Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#162
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#211
Pace63.1#334
Improvement+4.2#10

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#104
First Shot+1.1#141
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#69
Layup/Dunks-1.8#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#116
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+2.0#51

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#282
First Shot-3.8#308
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#140
Layups/Dunks-4.8#329
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#42
Freethrows-2.5#331
Improvement+2.2#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 9.0% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 65.9% 71.6% 44.2%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 85.0% 63.3%
Conference Champion 4.2% 5.0% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.7% 3.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round8.1% 9.0% 5.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 91 @Colorado St. L 64-98 19%     0 - 1 -24.9 -4.8 -22.3
  Sun, Nov 16 29 @Indiana L 61-69 6%     0 - 2 +9.6 +2.7 +6.3
  Thu, Nov 20 339 Southern Indiana W 87-81 85%     1 - 2 -5.4 +7.6 -13.2
  Sat, Nov 22 101 High Point L 80-91 30%     1 - 3 -5.7 +11.6 -18.1
  Mon, Dec 1 70 McNeese St. W 71-67 31%     2 - 3 1 - 0 +8.9 +5.9 +3.2
  Sat, Dec 6 234 @Nicholls St. L 67-74 54%     2 - 4 1 - 1 -8.4 -0.5 -8.4
  Mon, Dec 8 241 @New Orleans L 83-84 55%     2 - 5 1 - 2 -2.6 +9.7 -12.3
  Mon, Dec 15 53 @TCU L 65-69 11%     2 - 6 +8.9 +7.0 +1.5
  Sun, Dec 21 289 Northern Arizona W 90-66 81%     3 - 6 +14.3 +16.7 -1.6
  Tue, Dec 30 266 SE Louisiana W 73-65 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 279 Houston Christian W 76-67 80%    
  Mon, Jan 5 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-75 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 253 @Lamar W 70-68 57%    
  Mon, Jan 12 132 @Stephen F. Austin L 69-74 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 273 Northwestern St. W 76-67 79%    
  Mon, Jan 19 302 East Texas A&M W 79-68 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-67 71%    
  Mon, Jan 26 279 @Houston Christian W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Jan 31 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-72 66%    
  Mon, Feb 2 218 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-69 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 70 @McNeese St. L 66-77 16%    
  Mon, Feb 9 266 @SE Louisiana W 70-68 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 234 Nicholls St. W 76-69 74%    
  Mon, Feb 16 241 New Orleans W 80-73 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 302 @East Texas A&M W 76-71 66%    
  Mon, Feb 23 273 @Northwestern St. W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Feb 28 253 Lamar W 73-65 76%    
  Mon, Mar 2 132 Stephen F. Austin W 72-71 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 13 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.8 5.2 3.2 1.1 0.1 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.8 7.0 5.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 21.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.9 6.8 3.6 1.0 0.1 17.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.1 5.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 3.0 1.2 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.2 8.0 10.9 13.0 14.7 13.7 11.7 8.4 4.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
19-3 83.6% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
18-4 52.1% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.0
17-5 24.2% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.1
16-6 9.8% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
15-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.1% 37.5% 37.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-3 0.8% 39.6% 39.6% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
18-4 2.4% 29.2% 29.2% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.7
17-5 4.8% 22.2% 22.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 3.7
16-6 8.4% 19.4% 19.4% 13.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.8
15-7 11.7% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 10.1
14-8 13.7% 8.4% 8.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 12.5
13-9 14.7% 5.6% 5.6% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 13.9
12-10 13.0% 3.5% 3.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 12.6
11-11 10.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.7
10-12 8.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.9
9-13 5.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.1
8-14 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
7-15 1.7% 1.7
6-16 0.9% 0.9
5-17 0.3% 0.3
4-18 0.1% 0.1
3-19 0.0% 0.0
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.1 1.9 0.3 91.8 0.0%