Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
80 McNeese St. 55.4%   12   5 - 2 1 - 1 22 - 7 18 - 4 +7.1      +3.0 100 +4.2 64 64.6 308 +7.9 78 -4.8 8
142 Stephen F. Austin 16.7%   5 - 2 1 - 0 20 - 9 15 - 7 +1.2      -0.9 190 +2.1 106 67.3 246 +2.5 134 +9.0 4
188 Incarnate Word 6.8%   2 - 4 1 - 1 14 - 14 12 - 10 -1.8      +1.4 129 -3.2 271 62.8 342 -0.9 185 +1.0 5
209 UT Rio Grande Valley 4.1%   1 - 5 0 - 1 13 - 16 11 - 11 -3.2      -1.4 208 -1.8 228 74.6 59 -5.9 260 -11.0 10
210 TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.0%   1 - 5 1 - 0 12 - 15 12 - 10 -3.3      -4.6 296 +1.4 126 68.4 214 -1.9 198 +14.7 1
214 Lamar 3.4%   3 - 3 0 - 1 14 - 15 10 - 12 -3.5      -5.6 321 +2.1 105 64.1 315 -3.2 215 -21.4 11
244 New Orleans 1.7%   2 - 7 0 - 1 11 - 20 9 - 13 -4.6      -1.4 207 -3.1 270 72.2 118 -3.9 230 -23.7 12
246 SE Louisiana 2.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 18 10 - 12 -4.7      -5.4 318 +0.7 148 67.5 240 -5.4 251 0.0 6
254 Nicholls St. 1.9%   1 - 7 1 - 0 10 - 20 10 - 12 -5.2      -4.0 279 -1.1 205 69.9 173 -9.4 298 +10.4 3
263 Houston Christian 1.8%   3 - 4 1 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 12 -5.5      -1.0 192 -4.5 328 62.8 341 -6.0 264 +13.6 2
300 East Texas A&M 0.6%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 14 -7.7      -6.1 332 -1.6 217 68.1 219 -4.9 241 0.0 6
302 Northwestern St. 0.5%   0 - 7 0 - 1 8 - 21 7 - 15 -7.8      -2.3 235 -5.5 342 63.2 330 -11.7 323 -5.1 9




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 214 Lamar 65 319 Louisiana 55   
Wed, Dec 3 142 Stephen F. Austin 73 209 UT Rio Grande Valley 60   
Wed, Dec 3 69 Memphis 86 244 New Orleans 70   
Fri, Dec 5 80 McNeese St. 92 302 Northwestern St. 54   
Fri, Dec 5 300 East Texas A&M 59 6 Connecticut 83   
Sat, Dec 6 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi 57 214 Lamar 49   
Sat, Dec 6 263 Houston Christian 85 244 New Orleans 76   
Sat, Dec 6 254 Nicholls St. 74 188 Incarnate Word 67   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 180 Austin Peay 74 209 UT Rio Grande Valley 76 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 279 Central Arkansas 69 300 East Texas A&M 70 56%   
Sun, Dec 7 302 Northwestern St. 65 246 SE Louisiana 71 72%   
Sun, Dec 7 142 Stephen F. Austin 81 360 Louisiana Monroe 62 95%   
Mon, Dec 8 244 New Orleans 75 188 Incarnate Word 74 51%   
Tue, Dec 9 80 McNeese St. 71 116 Rhode Island 70 53%   
Wed, Dec 10 214 Lamar 59 56 San Diego St. 76 93%   
Thu, Dec 11 191 Texas Arlington 73 209 UT Rio Grande Valley 75 57%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.5 70.8 18.2 6.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.1 21.8 28.8 17.7 10.8 7.3 5.1 3.3 2.2 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2
Incarnate Word 4.8 5.9 15.9 16.5 14.3 12.3 9.4 7.8 6.2 4.8 3.4 2.2 1.2
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.2 3.0 8.4 11.3 11.8 11.3 10.5 10.0 9.2 7.9 7.1 5.7 3.8
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.5 5.1 11.6 13.7 13.2 11.7 10.0 9.1 7.5 6.7 5.2 3.9 2.3
Lamar 6.6 2.2 6.2 9.3 10.5 10.9 10.6 10.5 10.0 9.4 8.3 7.1 5.1
New Orleans 7.4 0.9 3.4 6.1 7.9 9.3 10.3 11.0 11.6 11.3 10.9 9.6 7.6
SE Louisiana 7.0 2.1 5.4 7.9 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.1 10.0 9.3 8.6 6.7
Nicholls St. 6.8 1.7 5.0 8.1 10.0 10.7 11.1 10.7 10.9 9.8 9.2 7.7 5.0
Houston Christian 7.0 1.6 4.9 7.7 9.4 9.9 10.5 11.2 11.2 10.3 9.5 8.3 5.5
East Texas A&M 8.9 0.4 1.5 3.0 4.1 5.3 6.4 7.9 9.2 11.2 13.4 16.7 20.9
Northwestern St. 9.1 0.3 1.3 2.6 3.8 5.0 6.1 7.5 9.3 11.3 13.6 17.3 22.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.4 7.3 11.0 15.2 18.5 18.0 14.6 6.4
Stephen F. Austin 15 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.9 5.9 8.2 10.4 12.1 13.4 12.7 10.8 8.5 5.4 2.7 1.0 0.2
Incarnate Word 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.8 6.9 9.2 11.4 12.2 12.4 11.5 9.5 7.3 4.9 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.3 6.4 8.3 10.0 11.5 11.8 11.2 10.1 7.7 6.0 4.0 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.9 8.7 10.3 11.1 12.1 11.2 9.6 7.5 5.7 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lamar 10 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.4 7.6 9.6 11.1 11.7 11.9 10.6 8.8 6.8 4.7 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 9 - 13 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.3 7.6 9.7 11.5 12.5 12.5 11.3 9.2 6.3 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 10 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.5 6.3 8.7 10.3 11.1 11.8 11.1 10.0 7.7 5.7 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 10 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 5.9 8.4 10.7 11.7 12.3 12.0 10.4 8.5 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 10 - 12 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.4 8.7 10.8 12.2 12.2 11.7 10.2 7.6 5.4 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
East Texas A&M 8 - 14 0.2 1.1 2.7 5.0 7.6 10.0 11.6 12.0 12.0 10.6 8.7 6.6 4.8 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 7 - 15 0.2 1.0 2.8 5.5 7.9 10.5 11.9 12.5 12.2 10.4 8.2 6.4 4.5 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 70.8% 59.4 10.0 1.3 0.2 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 21.8% 14.2 6.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 5.9% 3.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.0% 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.1% 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lamar 2.2% 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 2.1% 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 1.7% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
East Texas A&M 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 55.4% 55.3% 0.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 8.8 27.7 14.5 3.0 0.3 44.6 0.2%
Stephen F. Austin 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.9 5.6 2.3 0.3 83.3 0.0%
Incarnate Word 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.6 1.6 0.4 93.3 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.5 0.6 95.9 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.9 0.7 95.1 0.0%
Lamar 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.3 96.6 0.0%
New Orleans 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 98.3 0.0%
SE Louisiana 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 97.7 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 98.2 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 98.2 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 55.4% 0.1% 55.4% 11.6% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 16.7% 0.0% 16.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 6.8% 0.1% 6.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.1% 0.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.0% 0.3% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 3.4% 0.1% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.7% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 2.3% 0.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.9% 0.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.8% 0.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0 0.0
2nd Round 13.8% 0.1 86.2 13.8
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0