Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.4 258
Expected Predictive Rating -6.8 271
Pace 65.3 270
Improvement -5.1 351

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 192 C- C- C+ D+ D+
Defense D+ 305 D D C- F+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 258 D 52% 319 -3.7 302
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 82 C- 37% 196 +1.6 94
Three Pointers 39% 227 B- 36% 90 +0.2 167
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 288 C- -1.1 213
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 230
Second Chance C+ 31.4% 155 D 0.92 314 C- 0.29 222
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 115
Freethrows D+ 0.28 273 D+ 70% 267 D+ 0.19 284
Total Offense C- -1.1 192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 18 D+ 62% 281 -6.0 352
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 284 D- 44% 334 +0.3 162
Three Pointers 37% 298 C- 35% 231 +1.5 120
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -0.8 288 D -1.1 213
1st FG Attempt 1.10 310 D -4.2 311
Second Chance D+ 32.6% 269 D 1.12 308 D 0.36 308
Turnovers C- 16.5% 206
Freethrows F+ 0.38 345 C- 73% 233 F+ 0.28 346
Total Defense D+ -4.4 305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 309 16.6 64
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 268 0.24 345
Improvement -2.5 #309 -2.6 #304

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 2% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 14% 7% 25%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 31 - 42 - 11
Quad 48 - 810 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 103 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 11% -18  0% 0 - 1 F -26 D -6 D- F A+ F -23 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 29 @Indiana L 61 - 69 3% -10  12% 0 - 2 B +10 C- -2 C D+ B+ A +11 A+ C B-
 Thu, Nov 20 338 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 73% +8  98% 1 - 2 D+ -6 B +6 A- C- B F -12 F B F+
 Sat, Nov 22 89 High Point L 80 - 91 15% -5  37% 1 - 3 D+ -5 A- +10 D- A+ A+ F -16 D F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 87 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 21% +5  96% 2 - 3 1 - 0 B- +7 C+ +2 A- A- C B +5 B- D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 267 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 41% -3  17% 2 - 4 1 - 1 D -10 D -5 F A A D -6 D- B- F+
 Mon, Dec 8 225 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 31% -8  1% 2 - 5 1 - 2 C -1 B +7 B+ A- D+ D- -8 F B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 50 @TCU L 65 - 69 5% +4  76% 2 - 6 B +10 B- +5 B+ D+ B B +5 A F D-
 Sun, Dec 21 315 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 74% +10  93% 3 - 6 B+ +12 B+ +9 C+ B- A+ B- +4 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 270 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 64% +4  87% 4 - 6 2 - 2 C -0 C -0 C B- B+ C -0 B C D+
 Sat, Jan 3 298 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 70% +9  96% 5 - 6 3 - 2 B- +6 D -6 F+ F+ A+ A +13 B+ A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 20% -8  1% 5 - 7 3 - 3 D -9 C- -1 F C- A F+ -10 C F D
 Sat, Jan 10 199 @Lamar L 51 - 63 28% -5  5% 5 - 8 3 - 4 D- -11 F -16 D+ F D B- +3 C B+ A
 Mon, Jan 12 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 46 - 56 12% -7  6% 5 - 9 3 - 5 C- -3 F -22 F F D+ A+ +19 A+ D B+
 Sat, Jan 17 279 Northwestern St. W 76 - 74 67% -4  14% 6 - 9 4 - 5 D+ -8 C +1 D- A+ D D- -9 F C+ B
 Mon, Jan 19 299 East Texas A&M L 58 - 80 71% -11  12% 6 - 10 4 - 6 F -33 F -10 F C+ A+ F -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 201 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 79 50% -10  2% 6 - 11 4 - 7 D- -14 D+ -2 B D F F -11 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 27 298 @Houston Christian L 75 - 81 48% +6  75% 6 - 12 4 - 8 D -11 D- -6 D+ D F D+ -4 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 149 UT Rio Grande Valley L 93 - 106 39% -7  13% 6 - 13 4 - 9 F+ -15 A+ +15 A+ D- D F -30 F F F
 Mon, Feb 2 201 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71 - 69 28% +4  90% 7 - 13 5 - 9 C+ +2 B- +4 A F B C -1 D A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 87 @McNeese St. L 64 - 81 10% -6  2% 7 - 14 5 - 10 D -8 C +1 B B+ F F -11 F A- F+
 Mon, Feb 9 270 @SE Louisiana L 62 - 74 41% -12  6% 7 - 15 5 - 11 F+ -15 D+ -2 F D+ B- F -15 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 14 267 Nicholls St. W 77 - 73 63%
 Mon, Feb 16 225 New Orleans W 79 - 78 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 299 @East Texas A&M L 72 - 73 49%
 Mon, Feb 23 279 @Northwestern St. L 70 - 72 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 199 Lamar W 71 - 70 50%
 Mon, Mar 2 105 Stephen F. Austin L 68 - 75 26%
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 14 -5 F -1 B- C- D+ D -4 B- D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D C- B- C- 36% 25% 39% D+ C- C+ D C- C+ D+ D+ D+ D+ D+ D- C- D 46% 17% 37% D- D D+ D D C- F+ C- F+
1.07 52% 37% 36% -1 -1 0.98 31% 0.9 .29 16% .28 70% .19 1.15 62% 44% 35% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.1 .36 16% .38 73% .20
Nov
3		 Colorado St. D C- A- F D- 26% 28% 46% D D- F F F A+ A- F C+ F F F F F 32% 18% 50% B- F F+ F F D- F F F
0.98 57% 47% 24% -5 -2 0.89 17% 0.6 .10 8% .35 57% .20 1.49 79% 50% 50% +21 0 1.43 38% 1.8 .67 15% .54 90% .49
Nov
16		 Indiana C- F+ F A+ B- 26% 41% 33% F C D C+ D+ B+ F B- F A D A+ A+ A+ 48% 7% 45% D A+ F+ A- C B- F A+ F
0.95 43% 27% 44% -3 -3 0.89 21% 1.1 .24 14% .16 78% .13 1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +2 0.95 36% 0.9 .33 16% .48 69% .33
Nov
20		 Southern Indiana B B B+ A+ A- 55% 27% 18% C- A- C+ D- C- B A+ F A- F F F A+ F 42% 21% 37% D F A C- B F+ D+ F F+
1.19 64% 43% 44% +8 0 1.18 35% 0.8 .29 14% .46 66% .30 1.11 67% 58% 24% +2 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .18 14% .33 76% .25
Nov
22		 High Point A- F+ B+ D D 32% 22% 46% D D- B A+ A+ A+ A B+ A F D F B+ D+ 56% 8% 35% F D F F F D+ F F F
1.22 50% 45% 30% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.4 .54 15% .40 77% .31 1.39 67% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 54% 1.5 .82 12% .54 84% .45
Dec
1		 McNeese St. C+ A F A+ A 26% 28% 46% F A- B A- A- C A D+ A- B B F A+ C+ 42% 29% 29% A- B- A F D A+ B F C
1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34 1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23
Dec
6		 Nicholls St. D F+ F F F 42% 31% 27% F+ F A- B+ A A A+ D A+ D A A+ F D 49% 10% 41% F D- A F+ B- F+ F F+ F
1.03 53% 29% 8% -15 -1 0.69 44% 1.2 .51 17% .55 73% .41 1.14 45% 0% 53% +2 +2 1.10 19% 1.2 .22 12% .66 71% .47
Dec
8		 New Orleans B F A+ A A 22% 28% 50% F B+ C A+ A- D+ C D+ C D- F+ F F F 50% 24% 26% D F D+ A+ B+ A+ F D- F
1.21 36% 64% 40% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.3 .47 16% .36 71% .26 1.22 67% 50% 64% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .29 26% .51 81% .41
Dec
15		 TCU B- C- F A+ B+ 43% 18% 39% B- B+ D+ C- D+ B F F F B F+ A A+ A+ 44% 24% 31% B- A B+ F F D- F C F
1.01 52% 22% 47% +3 +1 1.08 23% 1.0 .23 19% .17 56% .10 1.08 70% 27% 14% -6 0 0.89 29% 1.7 .48 12% .45 72% .32
Dec
21		 Northern Arizona B+ D+ C- A+ B- 34% 15% 51% C- C+ B C- B- A+ A+ F A+ B- D B+ F F 41% 22% 37% D+ F A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ C-
1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33 0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19
Dec
30		 SE Louisiana C F F A+ C 31% 22% 47% C- C D A+ B- B+ F C F C B- A+ A+ A- 50% 16% 34% F B F A C D+ C- F D-
1.09 47% 17% 46% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.5 .39 17% .26 75% .20 0.96 54% 22% 21% -11 +1 0.82 34% 0.7 .24 17% .33 80% .26
Jan
3		 Houston Christian D C+ A- F D- 36% 20% 45% D F+ F D+ F+ A+ F+ C+ F+ A B+ B A A 53% 19% 28% D- B+ D+ A+ A+ B+ A- A+ A
1.09 65% 45% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 12% .20 75% .15 0.84 50% 30% 27% -9 +1 0.87 32% 0.3 .10 21% .21 55% .11
Jan
5		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- F D- B- F 40% 26% 34% C- F B+ F C- A B- C- C+ F+ D- F B+ C 35% 8% 58% D- C F D+ F D D F F
1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25 1.23 67% 50% 30% +1 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24
Jan
10		 Lamar F A F C- D+ 44% 22% 33% C+ D+ C F F D D- F F B- A F C- B- 47% 22% 31% F C D- A+ B+ A F B F+
0.83 70% 10% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.1 .03 19% .32 38% .12 1.02 43% 50% 36% -4 0 0.96 38% 0.7 .26 21% .33 69% .23
Jan
12		 Stephen F. Austin F D D- F F 53% 24% 22% C+ F F+ F F D+ C- F+ D A+ B A A+ A+ 39% 27% 33% D+ A+ D+ D+ D B+ F A+ F
0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18 0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22
Jan
17		 Northwestern St. C F A+ B D- 35% 28% 37% F+ D- C A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ D- F F C F 47% 19% 35% F F B D+ C+ B F D+ F
1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42 1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36
Jan
19		 East Texas A&M F F B F F 39% 24% 37% D- F B- C C+ A+ D+ A+ B F D- F F F 51% 9% 40% F F F F F F F+ D F+
0.96 37% 42% 17% -17 0 0.67 35% 1.1 .38 10% .29 88% .26 1.33 65% 50% 39% +8 +2 1.22 32% 1.6 .52 10% .31 71% .22
Jan
24		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D+ C- B+ A- B+ 39% 18% 43% C B B- F D F F F F F B- F F F 55% 20% 25% D- F F F F A- F A F
1.03 58% 44% 38% +4 0 1.10 33% 0.7 .22 25% .29 60% .17 1.15 50% 50% 50% +4 +1 1.13 39% 1.2 .45 22% .67 58% .39
Jan
27		 Houston Christian D- F A+ A+ D+ 39% 18% 43% D+ D+ B+ F D F A+ F B+ D+ B- B+ A B+ 61% 15% 24% F B- F F F B- F F F
1.04 37% 56% 48% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.7 .30 28% .42 59% .25 1.12 54% 29% 27% -7 +2 0.93 45% 1.1 .48 19% .64 78% .50
Jan
31		 UT Rio Grande Valley A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 27% 40% D A+ A- F D- D B+ B+ A- F F F F F 42% 14% 44% D F B+ F F F F F+ F
1.29 82% 50% 48% +19 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29 1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27
Feb
2		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B- B F A+ A 52% 18% 30% B A F F F B B C- B- C D B D D- 43% 28% 30% B D A A+ A C- F+ F F
1.08 65% 25% 46% +7 +1 1.18 20% 0.5 .10 18% .45 71% .32 1.05 60% 31% 36% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.7 .16 17% .42 74% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 McNeese St. C F+ D+ A B- 39% 9% 52% B+ B A+ F+ B+ F A+ F+ A+ F F A+ F F 53% 9% 37% F F A B A- F+ F A+ F
1.03 46% 33% 41% +1 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41 1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36
Feb
9		 SE Louisiana D+ C- F C- F 29% 33% 38% F F B- F D+ B- D- A+ B- F B- F D F 32% 26% 43% C+ F+ F+ F F F B- A- B
1.01 57% 19% 33% -7 -2 0.83 35% 0.8 .30 18% .32 94% .30 1.21 53% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.4 .45 11% .30 63% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 0.8 1.6 5th
6th 0.8 3.4 0.5 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 9.0 3.4 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 2.1 15.9 10.6 0.6 29.1 8th
9th 0.3 10.0 10.6 0.7 21.7 9th
10th 0.0 3.3 10.4 1.4 0.0 15.1 10th
11th 0.8 6.6 2.4 0.0 9.8 11th
12th 1.7 2.0 0.1 3.8 12th
Total 2.6 12.0 25.0 29.5 21.1 8.2 1.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-12 8.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.1
9-13 21.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 21.0
8-14 29.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 29.5
7-15 25.0% 25.0
6-16 12.0% 12.0
5-17 2.6% 2.6
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 2.6%