Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
88 McNeese St. 46.1%   12   18 - 5 13 - 3 +5.9      +3.2 92 +2.7 97 66.1 247 +8.2 69 +5.0 2
105 Stephen F. Austin 37.7%   20 - 3 15 - 1 +4.4      +1.1 134 +3.3 84 66.5 241 +7.9 72 +12.4 1
149 UT Rio Grande Valley 8.4%   12 - 11 10 - 6 +0.6      -0.4 166 +0.9 138 68.6 184 -1.1 182 -0.6 3
196 Lamar 1.9%   10 - 13 7 - 9 -2.4      -1.9 218 -0.6 189 64.1 300 -4.7 236 -5.2 7
198 TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0%   9 - 12 9 - 7 -2.5      -4.5 294 +2.0 114 67.1 224 -2.6 210 -1.8 4
225 New Orleans 1.9%   11 - 14 9 - 7 -3.4      +0.6 149 -4.0 297 73.3 60 -1.8 199 -2.6 6
255 Incarnate Word 0.2%   7 - 15 5 - 11 -5.4      -1.0 193 -4.4 307 65.3 270 -6.9 272 -7.6 10
266 Nicholls St. 0.5%   9 - 15 9 - 7 -6.0      -2.9 253 -3.0 269 70.3 133 -4.4 233 -2.2 5
270 SE Louisiana 0.1%   7 - 17 5 - 11 -6.2      -6.7 337 +0.6 149 64.9 279 -7.6 291 -8.2 11
280 Northwestern St. 0.1%   5 - 18 5 - 11 -6.9      -3.8 274 -3.1 270 64.1 304 -9.5 315 -7.5 9
298 Houston Christian 0.0%   6 - 17 4 - 12 -7.8      -2.6 241 -5.3 322 61.8 344 -9.3 309 -9.1 12
300 East Texas A&M 0.0%   8 - 16 5 - 11 -8.0      -7.2 343 -0.8 201 71.5 105 -5.9 261 -7.3 8


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 9 105 Stephen F. Austin 74 300 East Texas A&M 70   
Mon, Feb 9 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi 78 225 New Orleans 84   
Mon, Feb 9 196 Lamar 68 280 Northwestern St. 70   
Mon, Feb 9 298 Houston Christian 69 88 McNeese St. 73   
Mon, Feb 9 270 SE Louisiana 74 255 Incarnate Word 62   
Mon, Feb 9 266 Nicholls St. 72 149 UT Rio Grande Valley 92   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 105 Stephen F. Austin 72 149 UT Rio Grande Valley 71 53%   
Sat, Feb 14 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi 69 196 Lamar 66 61%   
Sat, Feb 14 266 Nicholls St. 73 255 Incarnate Word 77 63%   
Sat, Feb 14 280 Northwestern St. 67 270 SE Louisiana 65 59%   
Sat, Feb 14 298 Houston Christian 75 225 New Orleans 77 56%   
Sat, Feb 14 88 McNeese St. 77 300 East Texas A&M 66 85%   
Mon, Feb 16 196 Lamar 67 149 UT Rio Grande Valley 73 72%   
Mon, Feb 16 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi 66 105 Stephen F. Austin 70 65%   
Mon, Feb 16 225 New Orleans 78 255 Incarnate Word 79 54%   
Mon, Feb 16 298 Houston Christian 73 266 Nicholls St. 72 54%   
Mon, Feb 16 270 SE Louisiana 66 300 East Texas A&M 67 54%   
Mon, Feb 16 88 McNeese St. 75 280 Northwestern St. 65 82%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.8 20.9 78.6 0.5 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 1.1 93.3 6.7
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.2 0.0 2.3 83.5 10.5 2.9 0.6 0.1
Lamar 6.1 3.2 11.1 16.9 22.9 34.7 8.2 2.4 0.6 0.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.2 0.2 22.5 44.8 20.8 8.9 2.6 0.3 0.0
New Orleans 4.8 0.0 11.1 30.0 31.4 19.9 6.6 0.9 0.1
Incarnate Word 8.7 0.3 1.4 4.7 13.1 30.4 21.5 14.8 10.0 4.0
Nicholls St. 5.3 0.0 5.8 19.7 27.3 30.8 14.8 1.6 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 9.3 0.2 0.7 2.7 7.4 23.2 22.0 19.1 16.1 8.7
Northwestern St. 9.3 0.1 0.3 1.3 7.2 25.3 23.7 20.2 14.1 7.9
Houston Christian 10.5 0.1 0.4 2.5 8.8 13.9 18.5 22.2 33.6
East Texas A&M 9.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 5.4 20.2 22.5 21.2 17.6 11.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 23 - 6 0.0 0.4 1.8 8.3 22.2 38.3 29.0
Stephen F. Austin 19 - 3 24 - 5 0.0 0.6 3.6 13.8 29.4 34.8 17.8
UT Rio Grande Valley 14 - 8 16 - 13 0.1 2.6 10.9 27.4 33.8 20.6 4.5
Lamar 10 - 12 13 - 16 1.1 8.0 21.1 30.4 25.7 11.0 2.6
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 12 - 15 0.9 6.5 20.7 32.4 27.4 10.7 1.4
New Orleans 12 - 10 14 - 17 3.6 16.3 30.1 29.7 15.8 4.2 0.4
Incarnate Word 8 - 14 10 - 18 2.6 12.0 24.4 30.5 20.9 8.3 1.4
Nicholls St. 11 - 11 11 - 19 8.1 26.7 32.9 21.5 9.0 1.6 0.1
SE Louisiana 7 - 15 9 - 21 6.4 19.3 29.3 25.6 14.1 4.7 0.6
Northwestern St. 7 - 15 7 - 22 4.0 17.8 32.8 29.0 13.2 2.9 0.4
Houston Christian 6 - 16 8 - 21 6.1 20.1 30.6 25.4 13.5 3.9 0.5
East Texas A&M 7 - 15 10 - 20 6.6 22.6 34.4 24.6 9.7 2.0 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 20.9% 6.7 14.2 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 93.3% 79.1 14.2 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0
Lamar
TX A&M Corpus Christi
New Orleans
Incarnate Word
Nicholls St.
SE Louisiana
Northwestern St.
Houston Christian
East Texas A&M


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 46.1% 46.1% 0.0% 12   6.9 33.3 5.8 0.2 53.9 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 37.7% 37.7% 0.0% 0.0 2.6 20.9 12.6 1.6 0.0 62.3 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 1.0 3.0 3.2 1.2 0.0 91.6 0.0%
Lamar 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 98.1 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.9 97.0 0.0%
New Orleans 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 98.1 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 99.4
2nd Round 9.4% 0.1 90.6 9.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 46.1% 0.0% 46.1% 5.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 37.7% 0.0% 37.7% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 8.4% 0.0% 8.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 1.9% 0.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0% 0.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.9% 0.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%