Preseason Rankings
Incarnate Word
Southland
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#209
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.8#318
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#175
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#259
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 14.0% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.1 13.9
.500 or above 55.5% 78.0% 51.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.9% 80.4% 64.6%
Conference Champion 9.1% 16.9% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 1.3% 4.4%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round8.2% 14.2% 7.2%
Second Round0.5% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 14.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 43 - 9
Quad 412 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 94   @ Colorado St. L 62-73 14%    
  Nov 16, 2025 34   @ Indiana L 60-80 4%    
  Nov 20, 2025 298   Southern Indiana W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 01, 2025 96   McNeese St. L 64-69 33%    
  Dec 06, 2025 233   @ Nicholls St. L 68-70 44%    
  Dec 08, 2025 312   @ New Orleans W 74-71 59%    
  Dec 15, 2025 55   @ TCU L 59-75 9%    
  Dec 20, 2025 263   Northern Arizona W 72-66 68%    
  Dec 30, 2025 243   SE Louisiana W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 03, 2026 289   Houston Christian W 69-62 74%    
  Jan 05, 2026 270   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 10, 2026 218   @ Lamar L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 12, 2026 212   @ Stephen F. Austin L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 17, 2026 255   Northwestern St. W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 19, 2026 333   East Texas A&M W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 24, 2026 221   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 26, 2026 289   @ Houston Christian W 66-65 55%    
  Jan 31, 2026 270   UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 02, 2026 221   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 07, 2026 96   @ McNeese St. L 61-72 18%    
  Feb 09, 2026 243   @ SE Louisiana L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 14, 2026 233   Nicholls St. W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 16, 2026 312   New Orleans W 77-68 76%    
  Feb 21, 2026 333   @ East Texas A&M W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 23, 2026 255   @ Northwestern St. L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 28, 2026 218   Lamar W 67-63 61%    
  Mar 02, 2026 212   Stephen F. Austin W 68-65 60%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 12 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 3.9 3.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.8 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.8 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.0 4.5 5.7 7.0 8.2 9.1 9.6 9.7 9.2 8.3 7.2 5.5 3.9 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
21-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
20-2 94.6% 1.4    1.2 0.2
19-3 80.1% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
18-4 56.5% 2.2    1.5 0.7 0.0
17-5 30.8% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
16-6 12.8% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
15-7 4.1% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.9 2.5 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.1% 60.0% 60.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.6% 54.2% 54.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
20-2 1.4% 44.5% 44.5% 12.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8
19-3 2.2% 36.6% 36.6% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4
18-4 3.9% 31.7% 31.7% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.7
17-5 5.5% 23.9% 23.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.2
16-6 7.2% 16.9% 16.9% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 6.0
15-7 8.3% 13.0% 13.0% 14.8 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 7.2
14-8 9.2% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.6
13-9 9.7% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.3
12-10 9.6% 2.5% 2.5% 17.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.4
11-11 9.1% 1.4% 1.4% 18.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.0
10-12 8.2% 0.9% 0.9% 17.6 0.0 0.1 8.2
9-13 7.0% 0.5% 0.5% 18.0 0.0 7.0
8-14 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.7
7-15 4.5% 4.5
6-16 3.0% 3.0
5-17 2.3% 2.3
4-18 1.3% 1.3
3-19 0.7% 0.7
2-20 0.3% 0.3
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 2.5 1.6 0.7 91.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.0 49.4 50.6
Lose Out 0.0%