ D- 39% 19% 42% C D C F D F A+ F A-
0.93 62% 43% 22% -1 +2 1.05 19% 1.4 .27 26% .49 64% .31 1.14 68% 45% 29% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.2 .31 10% .18 73% .13
Dec
29		 Iowa St. C+ A+ C+ D A 19% 45% 36% F B F A+ F B A A+ A+ D- F A+ A+ A+ 41% 25% 34% B A+ F F F D+ F D+ F
0.92 89% 38% 29% +4 -4 1.00 10% 1.3 .13 21% .32 82% .27 1.34 83% 9% 27% -1 0 1.00 53% 1.4 .75 14% .66 71% .47
Jan
3		 Incarnate Word F F+ F F F 53% 19% 28% C+ F C- F F F F F F C F+ F+ A C- 36% 20% 45% D C- A D+ B F+ A- D- B+
0.84 50% 30% 27% -9 +1 0.87 32% 0.3 .10 21% .21 55% .11 1.09 65% 45% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 12% .20 75% .15
Jan
5		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F+ B F+ F D- 35% 20% 45% D+ D- B- C- C+ F D C+ D+ F D- F B- F 46% 23% 31% C F F C- F D+ A F B+
0.94 65% 30% 23% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.0 .32 25% .36 74% .27 1.17 63% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 45% 1.0 .45 16% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Stephen F. Austin B- A B- C- A- 45% 17% 38% B A- C F+ D+ F B+ A+ A F F F C+ D 40% 8% 52% F F+ F B F F+ C+ F D+
1.07 68% 43% 31% +4 +1 1.12 30% 0.9 .26 22% .35 82% .29 1.36 67% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 49% 0.9 .43 10% .21 83% .18
Jan
12		 Lamar F F+ F F F 43% 21% 36% C+ F B F D- D+ A- C+ A- B- D B+ D- D- 36% 21% 43% F F+ B+ B+ A- A+ F C- F
0.90 50% 22% 27% -11 0 0.81 36% 0.6 .23 19% .46 70% .32 1.03 60% 33% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .25 26% .50 74% .37
Jan
17		 East Texas A&M B- D- D+ A+ C+ 43% 13% 43% C+ C+ B- C B- D- A+ D A+ D+ F+ B+ F F 38% 15% 48% C- F F+ A+ B- B- D- A+ C+
1.18 50% 33% 45% +3 +1 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 20% .55 67% .37 1.02 67% 29% 39% +6 +1 1.15 30% 0.6 .18 20% .29 50% .15
Jan
19		 Northwestern St. A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% C+ A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ C A+ F F+ F D- F 46% 15% 39% F F F D- F D- F D- F
1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35 1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40
Jan
24		 UT Rio Grande Valley F D B- B+ C+ 37% 24% 39% C- C C+ F D- F F F F D+ F+ A+ F F 58% 4% 38% F F A A+ A+ C A+ F A+
0.84 53% 40% 38% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.6 .18 31% .19 63% .12 1.12 68% 0% 44% +10 +4 1.29 20% 0.4 .08 18% .08 100% .08
Jan
27		 Incarnate Word D+ D F F F 61% 15% 24% B+ F A+ D+ A- D- A+ B+ A+ C A+ F F D- 39% 18% 43% D- D- F A C A+ F A+ F+
1.12 54% 29% 27% -7 +2 0.93 45% 1.1 .48 19% .64 78% .50 1.04 37% 56% 48% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.7 .30 28% .42 59% .25
Jan
31		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- C B- A+ A+ 29% 24% 46% D- A+ B F F C+ C A+ A- F F A+ F+ F 60% 13% 28% F F F A+ A- C+ F+ C D-
1.17 58% 40% 53% +14 -1 1.27 34% 0.2 .07 20% .41 85% .35 1.20 71% 17% 38% +7 +3 1.21 37% 0.5 .19 18% .42 67% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 UT Rio Grande Valley F+ F B- D+ F+ 42% 20% 38% B- D- C- F F A+ F B+ F+ D B+ A D+ B 41% 9% 50% F+ B- F F F A F F F
0.92 43% 40% 32% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.3 .10 11% .24 77% .18 1.20 50% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 47% 1.3 .59 23% .38 94% .36
Feb
7		 SE Louisiana F F+ F F F 46% 23% 31% B- F B+ F F D+ C- C C- C+ D- F C+ F 34% 27% 39% C+ F+ F B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+
0.83 50% 11% 25% -14 0 0.74 37% 0.5 .17 21% .36 75% .27 0.97 64% 45% 31% +3 -1 1.05 37% 0.8 .30 28% .17 57% .10
Feb
9		 McNeese St. C C+ A- F D+ 40% 23% 36% C- D+ D- C D B D+ A+ B B D+ F B D- 60% 19% 21% F+ F+ A+ F A- B C B+ B-
1.02 58% 45% 24% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 22% .36 89% .32 1.08 62% 56% 30% +5 +2 1.15 22% 1.2 .26 16% .30 71% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.3 0.2 0.4 6th
7th 0.7 1.6 0.2 2.5 7th
8th 1.1 5.9 1.8 8.8 8th
9th 0.3 7.7 5.6 0.2 13.9 9th
10th 0.0 5.3 11.9 1.3 18.5 10th
11th 2.7 15.3 4.2 0.0 22.2 11th
12th 6.1 17.4 9.7 0.4 33.6 12th
Total 6.1 20.1 30.6 25.4 13.5 3.9 0.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12 0.5% 0.5
9-13 3.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.9
8-14 13.5% 13.5
7-15 25.4% 25.4
6-16 30.6% 30.6
5-17 20.1% 20.1
4-18 6.1% 6.1
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.1%